Prediction Track Record

Cryptographically verified predictions matched against real-world events. Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed before the event occurs.

Last 30 days: every M6.0+ earthquake on Earth

Ground truth: the USGS ComCat catalog — so a miss is a real miss and shows here the day it happens. HIT = the event was preceded by a logged, hash-anchored forecast that later matched it.

MagDate (UTC)LocationLeadProof
HIT M6.1 2026-10-12 17 km W of Río Grande, Panama 6.4 d 26a3c6569ddb8e79…
HIT M6.2 2026-10-11 79 km SSE of Panguna, Papua New Guinea 6.8 d 7259b2677cbb221a…
HIT M6 2026-10-10 7 km N of La Tronosa, Panama 6.8 d 1887e5e15d509969…
HIT M6.6 2026-10-09 14 km W of Río Grande, Panama 7.0 d 003e41f68b75b6aa…
HIT M7.7 2026-10-09 12 km WSW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama 6.9 d 003e41f68b75b6aa…
HIT M6.3 2026-10-08 102 km NE of Norsup, Vanuatu 6.2 d 78630bf3dc555760…
HIT M6.6 2026-09-25 80 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia 6.1 d 015190c873aa9ac7…
HIT M6.4 2026-09-20 50 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea 20.8 d 7f89004049df428b…
HIT M6.5 2026-09-17 177 km W of Nikolski, Alaska 21.0 d 81799018189c4f88…

Coverage: M6.0+ 9/9 · M5.5+ 25/27 · M5.0+ 160/170 (coverage of catalog events by matched forecasts — not a skill claim)

Does this beat chance? The measured answer.

On where to look — not yet. We currently hold 90.2% of the world's seismicity under alarm and catch 87.4% of the earthquakes (354/405, 90 d, M5.0+). Alarming that same fraction of ground at random would catch 90.2%. Area Skill Score 0.4865, where 0.5 is no skill — integrated over the full alarm-threshold trajectory, not a single operating point (the single-point approximation reads 0.4863, which is optimistic). This number cannot be improved by alarming more — widening the alarm drives it toward 0.5 by construction.

The same score: one correction and one check. Shown beside the published number, not instead of it.

VersionArea Skill ScoreWhat is different
Published 0.4865 Counts aftershocks of earthquakes just before the window as earthquakes to catch.
Corrected for earlier earthquakes — Removes them first: it takes out aftershocks of earthquakes from the 5 years before the window, then scores what is left.
Not computed this week.
Check: no free ground — A check, not a new score. A zero-weight cell is a 1-degree square with no M5+ earthquake in the 3 years before the window, so the published score charges nothing for alarming it. This version charges every alarmed square a small minimum; if it matches the published score, our alarms were not getting free credit there.
Not computed this week.

0.5 is no skill; below 0.5 is worse than no skill. These are scores, not percentages.

On how likely — yes, newly. After per-model recalibration, 3 of 4 models reach positive out-of-sample skill (n-weighted mean of per-model out-of-sample Brier Skill Score +0.0618, where 0 is no better than quoting the base rate), from an expanding-window walk-forward. Recalibration is monotone, so it moves this number and leaves the Area Skill Score untouched — they are different products.

Separately, conditioned on a forecast having been issued: the when-issued full-magnitude rate is 66.9% (n=1198, trailing 30 d, expired M4+). That is a narrower question than the two above — it says nothing about how much ground we alarmed to get it, which is exactly what the Area Skill Score measures. Reproducible from public catalogs; every forecast hash-anchored before its event.

Where earthquakes cluster — the hazard map.

On where they happen — yes. Our smoothed-seismicity map places 95.7% of real future M5.0+ earthquakes within 50 km of where it flags — a median miss of just 6.6 km (Molchan spatial score 0.978, where 0.5 is no skill), tested out-of-sample on 5202 earthquakes the map was never trained on.

Read this correctly: this is WHERE earthquakes cluster — the field-standard seismic-hazard map — not WHEN one is coming. The 0.978 is spatial localization; it is not a percentage of earthquakes predicted, and picking the day remains at chance (see above). A full forecast is where × when × size — this is the where, done honestly and reproducibly from public catalogs.

Updated 2026-10-13T04:45:42+00:00 · every forecast SHA-256 hashed + Bitcoin-anchored before the event · raw JSON · our numbers, explained

Open Forecast Skill Exchange NOW OPEN

The track record above is ours. The Exchange is the open version: a public, hash-chained, pre-registered scoreboard anyone can enter. Every submitted forecast is SHA-256 hashed and its hash committed to a tamper-evident chain before its window opens; it is then scored against the public earthquake catalog (USGS ComCat) on a fixed monthly cadence. Outcomes are annotated, never rewritten — the same discipline our own ledger runs under.

What makes a score trustworthy here
  • Forecast hash anchored before the window — no hindsight edits.
  • Ground truth is ComCat, re-runnable by anyone with one public API.
  • Magnitude floor M4.5 global (M4.0 inside dense US coverage, which is complete to M3.5 across ~97% of the conterminous US — see the coverage polygon), so a miss is a real miss.
  • Skill is reported with its alarm volume (Area Skill Score), never as a bare hit rate. Coverage is labeled coverage, never skill.
How to take part
  • Open lane at launch: submissions and scores are public.
  • Opt-in only. We never score a named person's public predictions without their submission — you enter your own forecasts, or a baseline we implement from a published method.
  • Register (double opt-in) and submit via the API: /api/v1/exchange/.

Live chain: checking…

Live · our reference baselines (climatology + persistence) are pre-registered for all 14 regions for the current monthly window, scored against ComCat when it closes — the null everyone is invited to beat · live chain (JSON) · status · our numbers, explained

17819
Total Predictions
12004
Confirmed
B
Avg Grade
85.2h
Avg Lead Time
629.7km
Avg Distance
67.4%
Confirmation Rate
Narrow High-Skill Products (tensor-outcome trained + reactive; live-ledger rates below)

These are the subset of predictions produced by classifiers trained on real event outcomes (not synthetic distributions) plus physics-constrained reactive products. Broken out here because they represent the honest upper bound of current forecasting skill.

Narrow Seismic
tensor_eq_per_region • tensor_eq_global • etas_aftershock • swarm_detector
78.0%
Hit Rate
7093
Predictions
5530
Matched
Narrow Solar (Phase 65h)
tensor_solar_flare_classifier — cross-validated, not temporal-holdout; the live-ledger hit rate below is the operational number
90.0%
Hit Rate
200
Predictions
180
Matched
Convergence Gate — multi-physics N≥3 agreement 97% specificity by construction (requires ≥3 channels at |z|≥2) ARMED · AWAITING

Fires only when ≥3 independent physics channels (seismic, electromagnetic, gravity, atmospheric, particle, oceanic, thermal, fluid) each cross a 2σ threshold in the same 15-min tensor snapshot. By construction, the expected false-positive rate at this gate is <3% for uncorrelated channels. This is the highest-precision, lowest-volume product in the ledger.
The gate is running on AX41 (13 * * * * cron); it has not yet produced its first ledger fire. That is expected behaviour at design-threshold: fires are supposed to be rare.

97.0%
Design Precision
—
Measured Hit Rate
0
Total Fires
0
Active
Cascadia + San Andreas Paired-Megafault Watch Goldfinger 2025 paleoseismic prior · 0.2%/yr LOADING…

Tests whether the Cascadia subduction zone AND the southern San Andreas (UCERF3) are both elevated above their typical 7-day rate in the same window. Goldfinger et al. 2025 (Geosphere 21(6):1132) identifies 3 paired Cascadia+SAF events in 1,500 years from sediment-core turbidite analysis -- the 1700 paired M~9 + M~7.5 is the most recent example. The paper deliberately stops at correlation; this card follows the same discipline.

Cascadia Subduction Zone
—
M3+ events / 7d
—
vs expected —
Southern San Andreas (UCERF3)
—
M3+ events / 7d
—
vs expected —
—
Posterior alert probability (next 7d) · paleoseismic prior 3.8e-5
Joint score: — / 100
data age: —

Prior derived from 3 paired co-occurrences in 1,500 yr turbidite stratigraphy (Goldfinger 2025).

0.01/7d hard cap encoded — we cannot claim recurrence stronger than paleoseismic evidence supports.

Industrial Magnitude Cascade Phase 65o — T-7d → T-36h → T-24h per region

Per-region tiered-horizon cascade for industrial shutdown protocols (smelters, chip fabs, rail). Each of the ~54 monitored earthquake regions independently emits up to 3 linked predictions per run — T-7d early warning, T-36h convergence tightening, T-24h industrial alert. Confidence thresholds are 0.60 / 0.75 / 0.85. Every tier carries the M0.5 band (or M0.25 once a region graduates on residual sigma ≤ 0.30 with ≥ 30 matched obs), a 95% CI, and a SHA-256 hash-chain entry.

T-7d
Early warning — conf ≥ 0.60
71.9%
Hit Rate
96
Total
69
Matched
0 active
T-36h
Convergence — conf ≥ 0.75
57.9%
Hit Rate
731
Total
423
Matched
0 active
T-24h
Industrial alert — conf ≥ 0.85
41.3%
Hit Rate
404
Total
167
Matched
0 active
Most-Active Regions (top 10 by cascade volume)
Region Total Matched Hit Rate Tiers Fired
indonesia 37 36 97.3% T-24h T-36h
cascadia 34 29 85.3% T-24h T-36h T-7d
alaska 33 33 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
caribbean_pr 33 32 97.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
tonga 33 32 97.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
japan 31 31 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
iceland 28 7 25.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
chile_peru 27 27 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
italy 27 17 63.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
juan_de_fuca_ridge 27 13 48.1% T-24h T-36h T-7d
Tensor-Trained Solar Flare Classifier Phase 65h — real GOES X-ray outcomes

First solar-flare classifier trained on real outcome labels instead of rule-based synthetic data. Inputs: 9,687-dim Earth State Tensor + time-series delta. Target: M-class+ (or M-class+) solar flare in the next 24 hours. Labels come from NOAA SWPC GOES X-ray flux. Replaces the synthetic-trained classifier stuck at 17.1% real hit rate.

0.966
LOOCV AUC (ranking score — 24h labels overlap at */15 cadence and the 7-day GOES label feed cannot be temporally held out; the live-ledger when-issued rate above is the operational metric)
0.044
Brier
274
Samples
188/86
Pos / Neg
Per-Geyser Skill Breakdown (narrow products vs. bulk predictor)

Last 30 days, post-PR#28 cadence-artifact fix (Apr 20). Bulk Old Faithful is now logged as one prediction per predicted eruption (was every ~10 min; the old number was a cadence artifact, not skill). Specific geysers (Daisy, Beehive, Riverside) are scored per-eruption. Small N (n<10) and irregular-cadence research-tier geysers are badged so 100% on n=6 doesn't read the same as 100% on n=60.

Geyser Predictions Matched Hit Rate Quality
Grand
yellowstone_grand 		13 13 100.0% n=13 RESEARCH
Daisy
yellowstone_daisy 		11 11 100.0% n=11 STRONG
Beehive
yellowstone_beehive 		7 7 100.0% n=7 STRONG · SMALL N
Castle
yellowstone_castle 		7 7 100.0% n=7 STRONG · SMALL N
Riverside
yellowstone_riverside 		6 6 100.0% n=6 STRONG · SMALL N
yellowstone_great_fountain 13 11 84.6% n=13 STRONG
Old Faithful (bulk)
yellowstone 		505 410 81.2% n=505 BULK · 1/ERUPTION
Old Faithful Eruption Coverage (reformulated metric)
79.1%
1486 of 1878 distinct Old Faithful eruptions caught across 201.4 operating days (9.3 eruptions/day average per GeyserTimes).
This is the right question: "of all the eruptions we know happened, what fraction did we catch?" The bulk hit rate above answers a different question (per-prediction precision, naturally low because of cadence). Both metrics are honest; this one is the operationally meaningful one.
Tensor-Trained EQ Classifier (real outcome targets, leave-one-out cross-validated)
Global classifier (M6.0+ in 7d)
0.978
LOOCV AUC trained on 8760 earth state tensor snapshots (6089+ / 2671- balanced binary task). Brier 0.040.
First real outcome-trained EQ model (real USGS labels, not synthetic). Retraining weekly as snapshots accumulate at */15 cadence.
Holdout caveat: in a sealed out-of-sample test this model family's score fell to chance (held-out AUC 0.496, hypothesis HYP-9fb3d2fa, adjudicated 2026-07-20) — treat the cross-validated number as a ranking score, not live forecast skill. The live ledger record above is the operational metric.
Per-region classifiers (M4.5+ in 7d)
0.980
Mean LOOCV AUC across 113 trained regional models (16 regions skipped, awaiting more data).
Same holdout caveat applies (HYP-9fb3d2fa: held-out AUC 0.496 = chance). The when-issued ledger rate for this model — 80.1% over n=272 matched predictions — is the number to trust; LOOCV AUC is a ranking score only.
Top regions by AUC: caribbean_lesser_antilles 0.99 andaman_nicobar 0.97 juan_de_fuca_ridge 0.98 new_zealand 0.99 mid_atlantic_ridge 0.98

Trained on the unified Earth State Tensor (9,687 cross-physics features, hourly snapshots). Inputs include real-time gravity, solar wind, electromagnetic, oceanic, particle, fluid, atmospheric, and seismic measurements. Outputs are calibrated probabilities of M6.0+ events, cross-validated leave-one-out. Cross-validation is not a temporal holdout; see the holdout caveats above.

Scientific Skill Metrics (bounds-first matcher + magnitude calibration, April 15 2026)
Earthquake Full-Credit Hit Rate
59.9%
8094 of 13522 EQ forecasts matched an event at or above the expected magnitude threshold within the region bounding box.
+ 12.6% partial match (event occurred but below threshold) = 72.5% any-match rate
Nowcast AUC (14-day window)
0.67
Best ROC AUC: cosmic_ray. Measures whether the risk_score ranks events correctly (0.5 = random, 0.7 = skill, 0.85+ = operational grade).
  • earthquake: 0.55 (no-skill, n=12554)
  • solar_flare: 0.60 (weak, n=271)
  • cosmic_ray: 0.67 (weak, n=26)
  • geyser_eruption: 0.38 (no-skill, n=2972)
ETAS Aftershock Forecaster
51.5%
Reactive M5+ mainshock response via Omori + Gutenberg-Richter physics. 205 of 398 aftershock forecasts confirmed.
No accuracy target claimed: aftershocks are near-certain at low magnitude, so a hit rate here measures coverage, not skill.
Swarm Detector (reactive)
72.8%
Single-link spatial clustering of recent USGS catalog. Identifies active swarms that often precede volcanic eruptions and dike intrusions. 646 of 887 detected swarms confirmed.
Target: >95% real classification skill (reactive, not forecasting)
Dark Matter Modulation Search
15.1σ
Blind annual modulation search on 99 GSN stations, 822 days (0.5-2.0 Hz). Phase: DOY 195 (DAMA expects ~153).
Permutation null p=0.613 (1000 realizations). Hemisphere coherence: consistent with DM signal.

These are skill metrics measured against the new Apr 15 bounds-first matcher. Full-credit means the observed event's magnitude met or exceeded the prediction's expected range. Nowcast AUC measures whether our risk score rankings correlate with observed activity.

Seismic Hit Rate
73.9%
9856 / 13329 predictions
Geyser Hit Rate
53.5%
1941 / 3631 predictions
Other Hit Rate
24.1%
207 / 859 predictions
loading…
Geyser Eruption
1612
confirmed events
B 0.8h / 0.0km
Earthquake
9855
confirmed events
B 103.4h / 766.0km
Geyser
329
confirmed events
B 4.7h / 0.6km
Solar Flare
194
confirmed events
B 3.2h / 0.0km
Tsunami
1
confirmed events
B 1.2h / 78.5km
Cosmic Ray
7
confirmed events
B 46.4h / 1436.5km
Ionospheric Tec
1
confirmed events
B 0.0h / 0.0km
Kp Forecast
1
confirmed events
B 5.6h / 0.0km
Wildfire
3
confirmed events
A 9.4h / 19.0km
Ionospheric
1
confirmed events
A 93.2h / 0.0km
Grading Methodology

Each confirmed prediction is graded A-F based on distance accuracy (60%) and lead time (40%). All confirmations are matched against authoritative sources (USGS, EMSC/GFZ, IRIS, GeyserTimes).

A
<100 km, 24h+
B
<300 km, 6h+
C
<500 km, 1h+
D
<1000 km
F
>1000 km

Data provenance: all observations verified against USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC/GFZ), NOAA SWPC, and GeyserTimes citizen science data. SHA-256 hash chain ensures predictions are tamper-proof and were logged before the confirming event occurred.

Map of confirmed catches — each pin is a real earthquake we forecast. Click one to find it in the table below. Showing the latest 200 of 12004 catches.
Confirmed Predictions (12004) showing latest 200 of 12004 — full data via CSV export
Date Hazard Region Risk Event Grade Lead Dist Proof Replay
2026-10-13 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 12.2 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-13 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 52.3 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-13 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Central + North Atlantic) 77.3% M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge F 0.1d early 1368km verify Replay
2026-10-13 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 72.1 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-13 Earthquake Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles) 50.8% M3.1 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC D 0.0d early 473km verify Replay
2026-10-13 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.2 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-13 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M6.1 7.7 -81.5 74.6% M4.92 Panama A 0.3d early 4km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 80.4% M2.7 SICILY, ITALY C 0.2d early 362km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido) 76.4% M4.1 81 km NE of Esashi, Japan D 0.2d early 934km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central 85.0% M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge D 0.4d early 1471km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Indonesia - Banda/W Papua 70.2% M4.1 274 km WSW of Tual, Indonesia D 0.2d early 310km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido) 70.1% M4.1 81 km NE of Esashi, Japan D 0.2d early 417km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 0.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Yellowstone Daisy 85.0% Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 94 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 13.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Solar Flare Global 70.6% M4.0 Solar flare C1.0 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.4 38 km NE of Chilecito, Argentina D 0.5d early 537km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama) 66.2% M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama B 0.3d early 181km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 18.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo) 46.9% M3.35 15 km NNE of Miches, Dominican Republic C 0.2d early 241km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 80.4% M3.8 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR B 0.2d early 34km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 85.0% M4.58 Sumbawa Region, Indonesia D 0.8d early 801km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Alaska-Aleutian Arc 85.0% M2.5 57 km SE of Ugashik, Alaska B 0.3d early 184km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 85.0% M5.06 Kuril Islands D 0.2d early 328km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 66.0% M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO D 0.1d early 305km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 85.0% M4.5 PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION D 0.0d early 548km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Philippines 85.0% M4.81 Philippine Islands Region D 0.8d early 767km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (shallow volcanic, <15 km) 47.2% M3.27 12 km SSE of Fern Forest, Hawaii A 0.6d early 43km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing) 47.2% M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands C 0.2d early 180km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Equatorial 57.7% M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge C 0.9d early 659km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Colombia-Ecuador Subduction 53.2% M4.2 PANAMA D 0.0d early 550km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 77.7% M3.0 ROMANIA C 0.3d early 498km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 83.8% M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO C 0.2d early 195km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec 51.5% M4.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO C 0.1d early 128km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Colombia-Ecuador Subduction 83.8% M4.51 South of Panama C 1.0d early 577km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Central America Se (Costa Rica-Panama) 83.8% M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama B 0.7d early 181km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Solar Flare Global 70.6% Solar flare B9.3 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 18.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Earthquake Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles) 58.7% M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC D 0.1d early 468km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 90.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-12 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.5 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc 58.7% M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region C 0.1d early 205km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 71.3% M5.75 Tonga Islands B 0.3d early 152km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 71.3% M2.7 SICILY, ITALY C 1.2d early 362km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra 71.3% M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA D 0.0d early 335km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 58.7% M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India C 0.2d early 254km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Tibetan Plateau / Pamir 72.0% M4.0 EASTERN XIZANG C 0.5d early 727km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Off Costa Rica / Panama (Cocos) 73.9% M4.4 SOUTH OF PANAMA D 0.2d early 320km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake New Zealand - North (Hikurangi) 82.7% M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand C 0.5d early 353km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 6.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 67.7% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 283 min) B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 101.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab) 58.7% M4.8 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU C 0.7d early 440km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Solar Flare Global 70.6% M4.0 Solar flare C1.1 class B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 2.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush) 71.3% M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN D 0.5d early 520km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 83.8% M3.8 ATACAMA, CHILE D 0.2d early 303km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama) 58.7% M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama B 1.3d early 181km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 102.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 77.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone 58.7% M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands B 0.7d early 265km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 91.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction) 71.3% M4.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS C 0.8d early 643km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Mariana Trench 71.3% M4.4 Volcano Islands, Japan region D 0.2d early 528km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Caribbean - Lesser Antilles 71.3% M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islan D 0.2d early 529km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 71.3% M4.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA B 0.2d early 118km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 66.3 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 83.8% M4.53 El Salvador C 0.5d early 569km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 71.3% M5.29 Kuril Islands B 0.3d early 198km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 58.7% M4.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO D 0.2d early 668km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Philippines 85.0% M4.81 Philippine Islands Region C 1.9d early 767km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca 85.0% M5.68 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi B 0.5d early 169km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 102.4 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 85.0% M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi C 0.5d early 546km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Colombia-Ecuador Subduction 63.4% M4.51 South of Panama C 1.9d early 577km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 78.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Cascadia Subduction Zone 45.5% M3.41 32 km W of Petrolia, CA C 1.2d early 454km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Solar Flare Global 70.6% M4.0 Solar flare C1.1 class B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 91.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 84.4% M3.4 ROMANIA C 0.5d early 498km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central 84.2% M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge C 2.1d early 1471km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Indonesia - Banda/W Papua 73.4% M4.64 Seram, Indonesia B 0.6d early 256km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 81.6% M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO B 1.4d early 195km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 12.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Tien Shan / Northwest China + Western Tien Shan (S. Kazakhstan) 85.0% M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN C 1.0d early 675km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Yellowstone Daisy 85.0% Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 615 min) A 0.4d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 85.0% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 133 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 70.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench) 45.5% M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands B 0.7d early 67km verify Replay
2026-10-11 Earthquake Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles) 63.7% M2.9 HAITI REGION C 0.3d early 450km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc 63.1% M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region B 1.1d early 205km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 47.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 58.1% M4.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE C 0.1d early 273km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing) 45.1% M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands B 1.8d early 180km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 77.4% M5.75 Tonga Islands B 1.3d early 152km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake New Zealand 85.0% M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand B 1.5d early 288km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Luzon Strait / S Taiwan (Batanes) 85.0% M4.81 Philippine Islands Region B 2.4d early 117km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Equatorial 71.5% M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge C 2.4d early 659km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo) 74.6% M2.9 HAITI REGION C 0.5d early 234km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Caribbean - Greater Antilles 85.0% M2.9 HAITI REGION D 0.5d early 635km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake 14 Km W Of Río Grande, Panama 85.0% M6.03 Panama A 2.1d early 1km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake 7 Km N Of La Tronosa, Panama 85.0% M4.3 6 km NNW of El Cortezo, Panama A 1.6d early 6km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 45.3% M2.8 NORTHERN ITALY C 0.7d early 475km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 54.9% M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India B 1.2d early 254km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Oklahoma (Induced) 45.4% M2.46 7 km N of Alex, Oklahoma A 1.4d early 86km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 85.0% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 631 min) A 0.4d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands 77.4% M6.16 Solomon Islands C 0.8d early 628km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra 77.4% M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA C 1.1d early 335km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec 85.0% M4.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO D 0.1d early 333km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 83.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab) 61.9% M5.23 Near Coast of Peru B 0.9d early 197km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 87.8 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 77.9% M3.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE C 0.3d early 463km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama) 63.7% M4.3 PANAMA C 0.0d early 171km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.4 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.8 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Alaska-Aleutian Arc 85.0% M2.5 57 km SE of Ugashik, Alaska B 2.1d early 184km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush) 77.4% M4.2 26 km SE of Jurm, Afghanistan B 0.7d early 192km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 89.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone 63.7% M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands B 1.7d early 265km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Tibetan Plateau / Pamir 85.0% M4.2 UTTARANCHAL, INDIA D 0.1d early 714km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction) 77.4% M4.9 Kermadec Islands region B 0.4d early 163km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Mariana Trench 77.4% M4.2 Mariana Islands region C 0.8d early 498km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 74.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter) 77.4% M4.7 110 km SSE of Sola, Vanuatu C 0.8d early 418km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 77.4% M4.53 El Salvador C 1.5d early 569km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Caribbean - Lesser Antilles 77.4% M4.0 TRINIDAD REGION, TRINIDAD-TOBAGO D 0.1d early 488km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 77.4% M4.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA B 1.3d early 118km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 85.0% M5.29 Kuril Islands B 1.3d early 198km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 63.7% M3.9 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO D 0.4d early 742km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca 70.0% M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi B 1.5d early 166km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Philippines 45.8% M4.81 Philippine Islands Region C 2.9d early 767km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey 68.6% M4.0 CRETE, GREECE C 0.6d early 353km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - South 64.4% M4.6 southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge D 0.4d early 888km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Central + North Atlantic) 85.0% M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge C 2.9d early 1368km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 70.0% M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi C 1.6d early 546km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake New Zealand - North (Hikurangi) 70.0% M4.2 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. B 0.7d early 182km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 115.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido) 65.2% M4.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN C 1.4d early 359km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Colombia-Ecuador Subduction 61.0% M4.2 16 km SSE of Los Asientos, Panama D 0.1d early 570km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 9.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 94.5 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M6.0 7.5 -80.6 78.0% M4.3 6 km NNW of El Cortezo, Panama A 2.3d early 6km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.4 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Tien Shan / Northwest China + Western Tien Shan (S. Kazakhstan) 85.0% M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN C 2.0d early 675km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 49.6% M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO B 2.4d early 195km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km) 45.0% M3.27 12 km SSE of Fern Forest, Hawaii A 2.9d early 43km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 99.5 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-10 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=20.6, z=5.4) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Off Costa Rica / Panama (Cocos) 45.8% M4.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA D 0.2d early 344km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=5.9) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc 85.0% M6.16 Solomon Islands C 1.7d early 673km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=6.1) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M6.6 7.7 -81.5 82.8% M6.03 Panama A 3.1d early 1km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 70.0% M3.4 ROMANIA C 1.8d early 498km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Turkey (Anatolian Plate) 70.0% M3.7 EASTERN TURKEY C 0.5d early 301km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central 70.0% M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge C 3.4d early 1471km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 49.6% M3.3 SICILY, ITALY C 0.4d early 425km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Iceland (Mid-Atlantic Ridge) 50.0% M3.5 ICELAND B 0.6d early 127km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo) 50.0% M3.35 15 km NNE of Miches, Dominican Republic B 2.8d early 241km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Caribbean - Greater Antilles 50.0% M2.9 HAITI REGION C 1.5d early 635km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 55.3% M5.75 Tonga Islands B 2.4d early 152km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=6.2) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 70.0% M4.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE B 1.1d early 273km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc 70.0% M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region B 2.2d early 205km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 70.0% M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India B 2.2d early 254km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Luzon Strait / S Taiwan (Batanes) 70.0% M4.81 Philippine Islands Region A 3.4d early 117km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido) 85.0% M4.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION B 2.3d early 207km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing) 50.0% M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands B 2.8d early 180km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M5.5 7.6 -80.3 74.0% M4.5 5 km N of Oria Arriba, Panama B 0.0d early 9km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M5.8 7.4 -80.4 76.4% M4.7 2 km WNW of El Cacao, Panama A 0.9d early 4km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake New Zealand 85.0% M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand B 2.5d early 288km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Equatorial 76.5% M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge C 3.4d early 659km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Tsunami 12 Km Wsw Of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama 85.0% M6.6 generating eq - 14 km W of Río Grande, Panama B 0.0d early 78km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake 12 Km Wsw Of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama 85.0% M4.4 3 km NW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama A 1.3d early 13km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake 1 Km S Of El Cacao, Panama 85.0% M4.7 2 km WNW of El Cacao, Panama A 0.9d early 4km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Walker Lane / Western Nevada 49.9% M2.62 25 km SW of Mina, Nevada B 1.5d early 125km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra 50.0% M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA B 2.1d early 335km verify Replay
2026-10-09 Earthquake Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench) 50.0% M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands A 1.9d early 67km verify Replay
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-13
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 12.2 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 12.2 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-13
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 52.3 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 52.3 min)
Earthquake F
2026-10-13
M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Central + North Atlantic)
caught 0.1 days early
77% risk 1368km away verify
Confirmed: M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-13
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 72.1 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 72.1 min)
Earthquake D
2026-10-13
M3.1 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
region: Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles)
caught 0.0 days early
51% risk 473km away verify
Confirmed: M3.1 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-13
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.2 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.2 min)
Earthquake A
2026-10-13
M4.92 Panama
region: Aftershock Zone M6.1 7.7 -81.5
caught 0.3 days early
75% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M4.92 Panama
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M2.7 SICILY, ITALY
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 0.2 days early
80% risk 362km away verify
Confirmed: M2.7 SICILY, ITALY
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.1 81 km NE of Esashi, Japan
region: Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido)
caught 0.2 days early
76% risk 934km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 81 km NE of Esashi, Japan
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 1471km away verify
Confirmed: M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.1 274 km WSW of Tual, Indonesia
region: Indonesia - Banda/W Papua
caught 0.2 days early
70% risk 310km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 274 km WSW of Tual, Indonesia
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.1 81 km NE of Esashi, Japan
region: NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido)
caught 0.2 days early
70% risk 417km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 81 km NE of Esashi, Japan
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 0.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 0.8 min)
Geyser B
2026-10-12
Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 94 min)
region: Yellowstone Daisy
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 94 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 13.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 13.8 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-10-12
M4.0 Solar flare C1.0 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
71% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C1.0 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.8 min)
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.4 38 km NE of Chilecito, Argentina
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 537km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 38 km NE of Chilecito, Argentina
Earthquake B
2026-10-12
M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama
region: Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama)
caught 0.3 days early
66% risk 181km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 18.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 18.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M3.35 15 km NNE of Miches, Dominican Republic
region: Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo)
caught 0.2 days early
47% risk 241km away verify
Confirmed: M3.35 15 km NNE of Miches, Dominican Republic
Earthquake B
2026-10-12
M3.8 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 0.2 days early
80% risk 34km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.7 min)
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.58 Sumbawa Region, Indonesia
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 801km away verify
Confirmed: M4.58 Sumbawa Region, Indonesia
Earthquake B
2026-10-12
M2.5 57 km SE of Ugashik, Alaska
region: Alaska-Aleutian Arc
caught 0.3 days early
85% risk 184km away verify
Confirmed: M2.5 57 km SE of Ugashik, Alaska
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M5.06 Kuril Islands
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 328km away verify
Confirmed: M5.06 Kuril Islands
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 0.1 days early
66% risk 305km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.5 PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 548km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
region: Philippines
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 767km away verify
Confirmed: M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
Earthquake A
2026-10-12
M3.27 12 km SSE of Fern Forest, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (shallow volcanic, <15 km)
caught 0.6 days early
47% risk 43km away verify
Confirmed: M3.27 12 km SSE of Fern Forest, Hawaii
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands
region: Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing)
caught 0.2 days early
47% risk 180km away verify
Confirmed: M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Equatorial
caught 0.9 days early
58% risk 659km away verify
Confirmed: M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M4.2 PANAMA
region: Colombia-Ecuador Subduction
caught 0.0 days early
53% risk 550km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 PANAMA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M3.0 ROMANIA
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 0.3 days early
78% risk 498km away verify
Confirmed: M3.0 ROMANIA
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 0.2 days early
84% risk 195km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M4.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec
caught 0.1 days early
51% risk 128km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 28.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-12
M4.51 South of Panama
region: Colombia-Ecuador Subduction
caught 1.0 days early
84% risk 577km away verify
Confirmed: M4.51 South of Panama
Earthquake B
2026-10-12
M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama
region: Central America Se (Costa Rica-Panama)
caught 0.7 days early
84% risk 181km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama
Solar Flare B
2026-10-12
Solar flare B9.3 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
71% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Solar flare B9.3 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 18.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 18.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 88.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.8 min)
Earthquake D
2026-10-12
M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
region: Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles)
caught 0.1 days early
59% risk 468km away verify
Confirmed: M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 90.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 90.8 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-12
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.5 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.5 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region
region: Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc
caught 0.1 days early
59% risk 205km away verify
Confirmed: M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M5.75 Tonga Islands
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 0.3 days early
71% risk 152km away verify
Confirmed: M5.75 Tonga Islands
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 96.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M2.7 SICILY, ITALY
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 1.2 days early
71% risk 362km away verify
Confirmed: M2.7 SICILY, ITALY
Earthquake D
2026-10-11
M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
region: Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra
caught 0.0 days early
71% risk 335km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 0.2 days early
59% risk 254km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.0 EASTERN XIZANG
region: Tibetan Plateau / Pamir
caught 0.5 days early
72% risk 727km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 EASTERN XIZANG
Earthquake D
2026-10-11
M4.4 SOUTH OF PANAMA
region: Off Costa Rica / Panama (Cocos)
caught 0.2 days early
74% risk 320km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 SOUTH OF PANAMA
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand
region: New Zealand - North (Hikurangi)
caught 0.5 days early
83% risk 353km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 6.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 6.7 min)
Geyser B
2026-10-11
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 283 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.2 days early
68% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 283 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 101.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 101.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.8 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
region: Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab)
caught 0.7 days early
59% risk 440km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
Solar Flare B
2026-10-11
M4.0 Solar flare C1.1 class
region: Global
caught 0.0 days early
71% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C1.1 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 2.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 2.8 min)
Earthquake D
2026-10-11
M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN
region: Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush)
caught 0.5 days early
71% risk 520km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN
Earthquake D
2026-10-11
M3.8 ATACAMA, CHILE
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.2 days early
84% risk 303km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 ATACAMA, CHILE
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama
region: Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama)
caught 1.3 days early
59% risk 181km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 6 km WSW of Calidonia, Panama
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 102.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 102.8 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 77.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 77.8 min)
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands
region: Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone
caught 0.7 days early
59% risk 265km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 91.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 91.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
region: Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction)
caught 0.8 days early
71% risk 643km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
Earthquake D
2026-10-11
M4.4 Volcano Islands, Japan region
region: Mariana Trench
caught 0.2 days early
71% risk 528km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 Volcano Islands, Japan region
Earthquake D
2026-10-11
M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islan
region: Caribbean - Lesser Antilles
caught 0.2 days early
71% risk 529km away verify
Confirmed: M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islan
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M4.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 0.2 days early
71% risk 118km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 66.3 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 66.3 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.53 El Salvador
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 0.5 days early
84% risk 569km away verify
Confirmed: M4.53 El Salvador
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M5.29 Kuril Islands
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 0.3 days early
71% risk 198km away verify
Confirmed: M5.29 Kuril Islands
Earthquake D
2026-10-11
M4.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 0.2 days early
59% risk 668km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
region: Philippines
caught 1.9 days early
85% risk 767km away verify
Confirmed: M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M5.68 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 169km away verify
Confirmed: M5.68 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 102.4 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 102.4 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 546km away verify
Confirmed: M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.51 South of Panama
region: Colombia-Ecuador Subduction
caught 1.9 days early
63% risk 577km away verify
Confirmed: M4.51 South of Panama
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 78.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 78.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M3.41 32 km W of Petrolia, CA
region: Cascadia Subduction Zone
caught 1.2 days early
46% risk 454km away verify
Confirmed: M3.41 32 km W of Petrolia, CA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 63.7 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-10-11
M4.0 Solar flare C1.1 class
region: Global
caught 0.2 days early
71% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C1.1 class
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 91.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 91.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M3.4 ROMANIA
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 0.5 days early
84% risk 498km away verify
Confirmed: M3.4 ROMANIA
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central
caught 2.1 days early
84% risk 1471km away verify
Confirmed: M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M4.64 Seram, Indonesia
region: Indonesia - Banda/W Papua
caught 0.6 days early
73% risk 256km away verify
Confirmed: M4.64 Seram, Indonesia
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 1.4 days early
82% risk 195km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 12.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 12.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN
region: Tien Shan / Northwest China + Western Tien Shan (S. Kazakhstan)
caught 1.0 days early
85% risk 675km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN
Geyser A
2026-10-11
Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 615 min)
region: Yellowstone Daisy
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 615 min)
Geyser B
2026-10-11
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 133 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 133 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 62.8 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-11
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 70.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 70.8 min)
Earthquake B
2026-10-11
M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench)
caught 0.7 days early
46% risk 67km away verify
Confirmed: M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands
Earthquake C
2026-10-11
M2.9 HAITI REGION
region: Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles)
caught 0.3 days early
64% risk 450km away verify
Confirmed: M2.9 HAITI REGION
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.7 min)
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region
region: Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc
caught 1.1 days early
63% risk 205km away verify
Confirmed: M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 47.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 47.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 0.1 days early
58% risk 273km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands
region: Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing)
caught 1.8 days early
45% risk 180km away verify
Confirmed: M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M5.75 Tonga Islands
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 1.3 days early
77% risk 152km away verify
Confirmed: M5.75 Tonga Islands
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand
region: New Zealand
caught 1.5 days early
85% risk 288km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
region: Luzon Strait / S Taiwan (Batanes)
caught 2.4 days early
85% risk 117km away verify
Confirmed: M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Equatorial
caught 2.4 days early
72% risk 659km away verify
Confirmed: M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M2.9 HAITI REGION
region: Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo)
caught 0.5 days early
75% risk 234km away verify
Confirmed: M2.9 HAITI REGION
Earthquake D
2026-10-10
M2.9 HAITI REGION
region: Caribbean - Greater Antilles
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 635km away verify
Confirmed: M2.9 HAITI REGION
Earthquake A
2026-10-10
M6.03 Panama
region: 14 Km W Of Río Grande, Panama
caught 2.1 days early
85% risk 1km away verify
Confirmed: M6.03 Panama
Earthquake A
2026-10-10
M4.3 6 km NNW of El Cortezo, Panama
region: 7 Km N Of La Tronosa, Panama
caught 1.6 days early
85% risk 6km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 6 km NNW of El Cortezo, Panama
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M2.8 NORTHERN ITALY
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 0.7 days early
45% risk 475km away verify
Confirmed: M2.8 NORTHERN ITALY
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 1.2 days early
55% risk 254km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India
Earthquake A
2026-10-10
M2.46 7 km N of Alex, Oklahoma
region: Oklahoma (Induced)
caught 1.4 days early
45% risk 86km away verify
Confirmed: M2.46 7 km N of Alex, Oklahoma
Geyser A
2026-10-10
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 631 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 631 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M6.16 Solomon Islands
region: Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands
caught 0.8 days early
77% risk 628km away verify
Confirmed: M6.16 Solomon Islands
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
region: Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra
caught 1.1 days early
77% risk 335km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.7 min)
Earthquake D
2026-10-10
M4.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 333km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 83.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 83.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M5.23 Near Coast of Peru
region: Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab)
caught 0.9 days early
62% risk 197km away verify
Confirmed: M5.23 Near Coast of Peru
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 87.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 87.8 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M3.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.3 days early
78% risk 463km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.3 PANAMA
region: Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama)
caught 0.0 days early
64% risk 171km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 PANAMA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.4 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.4 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.8 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 23.8 min)
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M2.5 57 km SE of Ugashik, Alaska
region: Alaska-Aleutian Arc
caught 2.1 days early
85% risk 184km away verify
Confirmed: M2.5 57 km SE of Ugashik, Alaska
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.2 26 km SE of Jurm, Afghanistan
region: Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush)
caught 0.7 days early
77% risk 192km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 26 km SE of Jurm, Afghanistan
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 54.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 89.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 89.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands
region: Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone
caught 1.7 days early
64% risk 265km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands
Earthquake D
2026-10-10
M4.2 UTTARANCHAL, INDIA
region: Tibetan Plateau / Pamir
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 714km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 UTTARANCHAL, INDIA
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.9 Kermadec Islands region
region: Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction)
caught 0.4 days early
77% risk 163km away verify
Confirmed: M4.9 Kermadec Islands region
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.2 Mariana Islands region
region: Mariana Trench
caught 0.8 days early
77% risk 498km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 Mariana Islands region
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 74.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 74.6 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.7 110 km SSE of Sola, Vanuatu
region: Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter)
caught 0.8 days early
77% risk 418km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 110 km SSE of Sola, Vanuatu
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.53 El Salvador
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 1.5 days early
77% risk 569km away verify
Confirmed: M4.53 El Salvador
Earthquake D
2026-10-10
M4.0 TRINIDAD REGION, TRINIDAD-TOBAGO
region: Caribbean - Lesser Antilles
caught 0.1 days early
77% risk 488km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 TRINIDAD REGION, TRINIDAD-TOBAGO
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 1.3 days early
77% risk 118km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M5.29 Kuril Islands
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 1.3 days early
85% risk 198km away verify
Confirmed: M5.29 Kuril Islands
Earthquake D
2026-10-10
M3.9 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 0.4 days early
64% risk 742km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 20.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca
caught 1.5 days early
70% risk 166km away verify
Confirmed: M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
region: Philippines
caught 2.9 days early
46% risk 767km away verify
Confirmed: M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.0 CRETE, GREECE
region: Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
caught 0.6 days early
69% risk 353km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 CRETE, GREECE
Earthquake D
2026-10-10
M4.6 southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - South
caught 0.4 days early
64% risk 888km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Central + North Atlantic)
caught 2.9 days early
85% risk 1368km away verify
Confirmed: M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 1.6 days early
70% risk 546km away verify
Confirmed: M5.51 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.2 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
region: New Zealand - North (Hikurangi)
caught 0.7 days early
70% risk 182km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 115.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 115.6 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
region: Japan (Honshu-Hokkaido)
caught 1.4 days early
65% risk 359km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Earthquake D
2026-10-10
M4.2 16 km SSE of Los Asientos, Panama
region: Colombia-Ecuador Subduction
caught 0.1 days early
61% risk 570km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 16 km SSE of Los Asientos, Panama
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 9.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 9.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 94.5 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 94.5 min)
Earthquake A
2026-10-10
M4.3 6 km NNW of El Cortezo, Panama
region: Aftershock Zone M6.0 7.5 -80.6
caught 2.3 days early
78% risk 6km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 6 km NNW of El Cortezo, Panama
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.4 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 58.4 min)
Earthquake C
2026-10-10
M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN
region: Tien Shan / Northwest China + Western Tien Shan (S. Kazakhstan)
caught 2.0 days early
85% risk 675km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 KYRGYZSTAN
Earthquake B
2026-10-10
M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 2.4 days early
50% risk 195km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 GUERRERO, MEXICO
Earthquake A
2026-10-10
M3.27 12 km SSE of Fern Forest, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km)
caught 2.9 days early
45% risk 43km away verify
Confirmed: M3.27 12 km SSE of Fern Forest, Hawaii
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 99.5 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 99.5 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-10
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=20.6, z=5.4)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=20.6, z=5.4)
Earthquake D
2026-10-09
M4.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
region: Off Costa Rica / Panama (Cocos)
caught 0.2 days early
46% risk 344km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-09
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=5.9)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=5.9)
Earthquake C
2026-10-09
M6.16 Solomon Islands
region: Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc
caught 1.7 days early
85% risk 673km away verify
Confirmed: M6.16 Solomon Islands
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-09
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=6.1)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=6.1)
Earthquake A
2026-10-09
M6.03 Panama
region: Aftershock Zone M6.6 7.7 -81.5
caught 3.1 days early
83% risk 1km away verify
Confirmed: M6.03 Panama
Earthquake C
2026-10-09
M3.4 ROMANIA
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 1.8 days early
70% risk 498km away verify
Confirmed: M3.4 ROMANIA
Earthquake C
2026-10-09
M3.7 EASTERN TURKEY
region: Turkey (Anatolian Plate)
caught 0.5 days early
70% risk 301km away verify
Confirmed: M3.7 EASTERN TURKEY
Earthquake C
2026-10-09
M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Central
caught 3.4 days early
70% risk 1471km away verify
Confirmed: M6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Earthquake C
2026-10-09
M3.3 SICILY, ITALY
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 0.4 days early
50% risk 425km away verify
Confirmed: M3.3 SICILY, ITALY
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M3.5 ICELAND
region: Iceland (Mid-Atlantic Ridge)
caught 0.6 days early
50% risk 127km away verify
Confirmed: M3.5 ICELAND
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M3.35 15 km NNE of Miches, Dominican Republic
region: Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo)
caught 2.8 days early
50% risk 241km away verify
Confirmed: M3.35 15 km NNE of Miches, Dominican Republic
Earthquake C
2026-10-09
M2.9 HAITI REGION
region: Caribbean - Greater Antilles
caught 1.5 days early
50% risk 635km away verify
Confirmed: M2.9 HAITI REGION
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M5.75 Tonga Islands
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 2.4 days early
55% risk 152km away verify
Confirmed: M5.75 Tonga Islands
Geyser Eruption B
2026-10-09
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=6.2)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=21.8, z=6.2)
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M4.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 1.1 days early
70% risk 273km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region
region: Izu-Bonin / Ogasawara Arc
caught 2.2 days early
70% risk 205km away verify
Confirmed: M4.87 Volcano Islands, Japan Region
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 2.2 days early
70% risk 254km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 56 km E of Yairipok, India
Earthquake A
2026-10-09
M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
region: Luzon Strait / S Taiwan (Batanes)
caught 3.4 days early
70% risk 117km away verify
Confirmed: M4.81 Philippine Islands Region
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M4.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
region: NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido)
caught 2.3 days early
85% risk 207km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands
region: Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing)
caught 2.8 days early
50% risk 180km away verify
Confirmed: M4.94 Near Islands, Aleutian Islands
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M4.5 5 km N of Oria Arriba, Panama
region: Aftershock Zone M5.5 7.6 -80.3
caught 0.0 days early
74% risk 9km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 5 km N of Oria Arriba, Panama
Earthquake A
2026-10-09
M4.7 2 km WNW of El Cacao, Panama
region: Aftershock Zone M5.8 7.4 -80.4
caught 0.9 days early
76% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 2 km WNW of El Cacao, Panama
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand
region: New Zealand
caught 2.5 days early
85% risk 288km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 25 km SSE of Pahiatua, New Zealand
Earthquake C
2026-10-09
M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
region: Mid-Atlantic Ridge - Equatorial
caught 3.4 days early
76% risk 659km away verify
Confirmed: M5.44 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge
Tsunami B
2026-10-09
M6.6 generating eq - 14 km W of Río Grande, Panama
region: 12 Km Wsw Of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 78km away verify
Confirmed: M6.6 generating eq - 14 km W of Río Grande, Panama
Earthquake A
2026-10-09
M4.4 3 km NW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama
region: 12 Km Wsw Of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama
caught 1.3 days early
85% risk 13km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 3 km NW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama
Earthquake A
2026-10-09
M4.7 2 km WNW of El Cacao, Panama
region: 1 Km S Of El Cacao, Panama
caught 0.9 days early
85% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M4.7 2 km WNW of El Cacao, Panama
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M2.62 25 km SW of Mina, Nevada
region: Walker Lane / Western Nevada
caught 1.5 days early
50% risk 125km away verify
Confirmed: M2.62 25 km SW of Mina, Nevada
Earthquake B
2026-10-09
M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
region: Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra
caught 2.1 days early
50% risk 335km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Earthquake A
2026-10-09
M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench)
caught 1.9 days early
50% risk 67km away verify
Confirmed: M3.03 66 km NNE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands
Historical Backtest Results

Models backtested against 21 days of historical USGS data.

RegionTPFPFNPrecisionRecallF1
oklahoma 2 26 0 7.1% 100.0% 13.3%
samoa 1 3 0 25.0% 100.0% 40.0%
ucerf3 8 26 0 23.5% 100.0% 38.1%
cascadia 1 27 0 3.6% 100.0% 6.9%
wasatch 1 27 0 3.6% 100.0% 6.9%
new_madrid 0 24 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
central_utah 0 2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
hurricane_fault 0 2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
alaska 0 4 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Verification Methodology

Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed at creation time and added to a tamper-proof hash chain. When a real-world event occurs (confirmed by USGS, NOAA, EMSC, NASA FIRMS, or NWS), the system automatically matches it against pre-existing predictions within 300km and 7 days.

Grading: A (80+ pts) to F (<20 pts) based on distance accuracy (0-50 pts) + prediction lead time (0-50 pts). Grade A requires <50km distance accuracy AND 72+ hours of advance warning.