These hypotheses have been committed to the registry and anchored to
Bitcoin via OpenTimestamps. Their re-evaluation date is the only
moment we can update them — and the update will record the literal
observed outcome, success or null.
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-08-04
Predicted magnitude has negative L1 coefficient against match outcome on EQ predictions over next 90d (replicates 2026-05-04 reverse-causal finding)
20260504_predicted_magnitude_has_negative_247ccebf
Reverse-causal scan on 2026-05-04 (N=1002 resolved EQ preds) returned predicted_magnitude L1 coef of -1.45, predicted_magnitude_high90 coef of -1.43, with positive coefs on region_ceiling_M (+2.60) and magnitude_min (+1.49). Pattern: predictions claiming larger quakes match LESS often, predictions h…
Threshold:
predicted_magnitude_l1_coefficient negative -0.5
SHA-256:
b300164c4e2a7e06c266212a…
Locked:
2026-05-04
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-12-31
Fault-loaded + depth sweet-spot screening (5-axis) predicts Phase 4 sustained-flow pass rate at Box Elder pilot
20260506_fault_loaded_depth_sweet_spot_sc_1be4724e
FORWARD test of the 5-axis screening refinement (4 added: fault-loaded subscore from USGS Qfaults proximity + Holocene slip + hot-spring-on-fault binary; 5 added: depth sweet-spot 500-1500m). Pass criterion: at Phase 4 single-well validation completion (5 wells, one per top-5 ranked Box Elder zone),…
Threshold:
pass_rate positive 0.6
SHA-256:
da59f7485628b060c1b090fc…
Locked:
2026-05-06
LOCKED
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re-eval 2026-05-12
IOCG Scout classifier ELITE/STRONG sites confirm via dense-array/drill within 365 days
20260512_iocg_scout_classifier_elite_stro_d3a5b682
IOCG classifier shipped 2026-05-12 with dense-array-calibrated weights against 8 dense-array IOCG-positive sensors (Antelope Field 0073 conf=0.623, Black Rock 0053 conf=0.848, Millard County 0046 conf=0.712, Millard County 0044 conf=0.464, Black Rock 0094 conf=0.505, Black Rock 0058 conf=0.431, Bake…
Threshold:
true_positive_rate positive 0.5
SHA-256:
74d15947cc2cbfc8309df3d6…
Locked:
2026-05-12
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re-eval 2026-05-12
Schumann LAIC EQ-precursor classifier ALERT/CRITICAL sites have elevated M3+ EQ rate within 365 days
20260512_schumann_laic_eq_precursor_class_87404330
Forward claim: across the 5 dense-array Schumann-capable arrays in Millard County (Delta-Oak City, Black Rock, Antelope Field, Millard County, Baker Hot Springs), sites with combined_z >= 4.0 (ALERT or CRITICAL class) will have an M3+ EQ within 30 days at least 30pct of the time over the 12-month fo…
Threshold:
true_positive_rate positive 0.3
SHA-256:
5f0e5a5c5c9129c0d94b6d74…
Locked:
2026-05-12
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re-eval 2026-11-17
Solar eclipse epochs do NOT statistically modulate M5+ EQ rate, microseism amplitude, or caldera unrest score within +/- 7 days
20260517_solar_eclipse_epochs_do_not_co_DRAFT
Antikythera ~150 BC predicted eclipses with 30 bronze gears via Saros + Inex cycles. DeepMap reproduces that math (cross_physics.eclipse_prediction_monitor) and adds the hypothesis test the Greeks could not run: does the orbital geometry that produces eclipses also correlate with terrestrial geophys…
Threshold:
p_value below_to_reject_null 0.01
SHA-256:
af5c5286cbeefd6e8d3451d8…
Locked:
2026-05-18
LOCKED
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re-eval 2029-05-18
Inner-core daily rotation H2: sub-decadal 0.5-3yr oscillation
20260518_inner_core_daily_rotation_h2_sub_0750045d
FORWARD 36-month test (lock 2026-05-18, re-eval 2029-05-18). Hypothesis: after detrending the inner-core daily rotation rate timeseries (computed via 0S2 multiplet splitting on IGETS gravity, EOST-only deduped reader post commit dbd2ab73) with a 3rd-order polynomial removing decadal drift, the Lomb-…
Threshold:
lomb_scargle_peak_z_score positive 3.0
SHA-256:
c4875d0565f49fe8d8576819…
Locked:
2026-05-18
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re-eval 2029-05-18
Inner-core daily rotation H3: anti-correlates with M7+ EQ rate at lag 30-180d
20260518_inner_core_daily_rotation_h3_ant_4b20eae9
FORWARD 36-month test (lock 2026-05-18, re-eval 2029-05-18). Bendick & Bilham 2017 GRL extension: 6-yr LOD oscillation correlates with global M7+ rate at r ~0.6. We test whether the inner-core differential rotation rate from 0S2 splitting (independent of LOD) shows the SAME anti-correlation at finer…
Threshold:
pearson_r negative -0.2
SHA-256:
916315bf3416513634439de2…
Locked:
2026-05-18
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-19
DeepMap A.4 lithium brine classifier top-decile (composite >= 70) producer-density precision >= 60 percent over 1-year forward window
20260519_deepmap_a_4_lithium_brine_classi_c64bd066
Forward test of the A.4 5-axis lithium brine classifier (commit c11600c2, 12 features prefix lbc_). Validation cohort at registration: 5 producers ELITE (Atacama 82.0 / Salton Sea 79.2 / Clayton Valley 78.0 / Great Salt Lake 78.0 / Smackover 70.2) vs 3 controls (Yellowstone 20.0 / Atlantic abyssal …
Threshold:
top_decile_known_producer_or_pathfinder_recall positive 0.6
SHA-256:
5587b936412932a4c5bcc00c…
Locked:
2026-05-19
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-19
Slichter mode v2 detection-or-publishable-null after D.1-SPRINT calibration cleanup
20260519_slichter_mode_v2_detection_or_pu_ee86f619
D.1-SPRINT forward test of the Slichter inner-core translational triplet (3.5h / 4.5h / 6.0h periods). Pre-registered prior to running v2 pipeline. Tests Smylie 1992 disputed claim vs Rosat 2005 null. v2 = v1 (today, NULL) plus 3 D.1-SPRINT calibration pieces: (1) Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loadin…
Threshold:
slichter_period_snr_or_sigma_floor positive 5.0
SHA-256:
66177049797fde965b7f4db7…
Locked:
2026-05-19
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re-eval 2027-05-20
G3 v2 forward test: DM annual modulation in per-station IGETS Delta-g residuals (de-tided + de-atmosphered), NOT in tensor L2 norm
20260520_g3_dm_annual_modulation_per_station_igets_residual
Pre-registered narrow-channel forward test of the G3 DM annual modulation moonshot. The G3 v1 SEED's tensor-L2 backtest produced a single-arm 3.1 sigma aggregate candidate (Lomb-Scargle p=0.001, peak period 440 d, phase offset +47.7 d from June 2) on retro_tensor 2005-2018 (122,712 hourly snaps, sub…
Threshold:
n_stations_with_pvalue_below_0_05_AND_phase_within_60d_of_june_2_AND_amplitude_in_window positive 4.0
SHA-256:
f9da0858486c313b8e778dfa…
Locked:
2026-05-20
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g10_solar_g_mode_disco_06a0397f
FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G10 Solar G-Mode Discovery moonshot. G10 v1 SEED is cross_physics/solar_gmode_discovery_monitor.py monitoring 5 candidate g-mode periods (3, 6, 9, 12, 24 hr); the v2 backtest restricts to the 3 Garcia 2007 + Provost 2000 + Belkacem 2009 theoretical candidate frequencies…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
e52c4e99a98d17b482f6e361…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g11_free_inner_core_wo_1c7c8b93
FORWARD test of the G11 Free Inner Core Wobble (FICW) discovery detector (Phase D.5 11th moonshot). G11 v1 SEED is cross_physics/free_inner_core_wobble_discovery_monitor.py monitoring five candidate FICW periods (3d/5d/7d/9d/14d); the backtest restricts to the three primary Mathews 1991 + Mathews 20…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
da50102f02aebe56185684f2…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G1 mass tomography correctly classifies 7-of-10 known mass-anomaly sites as ELITE/STRONG with at most 1-of-5 control false positives
20260520_phase_d_5_g1_mass_tomography_cor_51cc427f
Phase D.5-G1 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = at least 7 of 10 documented mass-anomaly sites (California Central Valley + Indo-Gangetic Plain + Greenland + WAIS + Decatur CCS + Yellowstone + Long Valley + Amazon + Sumatra-Andaman + Lake Mead) classify ELITE or STRONG…
Threshold:
n_known_strong_or_elite positive 7.0
SHA-256:
c52a8389f063be769423848c…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G2 DM compact transit: 5-domain coincidence classifier detects >=80% of simulated transits at SNR>=5 with FPR<=5%
20260520_phase_d_5_g2_dm_compact_transit__23320a39
FORWARD test of the Phase D.5-G2 v2 backtest harness (scripts/backtest_g2_dm_compact_transit.py). G2 is the second of three Phase D.5 moonshots (companion to G1 Mass Tomography + G3 DM Annual Modulation). Test: 50 simulated transit injections at coincidence_score >= 5.0 (18 PBH + 18 strangelet + 1…
Threshold:
n_detected positive 40.0
SHA-256:
ae823abdc5e908e4b34ba539…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G3 dark matter annual modulation Lomb-Scargle peak amplitude exceeds bootstrap null at p<=0.05 with DAMA-consistent period and phase
20260520_phase_d_5_g3_dark_matter_annual__cb491996
Phase D.5-G3 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = ALL three arms succeed: (a) Lomb-Scargle peak period within 300-440 days, (b) peak phase within +/- 60 days of June 2 (DAMA canonical day-of-year 152.5 per Drukier-Spergel 1986), AND (c) bootstrap p-value <= 0.05 from >= …
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
7a01edb3c43d343651e0abb4…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G4 LOD anomaly detector classifies >=4 of 6 known historical LOD anomaly events as ELEVATED/ANOMALY with <=2 FP across 50 quiet controls
20260520_phase_d_5_g4_lod_anomaly_detecto_5a4d8ecb
Phase D.5-G4 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = BOTH arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 6 known LOD anomaly events (1992 El Nino peak +1.8ms, 1997-98 El Nino extreme +0.8ms, 2003 Mar acceleration +1.0ms, 2010 Maule M8.8 -1.26ms post-event step, 2020 Mar unexplained +1.5ms, 2024 …
Threshold:
detection_rate_tp_over_6 positive 0.667
SHA-256:
49aafe3e40f1baab71f1886c…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G5 inner-core wandering detector reproduces Yang & Song 2023 2009 pause/reverse
20260520_phase_d_5_g5_inner_core_wanderin_465c519d
FORWARD test of the G5 inner-core wandering detector (Phase D.5 5th moonshot). G5 v1 SEED is cross_physics/inner_core_wandering_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g5_inner_core_wandering.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires at least one wander event in the…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
6e04281c4036fa6829015c4b…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G6 earth mass redistribution detector reproduces 4 known mass events
20260520_phase_d_5_g6_earth_mass_redistri_e839f743
FORWARD test of the G6 Earth mass redistribution detector (Phase D.5 6th moonshot). G6 v1 SEED is cross_physics/earth_mass_redistribution_monitor.py; v2 backtest harness is scripts/backtest_g6_earth_mass_redistribution.py. PASS criterion is conjunctive 3-arm: (a) anomaly_flag fires within plus or mi…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
92852a7381f41e82ab33501f…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G7 pre-volcanic mass-inflation detector classifies >=4 of 8 known historical VEI>=4 eruptions as ELEVATED/INFLATION in the 12-month pre-event window with <=2 FP across 50 quiet controls
20260520_phase_d_5_g7_pre_volcanic_mass_i_0a454003
Phase D.5-G7 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = BOTH arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 8 known VEI>=4 eruptions (Pinatubo 1991 VEI6, Eyjafjallajokull 2010 VEI4, Calbuco 2015 VEI4, Anak Krakatau 2018 VEI4, Sakurajima 2019 VEI4, Soufriere 2021 VEI4, Cumbre Vieja 2021 VEI4, Hunga …
Threshold:
detection_rate_tp_over_8 positive 0.5
SHA-256:
8c24484f2916d4373acfcc8d…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
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re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G8 Pre-EQ Free-Oscillation Excitation v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g8_pre_eq_free_oscilla_66d783af
FORWARD test of the G8 Pre-Earthquake Free-Oscillation Excitation detector (Phase D.5 8th moonshot). G8 v1 SEED is cross_physics/pre_eq_free_oscillation_excitation_monitor.py monitoring six modes (0S0/0S2/0T2/1S0/0S3/0S4); the backtest restricts to the three primary spheroidal modes 0S2/0T2/0S3 per …
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
708857a37a127a94726220cd…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-21
Phase D.5-G9 Cosmic-Ray Terrestrial Mass Modulation v2 backtest
20260520_phase_d_5_g9_cosmic_ray_terrestr_817f01fc
Phase D.5-G9 v2 12-month forward test. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-21. PASS = ALL three arms succeed: (a) >=4 of 5 reference mass-redistribution events (Tohoku 2011 M9, Maule 2010 M8.8, Sumatra-Andaman 2004 M9.1, Greenland 2019 extreme melt, WAIS Thwaites 2023 acceleration) classified positive (pea…
Threshold:
bootstrap_pvalue negative 0.05
SHA-256:
aa8e94271849ae74dd44f8a8…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-19
Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v3.1 -- first-ever measurement with proper Y_4^2 basis + 5y IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections
20260520_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v3_1_fir_7b08afb9
D.1-SPRINT v3.1 forward test for first-ever planetary l=4 admixture measurement. re-eval YYYY-MM-DD = 2027-05-19. Two outcomes: (1) Y_4^2 basis + 24-station IGETS + D.1-SPRINT corrections produces fit consistent with Wahr 1981 prediction at 2sigma -- first-ever planetary l=4 measurement paper (JG…
Threshold:
epsilon_4_within_2sigma_of_wahr_1981_range positive 0.0
SHA-256:
56534ab7844b4b5271173b77…
Locked:
2026-05-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-22
Cascadia SSE ae_index_1h precursor forward replication: +z >= 3 at lag -105h on new Cascadia ETS 2026-05-22 to 2028-05-22
20260522_cascadia_sse_ae_index_1h_precurs_79517a3b
FORWARD replication test of the May 22 2026 v3 hypothesis-generating finding (parent hypothesis 20260522_sse_piezo_electromagnetic_precur_682c9ac6 recorded as DISCONFIRMING at the global level).
PARENT v3 result on Cascadia regional split (45 documented SSEs 2005-2018 from Wech-Bartlow PNSN catalog…
Threshold:
z_score_post_F10p7_control_and_post_Kp5_storm_filter positive 3.0
SHA-256:
b9fdf7a7d7e696e3b3e72af7…
Locked:
2026-05-22
MARS-A10: Asteroid-mass PBH (10^17 to 10^23 g) transits through Earth produce a 5-domain coincidence signature (gravimeter step + magnetometer pulse + accelerometer transient + seismic blast + atmospheric IR pulse) at synchronized timestamps across >= 3 of 5 domain detectors at SNR >= 5 each. Detection or upper-bound rate < 10 per year (matches Apr 25 v1.2 bounds) over 540-day forward window.
20260526_mars_a10_asteroid_mass_pbh_10_17_0044dfc0
Asteroid-mass PBH transit search (E-1 from Apr 23 2026 brainstorm, partially active per memory/pbh_moonshot.md). 5-domain coincidence filter leveraging 18 of 27 VQ instruments -- nobody else can run this search. Apr 25 v1.2 produced upper bound <=8.4/yr; v1.3 audit Apr 28 showed null degenerate at v…
Threshold:
annual_rate_upper_bound_at_3of5_snr5 negative 10.0
SHA-256:
6bb71716ec99ae980204bd00…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A11: If a galactic supernova within <=50 kpc occurs in the forward window, neutrino burst (Super-K SN-alert via GCN Kafka) triggers concurrent search at IRIS FDSN seismic stations + IGETS gravimeter for any M3+ earthquake within +-48h x +-1000km. Detection if any M3+ EQ correlates at p<0.001 across both physics channels; null otherwise. Supernova has approximately 1-3pct probability per year per Adams 2013; null result publishable as no evidence for SN-neutrino-EQ correlation if no SN occurs OR if SN occurs but no triggered EQs.
20260526_mars_a11_if_a_galactic_supernova_7a312ff9
Forward-going 730-day window neutrino-supernova-EQ correlation test. Extension of Fischbach 1986 disconfirmation (Phase 65p Apr 19 2026 null at p=0.30 over 14 M7+ events on real IceCube Gold/Bronze archive) to the supernova-burst regime where neutrino flux is 10^58 vs IceCube standard astrophysical …
Threshold:
p_value_2channel_agreement negative 0.001
SHA-256:
95b455b01775e1f39ef10412…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-11-17
MARS-A1: Annual modulation residual in microseism band power 0.1-0.5 Hz at 15 quiet Antarctic/island stations after atmospheric+oceanic+solar-cycle model subtraction over 18-month accumulation window
20260526_mars_a1_annual_modulation_residu_b79122e6
Mars-shot codename MARS-A1 (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). Builds on Phase 65g Dark Matter v2 pipeline (scripts/dm_real_data_pipeline.py) which runs daily 04:00 UTC on AX41 with 105 GSN stations + 822 days cached PSD + 15 quiet Antarctic/island stations stacking. Honest prior: previous DM v1 ran p=0.613 on 0.5…
Threshold:
stacked_snr positive 3.0
SHA-256:
6a00e78c0e5171266830d0a3…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
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re-eval 2028-05-26
MARS-A3: Multi-year secular gravity drift at IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations within 500 km of known mantle plume / hot-spot locations exceeds tectonically quiet reference stations by ratio >= 3.0 on 2009-2026 cohort
20260526_mars_a3_multi_year_secular_gravi_382dfdca
Mars-shot codename MARS-A3 of the Six Science Mars-Shots phased program (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). Tests whether mantle plume / hot-spot proximity (10 known plume sites: Hawaii, Iceland, Galapagos, Yellowstone, Afar, Bouvet, Canary Islands, Reunion, Tahiti, East African Rift) imprints a detectable secular…
Threshold:
plume_to_reference_slope_ratio positive 3.0
SHA-256:
4064b13fe5ff83cbf602a0f6…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2029-05-27
MARS-A4: Solar helio-tomography via global IGETS SG array - 24-station coherent stacked PSD in 0.1-1000 nHz band over 36-month forward window 2026-05-27 to 2029-05-27 detects spectral peaks at solar gravitational modulation frequencies (11-yr cycle ~3 nHz, 27-day solar rotation ~430 nHz, solar g-mode candidates 100-300 nHz) with SNR >=3 across >=6 stations after Hinderer 1995 atmospheric loading + Path A FES2014b BLQ + ICET solid-Earth tide corrections
20260526_mars_a4_solar_helio_tomography_v_18290950
Mars-shot codename MARS-A4 (DMAI-SCI-001 v1.0). MOST AMBITIOUS of the 6 shots - planet-scale passive solar observatory via 24-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network. Sub-microhertz signal detection requires sqrt(t) SNR growth from coherent stacking; 36-month integration gives 6x SNR boost …
Threshold:
stacked_snr positive 3.0
SHA-256:
a5aad0498a0424ae54d3d11a…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A5: At M9+ historical earthquakes 1900-2026 (Aceh 2004, Maule 2010, Tohoku 2011, Sumatra 2012, Iquique 2014, Illapel 2015), tensor-conditioned waveform residual (predicted minus observed) at the nearest IRIS FDSN broadband station shows pre-rupture signature in the 0.1-1 Hz band with z-score >= +3 sigma vs background at lag -24h to -1h after fitting a tensor to waveform ridge regression. Phase 65u-MICROSEISM-LIVE Phase 5 v1 already established 0.5 sigma class residual prediction; A5 extends to M9+ stratum where signal-to-noise is maximal.
20260526_mars_a5_at_m9_historical_earthqu_ffd40f79
Extension of Phase 65u-MICROSEISM-LIVE / Phase 5 v1 (test R^2=0.052 on microseism summary band power). A5 extends to full BHZ waveform 0.1-1 Hz at M9+ rupture-class events. Honest prior: Phase 5 found microseism mostly orthogonal to other 111 retro tensor features; M9+ stratum is the cleanest test o…
Threshold:
z_score_prerupture_residual positive 3.0
SHA-256:
9b8ef0eeb16bd97de9990acb…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-22
MARS-A6: Cosmic-ray flux pre-event asymmetry at NMDB 7-station network within +/-48h of M6+ and M7+ EQ events on 14-year archive 2010-2024
20260526_mars_a6_cosmic_ray_flux_pre_even_adbcb2fb
Mars-shot codename MARS-A6. Extends Phase 5 microseism universal precursor methodology to cosmic-ray channel. Phase 5 found cosmic-ray-EQ null at p>=0.6 on M5+ events; A6 tests M6+/M7+ where signal cleanliness improves. NMDB 7-station network: OULU/APTY/JUNG/ROME/BKSN/ATHN/AATB. Test computes pre-ev…
Threshold:
pre_post_asymmetry_ratio negative 3.0
SHA-256:
40e76486aec6d2d4d47bd7fc…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2031-05-25
MARS-A7: Multi-physics tensor precursor signatures within 5-year pre-event window of historical VEI>=4 eruptions at 10 sleeping-giant volcanoes (Long Valley CA, Yellowstone WY, Tambora, Toba, Hualalai, Bardarbunga, Campi Flegrei, Aira, Iwo Jima, Soda Lakes NV) exhibit z>=+3sigma on >=2 of 4 channels (microseism, gravity, infrasound, atmospheric) vs background tensor state on GVP catalog 1900-2026
20260526_mars_a7_multi_physics_tensor_pre_2091f22a
Mars-shot codename MARS-A7. Phase 2 of MARS-SCI program, paired with MARS-A3. Extends Phase 5 microseism universal precursor methodology to decade-scale supervolcano context with 4-channel co-detection requirement. Sleeping-giants ranking from Phase 5c v1.1 (Long Valley/Yellowstone/Tambora/Toba/Hual…
Threshold:
n_channels_passing_z_threshold positive 2.0
SHA-256:
d0e5cb70e82d66ac6e6c314a…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A8: Inner-core rotation rate timeseries 2009-2026 derived from coherent-stack 0S2 multiplet asymmetry at 25 IGETS SG stations (Phase D.0 expansion) shows sub-decadal 0.5-3yr oscillation with Lomb-Scargle peak power exceeding 1000-perm null shuffle at z >= 3 in the bundle-36-replication held-out subset 2017-2026 (post fit on 2009-2016). Tests Yang and Song 2023 Nature finding that inner-core rotation reversed in 2009-2010. Reproduction with independent network -- we use EOST-only L2 IGETS; they used Alaska earthquake waveforms.
20260526_mars_a8_inner_core_rotation_rate_d5223b4b
Independent reproduction of Yang and Song 2023 Nature 622:734 inner-core rotation reversal. Train on 2009-2016 (matches Phase D.1-A6-CLOSE Track C v3 setup), validate held-out on 2017-2026. Uses EOST-only IGETS L2 with M2/S2/N2 calibration corrections per Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE Bug 2 fix (May 18 202…
Threshold:
z_score_peak_power positive 3.0
SHA-256:
83df905d6fea402c60abb039…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-A9: For any M9+ earthquake occurring 2026-05-26 through 2027-05-26, prompt gravity signature (Vallee 2017 + Juhel 2018) is detected at SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of (a) IGETS SG within 1000km of epicenter, (b) co-incident LVK gravitational-wave detector noise residual within +-100s of rupture origin, (c) Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor tensor channel. NULL if no M9+ events occur in window; CONFIRMED if M9+ event detected with multi-channel agreement; ARTIFACT if single-channel signal only.
20260526_mars_a9_for_any_m9_earthquake_oc_e2c835b6
Forward-going 365-day window prompt-gravity coincidence test at M9+ rupture class. Extends Phase 65p gw_newtonian_precursor (Vallee 2017 / Juhel 2018) to NEW LVK Run 5 era (begins late 2026). Honest prior: M9+ events have ~10pct/yr base rate so window may yield zero detection (publishable null). Exi…
Threshold:
min_channel_snr_with_2of3_agreement positive 3.0
SHA-256:
a6d457a441b9bc740c97e2f1…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-21
MARS-BSA-CYCLING: Real-time BSA cycling-safety recommendation engine combining Phase 5 universal precursor + Convergence Gate v4/v7 + ETAS Forecaster + USGS local EQ activity + BSA v1.2 cyclic_safety_score (static prior) produces a forward 180-day false-positive rate <= 5% (PAUSE_24H or HARD_STOP_REVIEW issued when NO induced-seismicity event occurs within 30d of recommendation) on a synthetic backtest at 10 Aliso-Canyon-class historical incidents, with detection rate >= 80% on the real incidents.
20260526_mars_bsa_cycling_real_time_bsa_c_5e9ffdd5
v0.1 synthetic baseline: detection 70% (3 missed -- Aliso Canyon, Mont Belvieu salt cavern, Hutchinson Yaggy; all primarily geomechanical caprock failures with weak seismic precursors), FPR 0% on BSA v1.2 top-10 controls. v0.2 swaps synthetic snapshot for AX41 retro-tensor replay. v0.3 adds CAPROCK_…
Threshold:
detection_rate_and_FPR positive 0.8
SHA-256:
4a401c9a906930e691c22279…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-05-25
MARS-BSA-DISTGRAV: A 100-well BSA pressure-cycling array, with each well instrumented with a CG-5 (or better) wellhead gravimeter and a documented coherence efficiency epsilon in [0.5, 0.9] depending on formation type, achieves a coherent-stack SNR boost >= 0.95 * sqrt(N * epsilon) -- meaning the empirical SNR curve from N=1 to N=100 obeys the theoretical sqrt(N) array-gain law within 5% over a 365-day operational window. Treats BSA wells THEMSELVES as a distributed gravimeter array, filling the IGETS coverage gap (25 stations globally, ~0 of BSA pilot sites within 500 km).
20260526_mars_bsa_distgrav_a_100_well_bsa_f7b6b038
v0.1 first-run synthetic 4-well coherence demo recovered true_slope=0.10 uGal/MPa as stacked_mean=0.104 +- 0.0094 (SE), giving snr_of_stacked_mean=11.1 and coherence_metric=0.787 (STRONG). SNR-vs-N curve generated from N=1 to N=100, matching sqrt(N) law within 5% on synthetic data. Module cross_phys…
Threshold:
empirical_snr_over_theoretical_snr_ratio positive 0.95
SHA-256:
5d44545f9f9045af26fef4a7…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH Newton G from 25-station IGETS lunar tidal response with free oscillation cross-validation
20260526_mars_earth_cavendish_newton_g_fr_daa12be5
MARS-EARTH-CAVENDISH: Using the 25-station IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter network's lunar tidal gravity response (M2 + S2 + N2 + K1 + O1 constituents) combined with free oscillation amplitudes (0S2 + 1S0 + 0T2 from Phase 65aa modules) over the 17-year archive 2009-2026, after Hinderer 1995 atmosph…
Threshold:
relative_uncertainty_ppm negative 50.0
SHA-256:
d6aa1b03492d4eeee7ca5b1d…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-METHANE-HYDRATE: Globally identify >=100 high-confidence methane hydrate provinces on continental margins via passive multi-physics scoring (hydroacoustic backscatter as BSR proxy + sea floor temperature gradient + bathymetry stability zone + gravity drift signature + EMAG2 magnetic anomaly), at depths 500-2000m on passive + active continental margins. >=10 provinces should support either (a) pilot-scale extraction economics or (b) climate-risk monitoring deployment. Top provinces should overlap with national programs (Japan METI Nankai, US DOE GoM, India ONGC Krishna-Godavari, China CGS South China Sea, Korea KIGAM Ulleung, Norway Equinor Barents).
20260526_mars_methane_hydrate_globally_id_16015a37
Mars-shot MARS-METHANE-HYDRATE. Largest unexploited fossil reserve (1,500-3,000 Gt methane carbon) + largest climate-risk methane source. Passive multi-physics scoring on continental margins 500-2000m depth. Hypothesis split: at least 100 candidate provinces globally + at least 10 supporting eith…
Threshold:
n_provinces_high_confidence positive 100.0
SHA-256:
39aa289f369d27a74dcecc15…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-REE: Globally identify rare earth element deposits via gamma + MRDS multi-physics scoring
20260526_mars_ree_globally_identify_rare__2a906627
MARS-REE: Globally identify >=500 candidate REE deposits via multi-physics scoring combining gamma spectroscopy (K/U/Th from NURE/cosmic-ray gamma) + USGS MRDS REE occurrence cross-correlation + geological province context + cyclic-pattern Th/K and Th/U ratio anomalies + per-deposit estimated REE co…
Threshold:
n_box_elder_class_composite_ge_9 positive 50.0
SHA-256:
7a3ebc4d1b5ba822f485e4bf…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-W1: Global 1°×1° aquifer recharge rate atlas constructed from GRACE-FO monthly mascons + IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter point-gravity drift + USGS NWIS groundwater levels (where available) over the 17-year archive 2009-2026 identifies >=500 high-confidence sustainable-yield candidate basins globally (combined SNR >= 3 across >= 2 of 3 sensor modalities), of which >=50 should support extractive operations at <= 0.15 USD/m^3 economics. Verifies the GRACE-FO where is the water actually being recharged signal against IGETS point-precise gravity drift + NWIS measured levels.
20260526_mars_w1_global_1_1_aquifer_recha_c0232de8
Mars-shot codename MARS-W1 of the Mars-shots water-pillar program (CLAUDE.md Phase MARS-SCI). First global 1deg x 1deg aquifer recharge map at planetary scale, constructed from 17-yr GRACE-FO mascon archive + IGETS SG point-precise drift + USGS NWIS groundwater levels. 3-modality cross-validation: G…
Threshold:
high_confidence_basin_count positive 500.0
SHA-256:
543290caa24e1b3b43765171…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-W2: Globally, pressurized subsurface formations identifiable via passive multi-physics scanning (5-axis P069 methodology + cyclic safety) exist at >=500 candidate sites distributed across South America (Andean basins), Africa (East African Rift + sub-Saharan), Asia (Tarim + Mekong + Indus), and Oceania (Murray-Darling + New Zealand); of these, >=80 should score Phase 65w-FS Box-Elder-class (composite >= 9.0)
20260526_mars_w2_globally_pressurized_sub_0a1a0910
MARS-W2 (Phase MARS-SCI Water Pillar). Extends 373-site US-Western Master Atlas to global cohort across 4 continents. Pass = >=500 candidate sites surveyed AND >=80 score composite >= 9.0 (Box-Elder-class). Forward window 2 years for commercial pilot conversion. Pre-registered before any data collec…
Threshold:
n_sites_composite_ge_9p0 positive 80.0
SHA-256:
be18fc0ac6e52f4b94bb3c1e…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2028-05-25
MARS-W3: The Submarine Spring Atlas v2 expanded from 122 to >=250 catalog sites identifies >=10 new high-confidence (multi-physics confirmation across >=3 of 5 axes) submarine groundwater discharge clusters with realizable freshwater extraction economics ($0.020/m3 or better, beating reverse osmosis desal by >=30x). Top-5 new clusters should each support pilot proposals to coastal water utilities at $200K-$500K pilot scale.
20260526_mars_w3_the_submarine_spring_atl_009fa178
MARS-W3 (Phase MARS-SCI Water Pillar shot 3). Extends Submarine Spring Atlas v1 (122 sites, Phase 65w-VERIFY-CLOSE / Phase 65x) globally to >=250 catalog sites adding Mediterranean basin expansion (Greece/Italy/Cyprus/Crete/Lebanon/Israel/Egypt/Turkey), South Pacific (Fiji/Tonga/Samoa/French Polynes…
Threshold:
n_new_high_confidence_clusters positive 10.0
SHA-256:
7f5676cd9fe5bcc807e691b6…
Locked:
2026-05-26
MARS-W6 vacuum-anywhere atlas v0.1 freshwater extraction via passive vacuum pumping Heron of Alexandria extension to 350m depth
20260526_mars_w6_vacuum_anywhere_atlas_v0_40e9e700
MARS-W6: Globally identify >=500 candidate sites where passive vacuum pumping (Heron of Alexandria extension to 350m depth via combined diurnal thermal cycling + atmospheric pressure differential + subsurface aquifer access) provides freshwater extraction at <=USD 0.10/m3, leveraging diurnal tempera…
Threshold:
n_pilot_ready_sites_and_dollars_per_m3 positive 500.0
SHA-256:
a7e31e4087aed71f01bb97ef…
Locked:
2026-05-26
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-11-17
MARS-WILD-3: 50-station global cohort Dark Matter seasonal modulation residual at sqrt(50) ~ 7x SNR boost over MARS-A1, detection or exclusion of sub-eV bosonic DM AND MeV-scale axion-like particle coupling at SNR > 3 over 18-month forward window
20260526_mars_wild_3_50_station_global_co_61287beb
Mars-shot codename MARS-WILD-3 (DMAI-SCI-WILD-003 v1.0). Direct sister-shot extension of MARS-A1 (hypothesis 20260526_mars_a1_annual_modulation_residu_b79122e6, currently in 18-month accumulation at 15 quiet stations) to ~50 stations globally for sqrt(50)/sqrt(15) ~ 1.83x additional SNR ceiling boos…
Threshold:
stacked_snr_50station positive 3.0
SHA-256:
279e82128e0067c5ea9e41b5…
Locked:
2026-05-26
Multi-modal elemental-resonance fingerprint predicts non-radioelement commodity at assay sites
20260616_multi_modal_elemental_resonance__8fdea1d5
PRE-REGISTERED BEFORE DATA EXISTS (Jun 16 2026). H: a multi-modal elemental/molecular resonance fingerprint (gamma de-excitation lines via NURE K/eU/eTh local anomaly; SWIR molecular-overtone band depths via EMIT Al-OH 2200 / carbonate 2340 / ferric 900; SIP Cole-Cole relaxation) predicts the domina…
Threshold:
delta_macro_auc_multimodal_minus_best_single_channel positive 0.03
SHA-256:
91dc857206adc8a5520a83d8…
Locked:
2026-06-16
Faulted trap + deep confined fluid column at Kingston Pahvant CISCO (at least 2 of 3)
20260618_faulted_trap_deep_confined_fluid_d3eff985
DeepMap pre-registration (USU/UGS well logs). PREDICT: each site hosts a confined fluid column at depth within its faulted graben/basin - WATER at Pahvant/Kingston, HYDROCARBON-bearing at CISCO (Greater Cisco field). EVIDENCE: structural-trap axis 79-88, deep-water signal 69-70; real remote MT corro…
Threshold:
n_sites_with_confined_fluid_column_at_depth positive 2.0
SHA-256:
14bb499c869da406f914ac79…
Locked:
2026-06-18
Pahvant deep-water replenishment is deep (1-3 km) not surface: producible water tritium is dead
20260618_pahvant_deep_water_replenishment_c6033cb7
DECISIVE CLAIM. DeepMap pre-registration (USU isotope lab). PREDICT: water chemistry/isotopes show OLD/DEEP signature: tritium dead (<0.8 TU) AND/OR C14 old AND/OR 3He/4He elevated above atmospheric. EVIDENCE: dv/v deep band (0.1-0.5 Hz ~1-3 km) carries -0.199 %/yr trend + 1.16% seasonal swing peaki…
Threshold:
tritium_TU_of_producible_deep_water negative 0.8
SHA-256:
f034833362aa4666f996717b…
Locked:
2026-06-18
Pahvant-Hansel corridor hosts deep confined artesian water (excess head at 300-1500 m)
20260618_pahvant_hansel_corridor_hosts_de_5a812e3a
DeepMap pre-registration (USU/Stephanie Froham + UGS). PREDICT: a borehole/UGS+DOGM deep-well record in the Hansel-Pahvant corridor encounters a confined aquifer with measurable excess hydraulic head (artesian/sub-artesian) at ~300-1500 m. EVIDENCE: helium DRI grid over faulted graben; flowing-artes…
Threshold:
confined_aquifer_with_excess_head_present positive 1.0
SHA-256:
f5875e43ed514eb719c64da8…
Locked:
2026-06-18
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-09-20
Mesh RF link RSSI as a temperature-controlled passive humidity sensor
20260620_mesh_rf_link_rssi_as_a_temperatu_ddf175e3
Pre-registered 2026-06-20 before forward data exists. CLAIM: in humid-climate regions the temperature-controlled partial correlation between the coherent regional RSSI-anomaly stack (z-score each fixed pair daily RSSI, average across pairs per day) and daily relative humidity is NEGATIVE (humidity u…
Threshold:
median_humid_region_partial_r_rssi_humidity_given_temp negative -0.2
SHA-256:
36344b6276cb3e280e290c07…
Locked:
2026-06-20
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-06-22
Ambient-noise inner-core differential motion via the BC-DF differential of through-globe Green's functions
20260623_ambient_noise_inner_core_differe_868fb110
PRE-REGISTRATION -- independent ambient-noise test of inner-core differential motion.
BACKGROUND. The inner-core differential-rotation debate (Yang & Song 2023; Vidale; Tkalcic) rests almost entirely on repeating-earthquake DOUBLET PKIKP(df)-PKPbc differential traveltimes, criticised for sparse, un…
Threshold:
ensemble_bcdf_drift_sigma two_sided 3.0
SHA-256:
13d937cee0eb491c3f9b8bb1…
Locked:
2026-06-23
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-07-01
Dogma A: operational EQ forecasts carry skill over ETAS + regional base-rate baselines (12-month held-out forward test)
20260701_dogma_a_operational_eq_forecasts_13b7ef38
DOGMA A -- the consensus that operational earthquake forecasting adds no skill over a random/ETAS/base-rate model. Pre-registered FORWARD HELD-OUT test: DeepMap's operational EQ forecast stream (convergence_gate + tensor_eq_per_region + tensor_eq_global probabilities in the hash-chained ledger) beat…
Threshold:
brier_skill_score_vs_regional_poisson_baserate positive 0.02
SHA-256:
21b435019cd0c855baaa0a5a…
Locked:
2026-07-01
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-07-01
Dogma C: a multi-day precursor to a great earthquake exists -- stacked-epoch M7+ forward test with honest solar controls
20260701_dogma_c_a_multi_day_precursor_to_1f92590a
DOGMA C -- the strong-form unpredictability dogma: that NO passive channel carries pre-rupture information at MULTI-DAY lead before a great earthquake. Pre-registered stacked-epoch FORWARD test: across ALL M>=7.0 events in 2026-07-01..2027-07-01, a LOCKED multi-channel tensor feature (stacked-epoch …
Threshold:
pre_event_stacked_z_solar_controlled positive 3.0
SHA-256:
a2fa3ef7b956403077f1de1b…
Locked:
2026-07-01
MARS-8 Earth-as-DM-detector: Cygnus-moveout macroscopic-dark-matter transit search (SG + GSN network)
20260701_mars_8_earth_as_dm_detector_cygn_05bbd9ec
MARS-SHOT #8 -- DRAFT PRE-REGISTRATION (NOT YET LOCKED; REQUIRES MIKE SIGN-OFF).
HYPOTHESIS: If macroscopic/composite dark-matter objects (nuclearites, strangelets, primordial-black-hole-scale clumps, Q-balls) transit through or near Earth at galactic velocity, the global network of superconducting…
Threshold:
network_coherent_snr_at_cygnus positive 5.0
SHA-256:
171f68f8027cbb33579cb194…
Locked:
2026-07-01
Abiogenic-HC multi-tracer convergence at five high-R/Ra serpentinization-context sites
20260703_abiogenic_hc_multi_tracer_conver_97b00a36
PRE-REGISTERED CANDIDATE SET (ranked by literature 3He/4He R/Ra, the mantle-source tracer), locked BEFORE any new gas sampling so that any future sampling (by us or in the literature) is a blind forward test of the screen: (1) Chimaera Eternal Flames, Turkey R/Ra 5.1 -- STANDOUT: onshore, actively v…
Threshold:
n_sites_with_>=2_abiogenic_markers positive 3.0
SHA-256:
e2ad8f42edcedc073a0e5bb7…
Locked:
2026-07-03
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-10-12
Passive dv/v detects effective-stress (pore-pressure) change at Utah FORGE injection episodes (springboard US6977866B2)
20260712_passive_dv_v_detects_effective_s_7e043492
SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE: first invention through the test-before-file loop. Expired US6977866B2 (ConocoPhillips, Huffman et al) velocity-to-effective-stress transform, surfaced+deep-read by the Invention Springboard Miner 2026-07-12; proposed combination = drive the Bowers/Eaton velocity-effective-stres…
Threshold:
injection_window_stacked_z negative -2.0
SHA-256:
27585e75c158abe395d93a65…
Locked:
2026-07-12
Springboard test: US7127353B2 - Method and apparatus for imaging permeability pathways of geologic fluid reservoirs using seismic emission tomography
20260712_springboard_test_us7127353b2_met_90aefeea
SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE (invention loop). Brief-derived hypothesis approved by Mike. CLAIM: In a reservoir/fracture volume under measurable cyclic loading, the SET coherence (semblance) energy of critically-stressed fracture fairways — those oriented within ±45° of the maximum horizontal compressive str…
Threshold:
None
SHA-256:
5c395ecd4fd00d46046601f4…
Locked:
2026-07-12
Springboard test: US7391675B2 - Microseismic event detection and location by continuous map migration
20260712_springboard_test_us7391675b2_mic_f603e70e
SPRINGBOARD LINEAGE (invention loop). Brief-derived hypothesis approved by Mike. CLAIM: Adaptive-Tc continuous coalescence migration over an existing sparse regional FDSN array will automatically detect and locate microseismic events at least 0.3 magnitude units below the network's published catalog…
Threshold:
None
SHA-256:
924679cb14f827722d66a386…
Locked:
2026-07-12
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-10-11
v2 imminent_convergence_72h SHADOW forward test: >=70% hit rate
20260712_v2_imminent_convergence_72h_shad_a3f748c7
v2 of the imminent-convergence 72h forward test (v1 4ec47bcd withdrawn pre-launch, zero data: Mike directed SHADOW-mode testing before public exposure). Trigger rule unchanged: >=4 DISTINCT models holding active in-window HIGH/CRITICAL EQ forecasts on the same region simultaneously -> ONE 72h shadow…
Threshold:
resolved_hit_rate_pct positive 70.0
SHA-256:
a062f8691ca5028cc3920790…
Locked:
2026-07-12
Passive deep-Earth body-wave retrieval with double-array slowness artifact rejection
20260714_passive_deep_earth_body_wave_ret_92167244
PRE-REGISTRATION (Springboard #384, HAL-tel-01927711v1, ISTerre Campillo/Boue/Roux lineage). CONFIRMATORY, not blind: the continuous noise exists in FDSN archives DeepMap already ingests, but this double-array slowness analysis has never been run before this lock. HYPOTHESIS: using two teleseismical…
Threshold:
real_vs_spurious_classification_accuracy positive 0.8
SHA-256:
f5ec2eec70af05c1975227f9…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley barometric disentangle: east faults vs east non-faults (fault-venting vs regional confound)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_disentang_bed7b5e8
PRE-REGISTRATION -- GENUINELY BLIND: the two east-fault boxes' (Moab 38.57/-109.55, Lisbon Valley 38.15/-109.30) barometric response has NEVER been measured; their GOES cloud series is built AFTER this lock. Follows the #2 barometric PASS whose west/east confound (escalante flat WEST control tied th…
Threshold:
disentangle_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
5b635ef8df5ce645a18f1ad8…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = excess (fault beta - mean control beta) < 0 AND block-bootstrap p<=0.05. Low pressure eases fault confinement -> extra venting;…
Threshold:
barometric_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
f8a9f795fa2901dd112a3db0…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault spring-neap p<=0.05 AND fault spring-neap snr > max control snr. Resolves the M2 null: a threshold-triggered fault releas…
Threshold:
fault_spring_neap_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
a6c515918bcbf5d4e5b5cda8…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault peak-lagcorr > every control AND phase-randomised p<=0.05. Interannual loading anomaly -> lagged venting anomaly, fault-a…
Threshold:
seasonal_lagged_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
67db91f0611d86610039730c…
Locked:
2026-07-14
Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad
PRE-REGISTRATION. CONFIRMATORY (data exists in the cloud/forcing/USGS caches; this analysis has run ZERO times on real data before this lock -- only --selftest ran). PASS = fault post-event (0-3d) minus pre-event (-7..-1d) excess p<=0.05 AND fault excess > max control excess. Earthquakes transiently…
Threshold:
seismic_postevent_excess_p negative 0.05
SHA-256:
e5fa0a35b8d0d9a0f14cf6ec…
Locked:
2026-07-14
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-10-16
Fault energy-state stand-down: de-energized regions have a lower subsequent EQ rate than held regions
20260716_fault_energy_state_stand_down_de_25e55634
Tracker flags a watched region STOOD_DOWN when its arming dv/v anomaly recovers toward baseline (recover threshold -0.15pct) WITHOUT a qualifying M>=4.5 in-region quake during the armed window. Hypothesis: de-energization is real -> STOOD_DOWN regions have a LOWER M4.5+ rate in the 30d after stand-d…
Threshold:
stood_down_minus_held_M4.5_rate_30d negative 0.0
SHA-256:
02eec6a0b41eed3841903f1e…
Locked:
2026-07-16
v2 RS+ETAS caldera forecaster on LIVE deformation beats the coverage null
20260718_v2_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_on_4fdfbd38
Supersedes 20260506_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_high__eb9944b0, withdrawn as an INVALID test: the NGL IGS14 URL was dead for that entire window so every alert rode a frozen 50 mm/yr literature prior (rs_amp 8.2652 constant > CRITICAL threshold 5.0 by arithmetic). Fixed 2026-07-18 (NGL IGS20 repoint) …
Threshold:
match_rate_minus_coverage_null_pp positive 10.0
SHA-256:
5f50b723a0b34168f8cf1a08…
Locked:
2026-07-18
v2 Dynamic magnitude evaluator (Poisson-Gutenberg-Richter band) beats the tier-lookup band on out-of-sample calibration of the largest observed event
20260723_v2_dynamic_magnitude_evaluator_p_d9bd832d
DYNAMIC MAGNITUDE EVALUATOR v2 -- shadow test. Supersedes
20260723_dynamic_magnitude_evaluator_pois_ed6a2456, withdrawn as an INVALID test
(object mismatch + unit-of-analysis error), not a failed one, before it ran.
WHAT CHANGED FROM v1, AND ONLY THIS
v1 scored "fraction of matched OBSERVATIONS ins…
Threshold:
abs_coverage_error_improvement positive 0.0
SHA-256:
87515824b7c5362cc7b4e022…
Locked:
2026-07-23
Yellowstone 4A answer-keyed Vs recovery + dense-array decimation curve (method validation on public dense array)
20260724_yellowstone_4a_answer_keyed_vs_r_20348cda
YELLOWSTONE 4A ANSWER-KEYED RECOVERY + dense-array DECIMATION CURVE. Pre-registered before our passive stack is run on the 4A data, so the recovery cannot be tuned to match the published answer.
PURPOSE. PH5 network 4A ("Imaging Yellowstone's shallow Magma Reservoir", 648 three-component nodes, 250…
Threshold:
vs_reduction_pct_in_3_8km negative 15.0
SHA-256:
1335df77d72ed17fe031ce62…
Locked:
2026-07-24
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2027-02-04
Telluric geoelectric anomaly as an M5.0+ earthquake precursor: skill over regional base rate (forward held-out, SHADOW)
20260804_telluric_geoelectric_anomaly_as__c7b40244
Measurable version of the electricity-shapes-geology thread (Isaac): does a telluric/geoelectric anomaly precede M5.0+ EQs beyond the regional base rate? Legitimate seismo-EM / VAN SES territory, NOT Electric-Universe cosmology. SHADOW forward test on the existing telluric_current_monitor + predicti…
Threshold:
notice_precision_lift_over_baserate_shuffle_gated positive 1.3
SHA-256:
4dcbed3893558c2a09e9ba32…
Locked:
2026-08-04
Crustal nonlinear elasticity via tide x microseism intermodulation: M2/O1 envelope sidebands in the 16-yr GSN stack (CoSMoS)
20260807_crustal_nonlinear_elasticity_via_867f46d6
SEALED PRE-REGISTRATION OF RECORD: strategy/crustal_nonlinearity_intermod_prereg_v1_SEALED.md, SHA-256 3b7900adab036b9c4394b831905a2751e4d21042d4c7a631081b3ffe5101eed8 (drafted + hashed 2026-08-06 in the CoSMoS build wave; Mike gave the word to anchor 2026-08-06; sealed verbatim -- the sealed docume…
Threshold:
M2_line_p_LEE positive 0.001
SHA-256:
3a0e64739a2139829f6c67eb…
Locked:
2026-08-07
EPC re-evaluation v1: the fixed earthquake_precursor_chain beats per-region GR climatology AND its own date-shuffle null in shadow mode
20260807_epc_re_evaluation_v1_the_fixed_e_e3b22cd2
Prereg doc hypotheses/epc_reevaluation_prereg_v1.md. Denylisted 2026-05-15 on evidence the BSD/HVSR audit Sec 9.4 showed was corrupted (99/117 rows carried an un-provenanced telluric stage; 8 exist only because of it). No retroactive re-crediting; EPC stays denylisted throughout. HONEST CAVEAT: Stag…
Threshold:
full_magnitude_hit_rate_pct positive 15.0
SHA-256:
6c8f6b0f1df211a7c6a6c5e4…
Locked:
2026-08-07
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-06
Tidal poroelastic pumping for passive fluid-type discrimination (prereg v2.1): within-stratum covariate-adjusted fluid separation vs within-stratum shuffle null
20260807_tidal_poroelastic_pumping_for_pa_d1fbba3f
SEALED PRE-REGISTRATION OF RECORD: strategy/fluid_discrimination_prereg_v2_1_SEALED.md, SHA-256 fcf6645a51958d6e13c00f422ca72f9b9b756912398464fd28841589ce29e828 (anchored bytes). Working copy: _active_today/Fluid_Discrimination_Prereg_v2.1.md (identical bytes). HONESTY RECORD / HASH SUPERSESSION: th…
Threshold:
within_stratum_covariate_adjusted_fluid_AUC positive 0.75
SHA-256:
0c33596fcefa8f138e87f4cb…
Locked:
2026-08-07
Ultralight scalar-DM oscillating-coupling search in the SG network: coherent global stack + velocity-modulation fingerprint (CoSMoS)
20260807_ultralight_scalar_dm_oscillating_4d41c614
SEALED PRE-REGISTRATION OF RECORD: strategy/dm_oscillating_g_prereg_v1_SEALED.md, SHA-256 6affe3071d05e9bad7e0fe06fd3f2c24ef0d551d17a9a61b7eae0470c313ab86 (drafted + hashed 2026-08-06; hash re-verified this session against the recorded 6affe307 prefix per Mike's standing verify-then-proceed intent; …
Threshold:
global_line_p_LEE positive 0.001
SHA-256:
9f8a348dedb7cc62d1de3c39…
Locked:
2026-08-07
ETAS underperformance v1: do our aftershock modules score below their own reference ETAS?
20260808_etas_underperformance_v1_do_our__0448fa93
Forward-only. CALIBRATION GATE RUNS FIRST: if the reference count ratio is outside [0.5,2.0] for BOTH bracket bounds the verdict is REFERENCE_MISCALIBRATED and NO claim about the module is made -- the test can void itself by design. Otherwise: below the bracket LOWER bound at p<=0.01 = MODULE_UNDERP…
Threshold:
observed_minus_bracket_lower_pct negative 0.0
SHA-256:
1e931362e22e1bc4084e669e…
Locked:
2026-08-08
Risk-score DELTA carries earthquake timing information (v1)
20260808_risk_score_delta_carries_earthqu_95c82071
Forward-only: events AFTER the lock timestamp. The 180d exploratory window that motivated this is excluded and cannot contribute. PASS requires ALL FOUR: n>=300 isolated events, diff>=+0.50 points, p<=0.01 vs C1 AND C3, not worse than C2 (ETAS). 3 of 4 is a FAIL. Threshold 0.01 not 0.05 because the …
Threshold:
delta_diff_score_points positive 0.5
SHA-256:
d1e2c001aa9254102f8f1d75…
Locked:
2026-08-08
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-10
v2 forward: array-stacking tensor block (44 features) raises per-region EQ held-out AUC, manifest-backed
20260811_v2_forward_array_stacking_tensor_f65b6d4d
FORWARD TEST v2, re-issued 2026-08-11 after the v1 lock (2026-06-01) proved UNTESTABLE -- not disconfirmed. v1 could not be graded because the tensor archive carries no layout manifest before 2026-08-08, so the feature vectors at the prediction epochs were unreadable, and because no prediction insid…
Threshold:
delta_auc positive 0.005
SHA-256:
6ca42a5e4a8d6dd54332992b…
Locked:
2026-08-11
LOCKED
⛓ BTC
re-eval 2026-11-10
v2 forward: satellite tensor block (39 features) raises per-region EQ held-out AUC, manifest-backed
20260811_v2_forward_satellite_tensor_bloc_f5941117
FORWARD TEST v2, re-issued 2026-08-11 after the v1 lock (2026-06-01) proved UNTESTABLE -- not disconfirmed. v1 could not be graded because the tensor archive carries no layout manifest before 2026-08-08, so the feature vectors at the prediction epochs were unreadable, and because no prediction insid…
Threshold:
delta_auc positive 0.005
SHA-256:
7786166cab1eaeabcb3a148e…
Locked:
2026-08-11
Swarm-continuation band beats an equal-width G-R baseline
20260812_swarm_continuation_band_beats_an_faaeea4e
Forward-only from 2026-08-12. Pinnacles CA M3.9 (2026-08-11) motivated this and is EXCLUDED. Equal-width baseline: a wider band trivially wins, so the baseline gets our width and optimal placement. Secondary claim graded separately: upper bound biased LOW (exceedance above hi > shortfall below lo) -…
Threshold:
paired in-band rate difference (ours minus baseline) positive 0.1
SHA-256:
d71fe78fee2fb210e12829f5…
Locked:
2026-08-12
VQ45 v2 virtual anisotropy field SKS multi-event stacked splitting reproducibility
20260814_vq45_v2_virtual_anisotropy_field_78cf499d
VQ#45 v2 Virtual Anisotropy Field, SKS Silver-Chan splitting. FORWARD RE-ISSUE after v1 (ffb62804) was graded DISCONFIRMING: 43% of 23 stations within 25 deg (bar 0.50), median delay error 0.83 s (bar 0.70). This is a NEW entry, never a re-grade of ffb62804 -- the method changed, so the old seal mus…
Threshold:
frac_dphi_within_25 positive 0.5
SHA-256:
b0c46e751b23169faea3a74d…
Locked:
2026-08-14
VQ46 BAR-S1b virtual sonic log HVSR interface recovery vs KiK-net PS logging
20260814_vq46_bar_s1b_virtual_sonic_log_h_97c36f9b
VQ#46 Virtual Sonic Log, BAR-S1b. FORWARD RE-ISSUE after FORGE BAR-S1 FAILED TWICE. The failed bars stand as recorded; this is a new entry on a new corpus, never a re-grade. WHY FORGE WAS ILL-POSED: the DSI log in well 58-32 is BLIND ABOVE 657 m, so its 'strongest contrast at 1050 m' was strongest o…
Threshold:
frac_f0_within_30pct positive 0.5
SHA-256:
7fa67ebc2bdf831ef5715b28…
Locked:
2026-08-14
c5 wind-projection geometry discriminates wind-fixed signals from shared environmental lines
20260815_c5_wind_projection_geometry_disc_e98eed7d
c5 statistic Delta=R_geo-R_raw, operating z_min=1.03 (0.7 x geometric ceiling z_max=1.48), delta_null mu=+0.001 sd=1.353 over 60000 draws, dec=48.0. SHADOW criterion: does not alter any c1-c4 verdict. Degenerate alternative (c1-clearing bins show Delta<0) REJECTED and recorded: pure noise selected a…
Threshold:
balanced_accuracy positive 0.9
SHA-256:
4cc191deda0470508a9162b7…
Locked:
2026-08-15
v2: MARS-A2 0S0 fundamental whole-Earth radial mode at ~813.92 uHz detected at p<0.001 (50k block bootstrap) at >=5 of 24 IGETS SG stations via 2009-2026 multi-window coherent stack
20260822_v2_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_e3fdca22
Replaces withdrawn v1 20260526_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_ea_1b0bbb26 (withdrawn 2026-08-22: untestable as registered -- the stack+bootstrap instrument was never built; lock-time-readability lesson applied here as an explicit instrument-readiness gate in test.extra). Same scientific question: doe…
Threshold:
n_stations_passing_p_lt_0p001 positive 5.0
SHA-256:
222e1dbc92c60a1e4a026828…
Locked:
2026-08-22
v3: paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost (Poisson gate on measured baselines) -- paired predictions match rate >=2x unpaired baseline
20260822_v3_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_86677bbd
Replaces withdrawn v2 20260521_v2_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_70095bae. V2 DIAGNOSIS CORRECTED BY MEASUREMENT (91-day autopsy, daily rolling 7d M3+ counts vs the monitor own ComCat feed): the hardcoded historical_rate_per_month constants were 7-9x too high (cascadia median 1.0/7d vs assumed 7.0; u…
Threshold:
match_rate_ratio positive 2.0
SHA-256:
97f62f42c5e18f74f928b330…
Locked:
2026-08-22
Slichter 1S1 search v5 (DAMPED-ONLY): matched Lorentzian filter + Q-dependent whitening + onset scan -- the first Q-aware bound
20260823_slichter_1s1_search_v5_damped_on_841f9f76
v4's damped tier was UNRESOLVED in all 15 cells because block-median whitening eats a damped mode's line width (HWHM 0.372 whitening blocks at Q=500) and a persistent single-bin filter mismatches a Lorentzian at a penalty scaling ~Q instead of ~sqrt(Q). BOTH fixes were validated on synthetic injecti…
Threshold:
trials_corrected_p_fa positive 0.001
SHA-256:
2b8a01914efc18e0f6a8162a…
Locked:
2026-08-23
GNSS Green's-function matched filter detects distributed pre-event slip on subduction updip-dense margins (forward)
20260824_gnss_green_s_function_matched_fi_4da88a9d
ADOPTED method (trackAS). Frozen g = unit thrust slip on Slab2 locked/updip zone via Okada 1985 (validated 2.7e-4 vs screw-dislocation analytic), computed BEFORE pre-event data. MF = sum(g.d/sigma^2)/sqrt(sum|g|^2/sigma^2) ~ N(0,1) under noise. Gates: must recover Cascadia SSE + return chance on Rid…
Threshold:
MF_projection_percentile positive 95.0
SHA-256:
2045ef7ac0665c9ed52605ed…
Locked:
2026-08-24
GNSS distributed trenchward-rate precursor (trackAQ forward test)
20260826_gnss_distributed_trenchward_rate_378219d7
The one precursor channel with a passing positive control (trackAQ): coherent trenchward network GNSS transient over a subduction updip zone before a great EQ. Records only (no ledger, no alarm). Full frozen spec + provenance in the draft. Positive controls (Iquique 2014, Cascadia ETS) pass; Ridgecr…
Threshold:
coherence_pctile positive 97.5
SHA-256:
900ed786d602b65ae78ffcaa…
Locked:
2026-08-26
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v0
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_1084ce55
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line COHERENCE search (v0). Frozen code scripts/dm_earthmars_coherence.py sha256 4ab0f4e4c68ef042acdbf0f74bf7c49ddaeeb5698dfad450ad95e5b737800723 (git b6d2321c31d5dc08dd151048880ace051f35a2bd); prereg _active_today/dm_earthmars_coherence_prereg_v0_D…
Threshold:
sidak_z 5.593
SHA-256:
f3ad33a143c843bea334b6fc…
Locked:
2026-09-02
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_1084ce55
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1.1 (scale amendment; supersedes v1 75974252 and v0 1084ce55)
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_813fc905
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line COHERENCE search v1.1 (scale amendment; supersedes v1 75974252 withdrawn before any run and v0 1084ce55 halted at its gate). Frozen code scripts/dm_earthmars_coherence.py sha256 ee81b4b9d39a9b6bc3a0ddbfd4c9cbb70aba32db2925a17bf9011e2206ac522f (…
Threshold:
sidak_z 5.593
SHA-256:
e2c8fc579b8218d5ebc0cd69…
Locked:
2026-09-02
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_813fc905
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1.2 (differential positive control; supersedes v1.1 813fc905, v1 75974252, v0 1084ce55)
20260903_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_01fea7ac
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line COHERENCE search v1.2 (differential positive control; supersedes v1.1 813fc905 which was sealed, Bitcoin-anchored at block 965229, RAN and HALTED at its own injection positive control with ZERO real bins scored -- UNTESTABLE-AS-FROZEN, NOT a nu…
Threshold:
sidak_z 5.593
SHA-256:
56d2f866b70c4fcb938708f1…
Locked:
2026-09-03
20260903_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_01fea7ac
20260904_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_2a4273ed
Hypotheses where the forward window has closed and the literal observed
result has been recorded. Both confirmatory and null outcomes are
preserved here — we publish nulls.
Lowering expected_mag_min to 2.5 for iceland/azores/newberry/ukraine raises hit rate in those 4 regions from 0% to >30% over 90d without degrading global rate
20260504_lowering_expected_mag_min_to_2_5_5039cbab
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '76c275a3812c6853dc7c47d0144972596398ac8c', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.77, 'n_observed': 187, 'notes': 'CONFIRMING on the primary...
Microseism universal precursor continues to fire at z>=5 for M5+ EQ at -10h, May-Nov 2026
20260504_microseism_universal_precursor_c_99f4c2c7
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '673dff0ac5e4841da96c6dd84964911ac8411165', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.08, 'n_observed': 82, 'notes': "DISCONFIRMED by...
Non-dry historical Sevier Desert wells have higher OGC composite_score than dry wells (Predictive Geology H3 directional)
20260511_non_dry_historical_sevier_desert_865aa86c
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '8ebb5217e6d0eba124fb857b6c8f4f98851d7ccb', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.4088, 'n_observed': 80, 'notes': "GRADED 2026-09-14....
Top-decile OGC cells in Sevier Desert corridor cluster within 10 km of mapped basin-margin frontal-fault structures (Predictive Geology H2)
20260511_top_decile_ogc_cells_in_sevier_d_9c8de680
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '4627deb1a6df77ee8f011c55beba4431efb66e30', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.08, 'n_observed': 25, 'notes': "GRADED 2026-09-14 on a...
Phase 5 microseism universal precursor reproduces at z=+34.52 at lag -10h with 11.7x pre>>post asymmetry; Time-D entropy classifier independently confirms microseism is most-irreversible feature in 112-dim retro tensor
20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_dad7e9e7
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '673dff0ac5e4841da96c6dd84964911ac8411165', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.08, 'n_observed': 82, 'notes': "DISCONFIRMED by...
Coastal sites cited in pre-1900 historical records as 'good water' landings score higher on the 5-axis SGD composite than geographically-matched random control sites
20260518_coastal_sites_cited_in_pre_1900__873c2e65
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ffec46b5aaad6d2be24d7d74c7a7dc0a47de7c16', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 2e-05, 'n_observed': 106, 'notes': 'Pooled Welch t...
Slichter mode v4 — methods-clean null with 24-station coherent stack + matched-filter detection
20260520_slichter_mode_v4_methods_clean_n_5af2ca52
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '5eec07b1f1a274ae26d3a1966228e032f87d907d', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.18033, 'n_observed': 15, 'notes': 'Cross-seed 50k...
Wahr 1981 l=4 admixture v4 forward test: OSO Path A BLQ + Hinderer v2 literature beta tightens CI while excluding +0.7%
20260521_wahr_1981_l_4_admixture_v4_forwa_a6ae7dc5
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '612219f4a05c9ffb62de574bc803058942a30815', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.103, 'n_observed': 23, 'notes': "AMBIGUOUS disposition...
PHC v0.3 with 250km play-scale regional anomaly normalization reproduces threshold=0.15 clean discrimination (recall >= 60% AND FP <= 20%) on Hingeline backtest
20260522_phc_v0_3_with_250km_play_scale_r_6a8cd857
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'bf4209b4a5d96ecd6c4a012963e9c780ddbbf1f7', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.667, 'n_observed': 8, 'notes': 'PASS, graded 2026-08-22...
SSE piezo-electromagnetic precursor: AE/AL/AU/Dst/IMF-Bz signature in -336h pre-SSE window, N=79 catalog
20260522_sse_piezo_electromagnetic_precur_682c9ac6
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'a19d249f8acbbe45ac3a4ed55504cd063890d8f5', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -4.2, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'MARGINAL/NULL at the...
Slichter 5.40h triplet replicates across independent data splits
20260607_slichter_5_40h_triplet_replicate_38bc5632
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '768b9231edb4525fe96d17ec70086d4097b93cdd', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PARTIAL: 1 of 2 splits...
Tidal fault-criticality predicts failure (held-out 2005-14 to 2015-18)
20260607_tidal_fault_criticality_predicts_5e1c6d12
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b72820063f794e027fc496058efeb6a6e7b1bb37', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.0074, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'HELD-OUT NULL....
De-confounding preserves microseism precursor + kills solar artifact
20260609_de_confounding_preserves_microse_72295a03
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'dfe84c9f26cba05d167e8aad8f805beb6b736554', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.035, 'n_observed': 122712, 'notes': "FAIL on composite...
De-confounding reduces Phase-4 ternary-mining spurious triples
20260609_de_confounding_reduces_phase_4_t_320f3a7a
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b74e2191e788ebeb365fedd96eb7431c81e659a4', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.033, 'n_observed': 122712, 'notes': "FAIL, and it...
EMTF resistivity discriminates fluid-rich vs stable crust
20260609_emtf_resistivity_discriminates_f_3d4ddf91
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'd446d95156a4876a875e6cbca1ecbc2345c69897', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0606, 'n_observed': 22, 'notes': 'FAIL (narrow). EMTF...
EMTF v2: broadband min-resistivity discriminates fluid-rich vs stable crust
20260609_emtf_v2_broadband_min_resistivit_0024a9ef
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'df85c5751e86f7c7d6d857b877755a3c5e0a0871', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.2655, 'n_observed': 22, 'notes': "FAIL (clearer than...
Microseism -10h precursor as a SHADOW 24-36h EQ notice: skill over base rate (forward held-out)
20260701_microseism_10h_precursor_as_a_sh_47d7b6f5
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '673dff0ac5e4841da96c6dd84964911ac8411165', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.08, 'n_observed': 82, 'notes': "DISCONFIRMED by...
MT phase-tensor crustal mean-phase discriminates fluid-associated fault sites from basin/craton controls
20260705_mt_phase_tensor_crustal_mean_pha_b1dd0fa6
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '286f97bf90860be1e2202080f3d8fcba713b92b2', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.00926, 'n_observed': 17, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
MT phase-tensor crustal skew discriminates fluid-associated fault sites from basin/craton controls
20260705_mt_phase_tensor_crustal_skew_dis_c577e798
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '1d911dfcfe431108792b7730cb87b9ec1de09d3d', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.936, 'n_observed': 16, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
VQ31 virtual creepmeter v0.1 GNSS+InSAR vs Parkfield UL creepmeters
20260708_vq31_virtual_creepmeter_v0_1_gns_ae525a54
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'c0a8127ccf688b956d2851d49447d0010916a004', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.64, 'n_observed': 11, 'notes': 'v0.1 PASS -- all three...
VQ33 virtual wave buoy from coastal microseism vs held-out NDBC
20260708_vq33_virtual_wave_buoy_from_coas_031574ae
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'bb3eeebe3fdb3fada92b2b5bbf1a0946800c3672', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.233, 'n_observed': 10, 'notes': "v1 NULL as locked:...
VQ33v2 virtual wave buoy open-ocean pairing vs nearest-surviving-buoy baseline
20260708_vq33v2_virtual_wave_buoy_open_oc_494e9af7
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e04d62e9107f973819a17f613fa7e36fe6e1941d', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.856, 'n_observed': 6, 'notes': 'v2 PARTIAL: r criterion...
VQ34 virtual geothermometer beats IDW on held-out heat-flow wells
20260708_vq34_virtual_geothermometer_beat_b380f98d
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'a231190ec014994e055cac0dad48843f24f2f89b', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.221, 'n_observed': 7279, 'notes': 'v1 NULL on raw file...
VQ34v2 geothermometer beats IDW on QC-capped heat-flow wells
20260708_vq34v2_geothermometer_beats_idw__81af9a0b
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '64ce29dfda907fe860f2bb7977ae684b4b979baa', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.031, 'n_observed': 6252, 'notes': 'v2 CLEAN NULL:...
VQ41 lunar tidal quake gauge predicts held-out Apollo deep moonquakes
20260709_vq41_lunar_tidal_quake_gauge_pre_ee6ba102
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e5ca0eeba7799f2c114cfd0e1c637a91ee93f753', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.0651, 'n_observed': 477, 'notes': 'PASS -- first off-world...
Springboard test: US6985816B2 - Methods and systems for determining the orientation of natural fractures
20260712_springboard_test_us6985816b2_met_474a72f6
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ddeb060ffccb0e6f1dc198f85d53f3ea7d8f6cdb', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.603, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PASS (marginal, exactly...
Deep-water fault venting at Pine Valley: anomalous tidally-modulated cloud formation over the Hurricane Fault pressurized segment
20260713_deep_water_fault_venting_at_pine_63364a5e
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e776066ebe0ab569f1431f9da7129a55b9a973be', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.5246, 'n_observed': 73223, 'notes': 'NULL on the locked...
VQ42 Virtual Moho Gauge: H-k receiver-function crustal thickness vs CRUST1.0
20260713_vq42_virtual_moho_gauge_h_k_rece_80e2b823
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ddeb060ffccb0e6f1dc198f85d53f3ea7d8f6cdb', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -3.227, 'n_observed': 22, 'notes': 'PARTIAL: recovers Moho...
vq43 virtual single-station Mw gauge Brune spectral moment reproducibility
20260713_vq43_virtual_single_station_mw_g_5bfdd766
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'f5eadb3213ade1adb54eaba0d03c613fc93bb286', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.78, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PASS: single-station...
vq45 virtual anisotropy field SKS shear-wave splitting reproducibility
20260713_vq45_virtual_anisotropy_field_sk_ffb62804
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '24b64e03b15ffe536fc1cf4721574bb6cdc3dd9b', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.43, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PARTIAL (real...
Pine Valley barometric-pumping cloud response (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_barometric_pumping_c_5d6c8b00
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b87aee0cf1deb545102252e3aa43496c1c749313', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.001, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'PASS on the LOCKED...
Pine Valley fortnightly/spring-neap cloud modulation (threshold-tidal fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_fortnightly_spring_n_b97d3ad8
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '8f02c39c4004b609738eca5d6c196f58095efa7a', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.164, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'NULL: fault...
Pine Valley M2 lunar-tidal cloud modulation (fault venting)
20260714_pine_valley_m2_lunar_tidal_cloud_b26f1d93
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'c9dbd0b84843dca02b1a7f3f386b9260ce219dd1', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.5246, 'n_observed': 73224, 'notes': '',...
Pine Valley seasonal hydrologic-loading lagged venting (fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seasonal_hydrologic__e82c2420
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b87aee0cf1deb545102252e3aa43496c1c749313', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.4032, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'NULL: fault peak...
Pine Valley seismic dynamic-triggering venting burst (superposed-epoch, fault exceeds controls)
20260714_pine_valley_seismic_dynamic_trig_300290ad
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '8f02c39c4004b609738eca5d6c196f58095efa7a', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.479, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'NULL: fault...
UT+NV fault-venting flatter summer diurnal cloud cycle vs matched flat-basin controls
20260714_ut_nv_fault_venting_flatter_summ_4e5e8a1c
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '421cb401a15152c29e3acf11f46cdc34bbc39d94', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.1626, 'n_observed': 43, 'notes': 'NULL (well-powered,...
Convergence-gated microseism 10h notice beats ungated
20260715_convergence_gated_microseism_10h_0eff9c3a
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '91fc6a7840a514aba8337e181af76b3c020e6cc9', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0368, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'DISCONFIRMED /...
Escalation-signature scale invariance M4 vs M5 plus (US)
20260715_escalation_signature_scale_invar_3a64d89f
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e7f52ce0def62eb4eb23a39337041d64220ec121', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.838, 'n_observed': 685, 'notes': "PASS_scale_invariant....
Replenishable-basin loading is deep-decoupled from surface mass, strongest where loading rate is highest
20260715_replenishable_basin_loading_is_d_06cf1059
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '44f6b50db77982e1ce685cc4915e5d8e723f8710', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.3214, 'n_observed': 7, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
Magnitude-scaled forecast window raises M6+ hit rate without moving the M<6 bulk
20260716_magnitude_scaled_forecast_window_fb872e19
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '0bfce8aec2ed9763ddf8ecccfa629e23bc239b72', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': -0.017, 'n_observed': 2784, 'notes': 'Graded 2026-09-02...
ETAS-derived per-region probability beats the incumbent tensor_eq_per_region classifier on a temporal holdout
20260719_etas_derived_per_region_probabil_0ad8c552
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'dbfe90630b0f15ca182ae4f0d5059ab4b3b6b3c5', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': 3, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path': None,...
Tensor adds magnitude information on top of ETAS beyond a recalibrated b-value
20260719_tensor_adds_magnitude_informatio_3b3bf3bc
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'd7dd8e0c94ba7046a2ba34540d1a4b763923e424', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0, 'n_observed': 3, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path': None,...
chile_peru ETAS 7-day probability retains AUC >= 0.60 on held-out 2019-2026
20260720_chile_peru_etas_7_day_probabilit_0aa760c4
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '0a6cc78373b89e6e98ca0da8ebe268cdadeccd4e', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.493, 'n_observed': 338, 'notes': '', 'ots_proof_path':...
Microseism precursor operating point z>=10 holds forward at precision >= 0.10
20260720_microseism_precursor_operating_p_61a24c94
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '91fc6a7840a514aba8337e181af76b3c020e6cc9', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0368, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'DISCONFIRMED /...
Microseism precursor spatial mechanism: epicentre-organized source vs ambient ocean field vs station-local artifact
20260724_microseism_precursor_spatial_mec_ea481761
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '91fc6a7840a514aba8337e181af76b3c020e6cc9', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0259, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'DISCONFIRMED...
Yellowstone abiogenic-HC negative control: upper-T fix corrects caldera-center false positive
20260725_yellowstone_abiogenic_hc_negativ_bae9aa51
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'd3a5fc3c6a8d921c6bf1e9f33c02bcfd389b964f', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 2.0, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'FORWARD TEST FAILED...
CoSMoS biomedical transfer: cardiac-phase demodulation vs fixed-FFT sideband stack on BIDMC PPG+Respiration
20260807_cosmos_biomedical_transfer_cardi_7b8ae746
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'f1cf1586c04c84a8ea4988c61d63414676510bfd', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 1.974242649002974e-08, 'n_observed': 53, 'notes': 'PASS on...
DM magnetometer-channel v1 sidereal-line coherent-stack search (CoSMoS)
20260807_dm_magnetometer_channel_v1_sider_296ee71c
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '7fd445546e00a53dae634b03ebcf7905ffd43693', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 147.14556003587398, 'n_observed': 11, 'notes': "CAPPED...
Microseism precursor spatial mechanism v2: weighted sign test on 1995-2009 back-extended archive (C3 primary)
20260807_microseism_precursor_spatial_mec_eb705438
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '91fc6a7840a514aba8337e181af76b3c020e6cc9', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0259, 'n_observed': None, 'notes': 'DISCONFIRMED...
Multi-messenger Arm A: triggered-stack pipeline validation on solar-flare SID/SFE (CoSMoS)
20260807_multi_messenger_arm_a_triggered__18d235db
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '885795b4e2742fa61da920a8618f105eb0c7a766', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0357964, 'n_observed': 101, 'notes': 'NOT VALIDATED (NOT...
Ultralight scalar-DM oscillating-coupling search v2 + methods addendum: coherent SG-network stack, corrected sealed-criteria implementation (HYP-9feedf7f; SUPERSEDES v1 6affe307)
20260807_ultralight_scalar_dm_oscillating_e252f6bd
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '7fd445546e00a53dae634b03ebcf7905ffd43693', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0, 'n_observed': 50, 'notes': "CLEAN NULL -- VERDICT...
Antipodal triggering at PKIKP focusing scale: M6.5+ within 200km of a M7.0+ antipode in 30d
20260815_antipodal_triggering_at_pkikp_fo_9982109b
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ef9f5169c6de5cf6cc7998ec296c6b517958384b', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': 0, 'notes': "UNRESOLVED per the lock's...
Coronal-hole high-speed streams elevate the global M6.5+ rate within 48h
20260815_coronal_hole_high_speed_streams__d599a50d
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '95a278a440894c183f294129e95cac8a691c64e5', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.811, 'n_observed': 6, 'notes': "NULL. 31 HSS onsets...
Slichter 1S1 triplet search v2 on the piece-3 cleaned IGETS store: sealed matched-filter criterion, detection-candidate or A95 bound
20260822_slichter_1s1_triplet_search_v2_o_9af67bec
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'c462facfbb5b1194cc7d369cb4ed99e06c111558', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': 18, 'notes': "OUTCOME CLASS: NULL_A95...
Slichter 1S1 search v4: the first Q-aware (damped-transient) bound, plus exclusion-radius fix and inverse-variance weighting
20260823_slichter_1s1_search_v4_the_first_84e85c3b
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e8f8900de0fd010360f20aa73a3921b9040203e2', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': 20, 'notes': "OUTCOME: persistent tier...
Slichter 1S1 triplet search v3: identical v2 instrument on the full-archive store (306 station-years, x2.54) -- pure data upgrade
20260823_slichter_1s1_triplet_search_v3_i_8a6809e7
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b1c2579813a64a4e33108519dc9210ce425211fa', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 1.0, 'n_observed': 17, 'notes': "OUTCOME CLASS: NULL_A95...
l=4 Wahr-1981 admixture in the M2 gravity tide -- method-frozen reproducible measurement (NULL_BOUND)
20260829_l_4_wahr_1981_admixture_in_the_m_2cb6bcb0
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '0e138fa39a110f821a104a0c1a412efa93f8ce43', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.076, 'n_observed': 21, 'notes': "eps_4 = +0.076% +- 0.30%;...
Slichter 1S1 search v6 -- M3-satellite-cleaned store, forward-blind C3 + scored pass
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v6_m3_satell_b3cd85d5
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'ffa85548a295ac54bd5869caa800996a8cdef08d', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 7.73, 'n_observed': 3, 'notes': "FORWARD-BLIND RESULT (run...
Slichter 1S1 search v7 -- nodal (f,u) M3 forest correction (full re-clean)
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v7_nodal_f_u_4d21a75a
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '72c95f4335a3e6a861572dfb66e905dfa2209877', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 77.0, 'n_observed': 3, 'notes': "FORWARD-BLIND RESULT (graded...
Slichter 1S1 search v9 -- line-masked kstar (estimator-level fix)
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v9_line_mask_8579f6b3
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '8b9a746c6dc79d0d650e335a1103079564463b7c', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 31.4, 'n_observed': 3, 'notes': 'FORWARD-BLIND RESULT (graded...
DM Magnetic K1 Adjudication v2.4 -- graded oceanic injector + arm (e) spatial vote (closes the v2.3 oceanic false-DM hole)
20260903_dm_magnetic_k1_adjudication_v2_4_cf01e1fb
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'b5e8ce2a9392e5a95d523f5b83c4f0ad08739b1b', 'interpretation': 'confirming', 'metric_value': 0.0, 'n_observed': 500, 'notes': 'SEALS AS ADJUDICATION --...
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1.3 (memory-only amendment, byte-identical to v1.2 01fea7ac)
20260904_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_2a4273ed
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'd404e7728d11247188c5d154f49064511f367582', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 4.98, 'n_observed': 0, 'notes': 'NULL_BOUND as...
EMSC low-Mc extra-trigger admission adds mainshock-only ETAS timing IG in Indonesia (SHADOW v0-core)
20260908_emsc_low_mc_extra_trigger_admiss_919d04af
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': '5f23613443a92278c57897cca417a44575ef1c81', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 0.0071, 'n_observed': 341, 'notes': 'VERDICT UNRESOLVED....
MT-vs-borehole reference curve is AORT (array-induction true Rt), and MT agrees within 3x
20260913_mt_vs_borehole_reference_curve_i_bc29754c
Outcome:
{'git_commit_at_test': 'e3d65b35e4394638fcbc01de308cf5db771d4068', 'interpretation': 'disconfirming', 'metric_value': 3.76, 'n_observed': 12, 'notes': "FAILED on the BLIND...
Hypotheses withdrawn before the test window closed — typically because
the underlying model went silent or the test became untestable as
stated. We don't delete withdrawn entries; the OTS proof is preserved
alongside the JSON so the audit trail is intact.
cross_physics_earthquake_alert_cycle hit rate stays under 20% in 8 quiet regions (iran/iceland/myanmar_bangladesh/azores/new_zealand/newberry/trans_mexico/ukraine) over next 90d, while global rate stays above 50%
20260504_cross_physics_earthquake_alert_c_ff460a64
Diagnosis revealed cross_physics_earthquake_alert_cycle has been silent since 2026-04-13 (last prediction 21 days ago). The model is NOT actively firing predictions, so the forward-test 'failure persists at <20% over 90d' is untestable -- the rate is undefined when the model emits no predictions. Last-30-day analysis showed 4 of the 8 named regions (iran, myanmar_bangladesh, new_zealand, trans_mexico) are now well-covered by tensor_eq_per_region / earthquake_magnitude_predictor / others. The 4 genuine remaining blind spots (iceland, azores, newberry, ukraine) are low-magnitude volcanic-rift / stable-interior zones where the issue is expected_mag_min floor too high. Re-registering as a per-region magnitude floor intervention hypothesis.
RS+ETAS caldera forecaster HIGH/CRITICAL alerts hit at >=50% over 90-day forward test
20260506_rs_etas_caldera_forecaster_high__eb9944b0
INVALID TEST -- the instrument was broken for the entire forward window. fetch_uplift_rate_mm_yr pointed at the retired NGL IGS14 path (404 since the Jun 2026 IGS20 migration; this module was the one of six missed in commit 5ed76bf8), so every uplift fetch silently fell back to the 50 mm/yr literature prior. That froze uplift_mm_yr=50.0 and rs_amp=8.2652 identically across all 66 HIGH/CRITICAL rows -- above the CRITICAL threshold of 5.0 by pure arithmetic, so the forecaster emitted CRITICAL regardless of data. The alerts under test were therefore NOT produced by the deformation-driven RS+ETAS mechanism this hypothesis names. Live GPS (fixed 2026-07-18) gives Campi Flegrei -10.61 mm/yr (subsiding) and rs_amp 0.6388 -> NOMINAL, a 13x overstatement in the alarm-manufacturing direction. The observed ~91-95 pct match rate is further confounded by an always-on alarm against continuous bradyseismic unrest credited by an INGV matcher at minmag=1.5 (requiring M>=3.0 drops it to ~30 pct, M>=4.0 to ~8 pct). Neither passed nor failed: untestable as run. Superseded by a v2 forward test on live deformation with a magnitude floor and a coverage-null bar. Record preserved per Section 7 of the methodological-nulls bundle.
Goldfinger Option #3 paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost lifts paired-prediction match rate by >=2x over unpaired baseline
20260510_goldfinger_option_3_paired_megaf_9e4c90a0
Predictor companion not shipped at lock time -- the cross_physics/paired_megafault_monitor.py module was a tensor-feature builder + run_demo dumper only, with zero log_prediction() call sites and no cron entry. Aug 8 evaluator on 2026-05-21 found paired_n=0 over 17 days of supposed forward window. Re-registered as v2 (20260521_*) once cross_physics/paired_megafault_predictor.py + GATES_BY_MODEL entry + cron land in PR. Underlying Goldfinger 2025 science unchanged; this is a tooling completion.
OGC top-decile cells in Sevier Desert cluster on basin-margin trap fairway, NOT in basin interior (Predictive Geology H1)
20260511_ogc_top_decile_cells_in_sevier_d_4eb375da
UNTESTABLE AS SEALED, withdrawn 2026-09-14 -- not disconfirmed, never runnable. (1) POPULATION: the protocol plans 'N >= 500 wells-present cells, power >0.95'; the Sevier Desert/Pavant/Black Rock/Beaver basin holds 132 deep wells inside the sealed bbox (ut_wells_features_v2.csv), so <=132 such cells can exist. The seal's own population estimate was ~5x optimistic because the basin is under-drilled, which is why it is a frontier play. (2) PREMISE CONTRADICTED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS: the seal assumes 'random baseline for these basins is median ~40-45' and predicts dry-wildcat cells at median <=25. Measured on a uniform grid over the same bbox the baseline is far below 25, so nothing can fail the threshold; and the companion H3 (865aa86c) measured dry wells scoring HIGHER than producers (rank-biserial -0.4088, 95% CI [-0.6366,-0.1587]), i.e. the predicted direction is reversed. (3) INSTRUMENT: the scorer named in git_commit_at_registration (e182c4a2) returns ogc_data_real=0 with 0/5 axes at every point in the target area, so the sealed metric cannot be computed as sealed at all. Re-issue forward only with a population that exists and a baseline measured rather than assumed.
Phase 5 microseism universal precursor is the leading edge of a 5-day stress-state cycle straddling rupture, with peak signal at +134h post-event NOT lag -10h
20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_41a196bf
Mis-filed: never actually withdrawn despite being superseded. Its own successor 20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_dad7e9e7 (CORRECTED ADDENDUM, locked the same day) states it "supersedes withdrawn hypothesis 20260514_phase_5_microseism_universal_pre_41a196bf (which contained a coordinate bug)" -- but this entry remained status=locked, withdrawn=None, and absent from hypotheses/withdrawn/ for three months, so it was counted as a LIVE forward test the whole time. Withdrawn 2026-08-11 for the originally-stated reason (coordinate bug in the Time-A v3 time-reversed stacking experiment); the corrected replacement dad7e9e7 stands. Preserved, not deleted -- the record of the error is the point.
Passive HC composite v0.1 discriminates Central Utah Thrust Belt producers from Basin-Range controls on AX41 5-channel re-run
20260521_passive_hc_composite_v0_1_discri_94855e4f
UNDERPOWERED. AX41 backtest 2026-05-21T23:09Z revealed mss (spectral_splitting_monitor) returned data_real=0 at all 10 sites despite the hypothesis explicitly requiring full FDSN access for both pol_em + mss. Only 4 of 5 channels actually fired. The headline +0.259 producer-control mean delta passes the locked +0.20 threshold, but the result is fragile: Anschutz Ranch's 0.955 composite is a low-n geomean artifact (3 of 5 channels = sat_hsi saturated, both EM channels dead). Excluding Anschutz: producer mean 0.46, control mean 0.37, delta +0.09 -- below threshold. False-positive rate 60% at threshold 0.30 (Sevier Lake basin axis + Park City porphyry + GSL center all fire) confirms the v0.1 composite cannot discriminate HC microseepage kaolinite from natural background kaolinite. Re-registering as v0.2 with 50km radius regional anomaly normalization on sat_hsi matched-filter scores (the canonical Moulton Radiometric Plus approach to background subtraction). Withdrawn locked v0.1 JSON (file sha256 2b6cb590c961a90a860f47491f514d978f20ea923642fb63971b4c159f6ed114) + .ots Bitcoin anchor preserved in hypotheses/withdrawn/ per registry convention. Per CLAUDE.md Phase 65u-RIGOR.
v2: paired-megafault paleoseismic prior boost (post-predictor) -- paired predictions match rate >=2x unpaired baseline
20260521_v2_paired_megafault_paleoseismic_70095bae
Sealed withdraw-if clause: paired_n = 0 < 5 over the forward window (2026-05-21 -> 2026-08-19). The predictor ran HOURLY the whole window (cron alive, log verified 2026-08-22: 'scanned 1 pairs, 0 joint-elevated, 0 predictions logged, dry_run=False' every run; ledger hash chain valid) -- so this is branch 1 of the clause, a legitimate scientific null (no joint-elevation events occurred), NOT v1's dead-cron failure. A v3 with a recalibrated elevation gate is optional, not owed.
MARS-A2: 0S0 fundamental whole-Earth radial mode at ~814 µHz period 20.5 min detected at p<0.001 across >=5 of 25 IGETS Superconducting Gravimeter stations using Hanning-window FFT coherent stacking
20260526_mars_a2_0s0_fundamental_whole_ea_1b0bbb26
UNTESTABLE AS REGISTERED at due date (2026-08-24), not disconfirmed -- June-1 precedent. The registered instrument (2009-2026 multi-window coherent stack + 50,000-draw block bootstrap per station, p<0.001, >=5 of 24-25 stations) was never built; it is D.1-SPRINT-scale engineering. The v0.1 proxy script DID run on real data 2026-08-22 (24/24 stations, EOST L2 from data/igets -- the lockfile data_source named a stale path igets_sg_archive -- 60-day most-recent windows, n=86400 min each, peak SNR max 1.26, 0 stations >= SNR 3): recorded as a PRELIMINARY 60-day-window constraint only, explicitly NOT the registered test and NOT the grade. Reissued forward as v2 with an instrument-readiness gate.
Array-stacking tensor features raise per-region EQ classifier held-out AUC
20260601_array_stacking_tensor_features_r_fd3984ed
UNTESTABLE AS SPECIFIED -- withdrawn 2026-08-11, not disconfirmed. The claim was never evaluated and this is not a null result.
Measured by scripts/eq_tensor_ablation.py over the 90 d window: 3,056 tensor_eq_per_region predictions, 718 skipped as unresolved, 2,338 with no alignable tensor snapshot -> ZERO usable rows. Two independent walls:
(1) ALIGNMENT. state_snapshots stores a bare positional vector with no name manifest. feature_manifests was introduced 2026-08-08 and holds ONE manifest; 302 of 8,760 snapshots carry a layout_sha (3.4% of the archive, spanning Aug 8-11). The entire 2026-06-01 -> 2026-08-08 window this hypothesis was sealed over is unlabelled. 230 distinct widths exist, and width cannot identify a layout because two different name lists can share a length, so the archive cannot be read retrospectively without guessing.
(2) MATURITY. Inside the manifest window no prediction has expired, so there are no final outcomes to train against.
The seal and the Bitcoin anchor were sound throughout. What failed is that nobody checked AT LOCK TIME that the data required to grade the claim would still be readable at grading time -- the manifest system that would have made it gradeable arrived 68 days after the lock.
Additionally, the 0.005 threshold is below this test design s noise floor: subsample=0.8 makes each fit stochastic and dropping columns shifts the RNG stream, so a single-fit ablation moves held-out AUC by about +-0.018 even when the removed block is identically zero. The re-issue averages over seeds and regions and refuses to return PASS/FAIL when the standard error exceeds the threshold.
Re-issued as a forward test with re-eval 2026-11-10 over manifest-covered snapshots only. The idea is not retracted; this instance is.
Satellite tensor block raises per-region EQ classifier held-out AUC
20260601_satellite_tensor_block_raises_pe_984c1982
UNTESTABLE AS SPECIFIED -- withdrawn 2026-08-11, not disconfirmed. The claim was never evaluated and this is not a null result.
Measured by scripts/eq_tensor_ablation.py over the 90 d window: 3,056 tensor_eq_per_region predictions, 718 skipped as unresolved, 2,338 with no alignable tensor snapshot -> ZERO usable rows. Two independent walls:
(1) ALIGNMENT. state_snapshots stores a bare positional vector with no name manifest. feature_manifests was introduced 2026-08-08 and holds ONE manifest; 302 of 8,760 snapshots carry a layout_sha (3.4% of the archive, spanning Aug 8-11). The entire 2026-06-01 -> 2026-08-08 window this hypothesis was sealed over is unlabelled. 230 distinct widths exist, and width cannot identify a layout because two different name lists can share a length, so the archive cannot be read retrospectively without guessing.
(2) MATURITY. Inside the manifest window no prediction has expired, so there are no final outcomes to train against.
The seal and the Bitcoin anchor were sound throughout. What failed is that nobody checked AT LOCK TIME that the data required to grade the claim would still be readable at grading time -- the manifest system that would have made it gradeable arrived 68 days after the lock.
Additionally, the 0.005 threshold is below this test design s noise floor: subsample=0.8 makes each fit stochastic and dropping columns shifts the RNG stream, so a single-fit ablation moves held-out AUC by about +-0.018 even when the removed block is identically zero. The re-issue averages over seeds and regions and refuses to return PASS/FAIL when the standard error exceeds the threshold.
Re-issued as a forward test with re-eval 2026-11-10 over manifest-covered snapshots only. The idea is not retracted; this instance is.
VQ32 virtual stream gauge from fluvial seismic noise vs co-located NWIS
20260708_vq32_virtual_stream_gauge_from_f_4f88fc9e
Pre-specified underpowered clause: 5 geometric pairs found but UU.LTU gauge (10126180) aligned 0 hours -> 4 surviving pairs < locked minimum 5. Of the 4 that ran, 0 passed -- even RE.EACA at 0.6 km showed raw rho 0.202 collapsing to -0.045 after the pre-stated cubic detrend: the correlation was the shared seasonal runoff trend, exactly what the climatology rule was built to catch. PHYSICS: fluvial seismic noise detections (Burtin 2008) are on large turbulent rivers; small UT/WA/AK creeks (10-100 cfs) do not lift 1-7 Hz power above ambient at 0.6-4 km. A v2 would pair stations with MAJOR rivers (Colorado/Snake/Columbia class) -- separate future registration.
VQ36 stress rosette predicts held-out WSM SHmax azimuth
20260708_vq36_stress_rosette_predicts_hel_2f807511
Pre-specified withdraw clause fired: only 22 A-C WSM sites where input channels are real (3 in UGS gravity-grid box + 19 within 50km of anv_ prewarm sites) vs locked minimum 30 -> UNDERPOWERED. Audit also found stress_orientation_calibration.py READS WSM, so the locked soc_shmax_regional covariate would have been circular (target leakage) and required exclusion regardless. A v2 with NATIONAL covariates (qfault orientation density, focal mechanisms) is a separate future registration.
imminent_convergence_72h forward test: >=70% resolved hit rate
20260712_imminent_convergence_72h_forward_4ec47bcd
Superseded pre-launch, zero data accrued: Mike directed shadow-mode testing before any public exposure, so the tier records to a private shadow ledger (data/imminent_shadow.jsonl) instead of prediction_ledger.db. Re-registered as v2 with the shadow data source + --evaluate USGS scoring; metric, threshold (>=70% at n>=30), and 90-day window unchanged.
24h escalation shadow tier forward precision
20260715_24h_escalation_shadow_tier_forwa_b5e93582
INVALID TEST, not a failed one. Two defects in the instrument were found on 2026-07-18, both inside the forward window. (1) decluster_onsets sized its aftershock-exclusion radius from the trigger magnitude instead of the preceding events, so aftershocks were admitted as sequence onsets: 4 of the 7 distinct flags logged under this lock were aftershocks, three of them within 1.2h of a single M7.3 off Puerto Madero. (2) The calibration was fit on study onsets selected the same way, so its 8.4pct base rate was inflated by aftershock sequences whose later events trivially exceeded a small trigger. Corrected: GK74 windows sized by the preceding event, study re-run (1817 triggers to 1453 onsets, 523 usable sequences, base rate 5.0pct), calibration re-fit (threshold 0.60, in-sample precision 0.146 = 2.9x base). The locked test measured a model that no longer exists; the 8 records are quarantined to escalation_shadow_PRE_DECLUSTER_FIX.jsonl and excluded from any forward record. Superseded by the v3 registration.
v3 24h escalation shadow tier forward test (post decluster fix)
20260719_v3_24h_escalation_shadow_tier_fo_df265de9
Underpowered by instrument, not by hypothesis. Two independent population limits measured 2026-07-22: (1) only 5 percent of global M5+ onsets have >=3 delivering stations within 300 km, and outside that the public M2.5+ catalogue is too sparse for early_features; (2) a train/serve skew -- the calibration was fitted on settled catalogues (37 percent usable) but the tier serves at 24-96h on provisional ones (13 percent usable). Neither permits n=30 by the 2026-10-16 re-evaluation. See reports/methodological_nulls/escalation_tier_population_limits.md
Dynamic magnitude evaluator (Poisson-Gutenberg-Richter band) beats the tier-lookup band on out-of-sample calibration
20260723_dynamic_magnitude_evaluator_pois_ed6a2456
INVALID TEST, not a failed one -- withdrawn before it ran, so nothing is contaminated. The locked primary metric scores 'fraction of matched OBSERVATIONS inside the band', but the locked formula P(Mmax < m) is the CDF of the LARGEST event in the window. Those are different objects. Measured on 120 days of ledger: 12.7 observations per matched prediction (max 542), only 21% with a single observation, and magnitudes spanning M2.5-M8.1 WITHIN one prediction -- a 5.6-magnitude spread. A max-distribution band scored against every aftershock must under-cover, so the incumbent's wide M2.7-8.0 band would have won for a reason unrelated to physics and the FAIL would have been uninterpretable. Scoring per-observation is also a unit-of-analysis error in its own right: 12.7 correlated aftershocks of one sequence are not 12.7 independent tests, which is the exact defect the Jul-18 audit was about. Superseded by v2, which scores the MAXIMUM observed magnitude per prediction -- one score per prediction -- fixing both the object mismatch and the independence problem. Formula, parameter policy, width guard, uninformative condition and withdraw gate all carry over unchanged.
dense-array predicts a deep-interface contrast between drill targets 0034 and 0087 that any independent method at those points must reproduce
20260821_pmri_predicts_a_deep_interface_c_c8759acd
PASS threshold 1.25x sits below the clean neighbor-pair median scatter of 1.30x (measured 2026-08-21 on 43 genuine deep resonances), so it would pass on noise. Re-issued forward with the deep threshold raised to 1.5x. NOT re-graded -- never tested; withdrawn before any grading data existed.
dense-array survey-1 HVSR predicts the deep interface at drill target 0034 is at least 1.5x deeper than at 0087, with the shallow interface unchanged
20260821_pmri_survey_1_hvsr_predicts_the__9050733c
FOUNDATION IS NOISE. Measured 2026-08-21: the master_sensors HVSR f0_amplitude is 0.44-0.58 for all 45 RattleSnake sensors (0034=0.501, 0087=0.515), 0/45 above 1.0 -- master never found a resonance, it reported the argmax of a flat sub-1 vertical-dominated H/V curve. The validated pipeline re-run on the raw 16 Hz data independently reproduces the flat curve (H/V ~0.5, 0/22 stations with a peak >1.5, split-and-stack does not rescue it). Confirmed portfolio-wide: 15 of 16 dense-array surveys sit at f0_amp ~0.5; only Scott Field (3.28) has a real resonance. The 0034 vs 0087 contrast is the gap between two noise picks. WITHDRAWN, not re-issued -- there is no HVSR deep interface to predict. Deep structure at the drill collar rests on gravity alone (+-56% PDFs) plus active-source/WillowStick.
Slichter 1S1 search v9 -- line-masked kstar (estimator-level fix)
20260829_slichter_1s1_search_v9_line_mask_6432d7ef
recorded estimator sha was the Windows CRLF working-copy hash; re-sealing forward-blind with the canonical LF/git sha b4089bce (no scored pass ran -- refused on sha mismatch)
Earth x Mars cross-planetary ultralight-DM Compton-line coherence search v1 (amendment of v0 1084ce55)
20260902_earth_x_mars_cross_planetary_ult_75974252
SUPERSEDED BEFORE ANY RUN by v1.1 (scale amendment). Frozen code 261e7de3 as registered would have held a K x 4.6e6 complex matrix per body (~100 GB at the frozen core K ~1,500) and run the exact lock-in on 3,000 bins x every patch for the equivalence gate (~60 h); neither had been exercised at scale (synthetic check ran at K=250 on a 40k-bin local grid). No real Compton bin was ever scored under this entry; its OTS stamp (pending) is kept as history. v1.1 precomputes fine spectra once, interpolates in 200k-bin chunks, and gates equivalence on a 40-patch x 600-bin subset -- same arithmetic, same bars.