Prediction Track Record

Cryptographically verified predictions matched against real-world events. Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed before the event occurs.

Last 30 days: every M6.0+ earthquake on Earth

Ground truth: the USGS ComCat catalog — so a miss is a real miss and shows here the day it happens. HIT = the event was preceded by a logged, hash-anchored forecast that later matched it.

MagDate (UTC)LocationLeadProof
HIT M6.3 2026-09-03 84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska 17.3 d 713da8eaa76e8c3f…
HIT M6.2 2026-09-02 South Sandwich Islands region 20.4 d 616662d965d5bfbb…
HIT M6 2026-08-27 145 km N of Caluula, Somalia 20.1 d 9cd4e28210d8d11b…
HIT M6 2026-08-24 211 km NNE of Lospalos, Timor Leste 20.4 d 05c1221d66158b01…
HIT M6 2026-08-23 32 km SSW of Honchō, Japan 20.4 d 3afc918c8a874c29…
HIT M6.2 2026-08-22 Scotia Sea 18.5 d 04efb3e37eb76baf…
HIT M6.7 2026-08-20 37 km NE of Tambo, Peru 20.5 d b99ca59718bac7e3…
HIT M6.1 2026-08-16 55 km NNE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu 20.4 d cb281bb2af36653f…
HIT M6.9 2026-08-15 9 km WNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia 20.5 d aba1d4d8c2306bca…
HIT M6.1 2026-08-14 62 km N of Ende, Indonesia 20.0 d aba1d4d8c2306bca…
HIT M7.8 2026-08-14 64 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia 20.0 d aba1d4d8c2306bca…
HIT M6 2026-08-12 South Sandwich Islands region 20.0 d 1a0de13e6704dfec…
HIT M7.4 2026-08-10 2 km SE of San José del Palmar, Colombia 20.7 d 7e7a12e576459c99…

Coverage: M6.0+ 13/13 · M5.5+ 52/54 · M5.0+ 177/192 (coverage of catalog events by matched forecasts — not a skill claim)

Does this beat chance? The measured answer.

On where to look — not yet. We currently hold 88.1% of the world's seismicity under alarm and catch 87.3% of the earthquakes (350/401, 90 d, M5.0+). Alarming that same fraction of ground at random would catch 88.1%. Area Skill Score 0.4807, where 0.5 is no skill — integrated over the full alarm-threshold trajectory, not a single operating point (the single-point approximation reads 0.4960, which is optimistic). This number cannot be improved by alarming more — widening the alarm drives it toward 0.5 by construction.

On how likely — yes, newly. After per-model recalibration, 4 of 5 models reach positive out-of-sample skill (n-weighted mean of per-model out-of-sample Brier Skill Score +0.0615, where 0 is no better than quoting the base rate), from an expanding-window walk-forward. Recalibration is monotone, so it moves this number and leaves the Area Skill Score untouched — they are different products.

Separately, conditioned on a forecast having been issued: the when-issued full-magnitude rate is 70.6% (n=520, trailing 30 d, expired M4+) against 28.7% for naive USGS-catalog climatology, walk-forward backtest Aug 2026. That is a narrower question than the two above — it says nothing about how much ground we alarmed to get it, which is exactly what the Area Skill Score measures. Reproducible from public catalogs; every forecast hash-anchored before its event.

Where earthquakes cluster — the hazard map.

On where they happen — yes. Our smoothed-seismicity map places 95.6% of real future M5.0+ earthquakes within 50 km of where it flags — a median miss of just 6.6 km (Molchan spatial score 0.978, where 0.5 is no skill), tested out-of-sample on 5018 earthquakes the map was never trained on.

Read this correctly: this is WHERE earthquakes cluster — the field-standard seismic-hazard map — not WHEN one is coming. The 0.978 is spatial localization; it is not a percentage of earthquakes predicted, and picking the day remains at chance (see above). A full forecast is where × when × size — this is the where, done honestly and reproducibly from public catalogs.

Updated 2026-09-08T04:45:25+00:00 · every forecast SHA-256 hashed + Bitcoin-anchored before the event · raw JSON · our numbers, explained

Open Forecast Skill Exchange NOW OPEN

The track record above is ours. The Exchange is the open version: a public, hash-chained, pre-registered scoreboard anyone can enter. Every submitted forecast is SHA-256 hashed and its hash committed to a tamper-evident chain before its window opens; it is then scored against the public earthquake catalog (USGS ComCat) on a fixed monthly cadence. Outcomes are annotated, never rewritten — the same discipline our own ledger runs under.

What makes a score trustworthy here
  • Forecast hash anchored before the window — no hindsight edits.
  • Ground truth is ComCat, re-runnable by anyone with one public API.
  • Magnitude floor M4.5 global (M4.0 inside dense US coverage, which is complete to M3.5 across ~97% of the conterminous US — see the coverage polygon), so a miss is a real miss.
  • Skill is reported with its alarm volume (Area Skill Score), never as a bare hit rate. Coverage is labeled coverage, never skill.
How to take part
  • Open lane at launch: submissions and scores are public.
  • Opt-in only. We never score a named person's public predictions without their submission — you enter your own forecasts, or a baseline we implement from a published method.
  • Register (double opt-in) and submit via the API: /api/v1/exchange/.

Live chain: checking…

Live · our reference baselines (climatology + persistence) are pre-registered for all 14 regions for the current monthly window, scored against ComCat when it closes — the null everyone is invited to beat · live chain (JSON) · status · our numbers, explained

14215
Total Predictions
9309
Confirmed
B
Avg Grade
85.3h
Avg Lead Time
748.1km
Avg Distance
65.5%
Confirmation Rate
Narrow High-Skill Products (tensor-outcome trained + reactive; live-ledger rates below)

These are the subset of predictions produced by classifiers trained on real event outcomes (not synthetic distributions) plus physics-constrained reactive products. Broken out here because they represent the honest upper bound of current forecasting skill.

Narrow Seismic
tensor_eq_per_region • tensor_eq_global • etas_aftershock • swarm_detector
76.7%
Hit Rate
5622
Predictions
4311
Matched
Narrow Solar (Phase 65h)
tensor_solar_flare_classifier — cross-validated, not temporal-holdout; the live-ledger hit rate below is the operational number
89.6%
Hit Rate
183
Predictions
164
Matched
Convergence Gate — multi-physics N≥3 agreement 97% specificity by construction (requires ≥3 channels at |z|≥2) ARMED · AWAITING

Fires only when ≥3 independent physics channels (seismic, electromagnetic, gravity, atmospheric, particle, oceanic, thermal, fluid) each cross a 2σ threshold in the same 15-min tensor snapshot. By construction, the expected false-positive rate at this gate is <3% for uncorrelated channels. This is the highest-precision, lowest-volume product in the ledger.
The gate is running on AX41 (13 * * * * cron); it has not yet produced its first ledger fire. That is expected behaviour at design-threshold: fires are supposed to be rare.

97.0%
Design Precision
—
Measured Hit Rate
0
Total Fires
0
Active
Cascadia + San Andreas Paired-Megafault Watch Goldfinger 2025 paleoseismic prior · 0.2%/yr LOADING…

Tests whether the Cascadia subduction zone AND the southern San Andreas (UCERF3) are both elevated above their typical 7-day rate in the same window. Goldfinger et al. 2025 (Geosphere 21(6):1132) identifies 3 paired Cascadia+SAF events in 1,500 years from sediment-core turbidite analysis -- the 1700 paired M~9 + M~7.5 is the most recent example. The paper deliberately stops at correlation; this card follows the same discipline.

Cascadia Subduction Zone
—
M3+ events / 7d
—
vs expected —
Southern San Andreas (UCERF3)
—
M3+ events / 7d
—
vs expected —
—
Posterior alert probability (next 7d) · paleoseismic prior 3.8e-5
Joint score: — / 100
data age: —

Prior derived from 3 paired co-occurrences in 1,500 yr turbidite stratigraphy (Goldfinger 2025).

0.01/7d hard cap encoded — we cannot claim recurrence stronger than paleoseismic evidence supports.

Industrial Magnitude Cascade Phase 65o — T-7d → T-36h → T-24h per region

Per-region tiered-horizon cascade for industrial shutdown protocols (smelters, chip fabs, rail). Each of the ~54 monitored earthquake regions independently emits up to 3 linked predictions per run — T-7d early warning, T-36h convergence tightening, T-24h industrial alert. Confidence thresholds are 0.60 / 0.75 / 0.85. Every tier carries the M0.5 band (or M0.25 once a region graduates on residual sigma ≤ 0.30 with ≥ 30 matched obs), a 95% CI, and a SHA-256 hash-chain entry.

T-7d
Early warning — conf ≥ 0.60
71.9%
Hit Rate
96
Total
69
Matched
0 active
T-36h
Convergence — conf ≥ 0.75
57.9%
Hit Rate
731
Total
423
Matched
0 active
T-24h
Industrial alert — conf ≥ 0.85
41.3%
Hit Rate
404
Total
167
Matched
0 active
Most-Active Regions (top 10 by cascade volume)
Region Total Matched Hit Rate Tiers Fired
indonesia 37 36 97.3% T-24h T-36h
cascadia 34 29 85.3% T-24h T-36h T-7d
alaska 33 33 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
caribbean_pr 33 32 97.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
tonga 33 32 97.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
japan 31 31 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
iceland 28 7 25.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
chile_peru 27 27 100.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
italy 27 17 63.0% T-24h T-36h T-7d
juan_de_fuca_ridge 27 13 48.1% T-24h T-36h T-7d
Tensor-Trained Solar Flare Classifier Phase 65h — real GOES X-ray outcomes

First solar-flare classifier trained on real outcome labels instead of rule-based synthetic data. Inputs: 9,687-dim Earth State Tensor + time-series delta. Target: M-class+ (or M-class+) solar flare in the next 24 hours. Labels come from NOAA SWPC GOES X-ray flux. Replaces the synthetic-trained classifier stuck at 17.1% real hit rate.

0.957
LOOCV AUC (ranking score — 24h labels overlap at */15 cadence and the 7-day GOES label feed cannot be temporally held out; the live-ledger when-issued rate above is the operational metric)
0.051
Brier
291
Samples
137/154
Pos / Neg
Per-Geyser Skill Breakdown (narrow products vs. bulk predictor)

Last 30 days, post-PR#28 cadence-artifact fix (Apr 20). Bulk Old Faithful is now logged as one prediction per predicted eruption (was every ~10 min; the old number was a cadence artifact, not skill). Specific geysers (Daisy, Beehive, Riverside) are scored per-eruption. Small N (n<10) and irregular-cadence research-tier geysers are badged so 100% on n=6 doesn't read the same as 100% on n=60.

Geyser Predictions Matched Hit Rate Quality
yellowstone_great_fountain 15 15 100.0% n=15 STRONG
Beehive
yellowstone_beehive 		12 12 100.0% n=12 STRONG
Grand
yellowstone_grand 		12 12 100.0% n=12 RESEARCH
Riverside
yellowstone_riverside 		11 11 100.0% n=11 STRONG
Daisy
yellowstone_daisy 		8 8 100.0% n=8 STRONG · SMALL N
yellowstone_fountain 4 4 100.0% n=4 STRONG · SMALL N
Castle
yellowstone_castle 		1 1 100.0% n=1 STRONG · SMALL N
Old Faithful (bulk)
yellowstone 		579 406 70.1% n=579 BULK · 1/ERUPTION
Old Faithful Eruption Coverage (reformulated metric)
73.5%
1060 of 1443 distinct Old Faithful eruptions caught across 166.7 operating days (8.7 eruptions/day average per GeyserTimes).
This is the right question: "of all the eruptions we know happened, what fraction did we catch?" The bulk hit rate above answers a different question (per-prediction precision, naturally low because of cadence). Both metrics are honest; this one is the operationally meaningful one.
Tensor-Trained EQ Classifier (real outcome targets, leave-one-out cross-validated)
Global classifier (M6.0+ in 7d)
0.969
LOOCV AUC trained on 8760 earth state tensor snapshots (5657+ / 3103- balanced binary task). Brier 0.049.
First real outcome-trained EQ model (real USGS labels, not synthetic). Retraining weekly as snapshots accumulate at */15 cadence.
Holdout caveat: in a sealed out-of-sample test this model family's score fell to chance (held-out AUC 0.496, hypothesis HYP-9fb3d2fa, adjudicated 2026-07-20) — treat the cross-validated number as a ranking score, not live forecast skill. The live ledger record above is the operational metric.
Per-region classifiers (M4.5+ in 7d)
0.980
Mean LOOCV AUC across 113 trained regional models (16 regions skipped, awaiting more data).
Same holdout caveat applies (HYP-9fb3d2fa: held-out AUC 0.496 = chance). The when-issued ledger rate for this model — 80.1% over n=272 matched predictions — is the number to trust; LOOCV AUC is a ranking score only.
Top regions by AUC: caribbean_lesser_antilles 0.99 andaman_nicobar 0.97 juan_de_fuca_ridge 0.98 new_zealand 0.99 mid_atlantic_ridge 0.98

Trained on the unified Earth State Tensor (9,687 cross-physics features, hourly snapshots). Inputs include real-time gravity, solar wind, electromagnetic, oceanic, particle, fluid, atmospheric, and seismic measurements. Outputs are calibrated probabilities of M6.0+ events, cross-validated leave-one-out. Cross-validation is not a temporal holdout; see the holdout caveats above.

Scientific Skill Metrics (bounds-first matcher + magnitude calibration, April 15 2026)
Earthquake Full-Credit Hit Rate
56.5%
6161 of 10906 EQ forecasts matched an event at or above the expected magnitude threshold within the region bounding box.
+ 13.6% partial match (event occurred but below threshold) = 70.1% any-match rate
Nowcast AUC (14-day window)
0.69
Best ROC AUC: solar_flare. Measures whether the risk_score ranks events correctly (0.5 = random, 0.7 = skill, 0.85+ = operational grade).
  • earthquake: 0.55 (no-skill, n=9695)
  • solar_flare: 0.69 (weak, n=230)
  • cosmic_ray: 0.67 (weak, n=26)
  • geyser_eruption: 0.38 (no-skill, n=2362)
ETAS Aftershock Forecaster
50.6%
Reactive M5+ mainshock response via Omori + Gutenberg-Richter physics. 180 of 356 aftershock forecasts confirmed.
Target: 70-90% real hit rate (Reasenberg-Jones 1989 baseline)
Swarm Detector (reactive)
73.9%
Single-link spatial clustering of recent USGS catalog. Identifies active swarms that often precede volcanic eruptions and dike intrusions. 528 of 714 detected swarms confirmed.
Target: >95% real classification skill (reactive, not forecasting)
Dark Matter Modulation Search
15.1σ
Blind annual modulation search on 99 GSN stations, 822 days (0.5-2.0 Hz). Phase: DOY 195 (DAMA expects ~153).
Permutation null p=0.613 (1000 realizations). Hemisphere coherence: consistent with DM signal.

These are skill metrics measured against the new Apr 15 bounds-first matcher. Full-credit means the observed event's magnitude met or exceeded the prediction's expected range. Nowcast AUC measures whether our risk score rankings correlate with observed activity.

Seismic Hit Rate
74.1%
7701 / 10389 predictions
Geyser Hit Rate
47.5%
1417 / 2985 predictions
Other Hit Rate
22.7%
191 / 841 predictions
loading…
Geyser Eruption
1148
confirmed events
B 0.8h / 0.1km
Solar Flare
178
confirmed events
B 3.3h / 0.0km
Earthquake
7701
confirmed events
B 102.7h / 902.9km
Geyser
269
confirmed events
B 4.6h / 0.7km
Cosmic Ray
7
confirmed events
B 46.4h / 1436.5km
Ionospheric Tec
1
confirmed events
B 0.0h / 0.0km
Kp Forecast
1
confirmed events
B 5.6h / 0.0km
Wildfire
3
confirmed events
A 9.4h / 19.0km
Ionospheric
1
confirmed events
A 93.2h / 0.0km
Grading Methodology

Each confirmed prediction is graded A-F based on distance accuracy (60%) and lead time (40%). All confirmations are matched against authoritative sources (USGS, EMSC/GFZ, IRIS, GeyserTimes).

A
<100 km, 24h+
B
<300 km, 6h+
C
<500 km, 1h+
D
<1000 km
F
>1000 km

Data provenance: all observations verified against USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC/GFZ), NOAA SWPC, and GeyserTimes citizen science data. SHA-256 hash chain ensures predictions are tamper-proof and were logged before the confirming event occurred.

Map of confirmed catches — each pin is a real earthquake we forecast. Click one to find it in the table below. Showing the latest 200 of 9309 catches.
Confirmed Predictions (9309) showing latest 200 of 9309 — full data via CSV export
Date Hazard Region Risk Event Grade Lead Dist Proof Replay
2026-09-08 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 80.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.1 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 56.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.1 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Solar Flare Global 56.1% M4.0 Solar flare C2.4 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M3.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE D 0.1d early 597km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 85.0% M4.55 Chile-Bolivia Border Region B 0.2d early 68km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise 85.0% M4.97 Samoa Islands C 0.1d early 130km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Swarm 19.3 -155.4 69.7% M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii B 0.1d early 16km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 68.7% M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO D 0.0d early 474km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey 68.7% M4.5 GREECE C 0.0d early 280km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 85.0% M5.2 123 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia D 0.4d early 669km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Red Sea Rift / Yemen / Gulf of Aden 49.1% M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN D 0.1d early 440km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake New Zealand 85.0% M3.3 355 km north of Te Araroa D 0.1d early 904km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 85.0% M3.6 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA C 0.2d early 101km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec 85.0% M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO C 0.2d early 199km verify Replay
2026-09-08 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 85.0% M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga B 0.5d early 169km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Swarm 19.2 -155.4 66.8% M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii A 0.5d early 12km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 52.5 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 85.0% M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka C 0.2d early 298km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 56.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Venezuela (El Pilar-Bocono-San Sebastian) 85.0% M4.72 Venezuela C 0.5d early 256km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama) 84.3% M3.9 PANAMA B 0.8d early 125km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake New Zealand - South (Fiordland/Alpine) 83.2% M3.5 35 km north-east of Milford Sound C 0.0d early 114km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Yellowstone Great Fountain 85.0% Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 28 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Yellowstone Beehive 85.0% Beehive Geyser eruption (lead: 99 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Caribbean - Lesser Antilles 49.1% M3.03 56 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands D 0.3d early 543km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 56.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 99.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 42.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Solar Flare Global 56.1% Solar flare B7.8 class B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile C 0.5d early 422km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 85.0% M4.55 Chile-Bolivia Border Region A 1.2d early 68km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise 85.0% M4.97 Samoa Islands B 1.1d early 130km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake SW Japan (Kyushu-W Honshu / Nankai) 50.0% M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN C 0.3d early 346km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 84.8% M4.0 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO D 0.1d early 675km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Iran (Zagros-Alborz) 75.5% M4.26 Iran-Iraq Border Region D 0.1d early 807km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey 85.0% M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece B 0.8d early 247km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 85.0% M1.6 Costa Siciliana nord-orientale (Messina) A 1.2d early 80km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake South Sandwich Islands 85.0% M5.34 South Sandwich Islands Region B 1.0d early 233km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter) 70.0% M5.28 Vanuatu Islands B 0.8d early 205km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 70.0% M4.1 INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REGION C 1.0d early 564km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 79.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Earthquake Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca 85.0% M3.8 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA C 0.0d early 238km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-07 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 39.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 89.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 85.0% M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga B 1.5d early 169km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Caucasus (Georgia + Greater Caucasus) 50.0% M4.2 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO) B 1.3d early 102km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 8.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Swarm 19.2 -155.4 54.0% M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii A 1.5d early 7km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench) 70.0% M3.02 38 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands A 0.6d early 21km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 85.0% M5.2 123 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia C 1.8d early 669km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 70.0% M3.6 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA C 0.2d early 270km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 85.0% M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka B 1.2d early 298km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Turkey (Anatolian Plate) 50.0% M4.15 Georgia-Armenia-Türkiye Border Region C 1.3d early 735km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 56.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=8.0, z=2.8) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 56.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=7.7, z=2.6) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Yellowstone Riverside 78.4% Riverside Geyser eruption (lead: 126 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 85.0% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 293 min) B 0.2d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Venezuela (El Pilar-Bocono-San Sebastian) 70.0% M4.72 Venezuela B 1.5d early 256km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles) 70.0% M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC C 0.4d early 484km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Caribbean - Lesser Antilles 70.0% M3.02 38 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands C 0.7d early 536km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone 85.0% M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands C 0.4d early 255km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Alaska-Aleutian Arc 85.0% M2.7 32 km S of Akhiok, Alaska C 1.4d early 353km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Philippines 85.0% M4.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES D 0.7d early 842km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Cascadia Subduction Zone 50.0% M2.6 134 km W of Dunes City, Oregon B 0.4d early 109km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Indonesia - Banda/W Papua 85.0% M4.2 BANDA SEA D 0.1d early 428km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.4 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Swarm 19.1 -155.4 60.0% M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii A 1.7d early 8km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 116.4 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.3 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Taiwan 50.0% M4.8 TAIWAN REGION C 0.1d early 118km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.4 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Mongolia (Altai-Khangai-Sayan) 50.0% M4.3 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION C 1.3d early 718km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush) 85.0% M4.0 81 km NNW of Pārūn, Afghanistan B 0.6d early 121km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Southern California (UCERF3) 50.0% M2.8 16 km WSW of Johannesburg, CA A 2.1d early 85km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing) 50.0% M3.9 260 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska B 0.6d early 176km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km) 50.0% M2.53 3 km SSW of Volcano, Hawaii A 1.3d early 26km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Solar Flare Global 56.1% M4.0 Solar flare C5.0 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Colombia-Ecuador Subduction 70.0% M3.6 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR C 0.2d early 262km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile C 1.5d early 422km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 45.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 85.0% M4.8 33 km NE of Calama, Chile B 0.1d early 40km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama) 70.0% M3.9 PANAMA B 2.3d early 125km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake New Zealand - North (Hikurangi) 70.0% M4.0 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND D 0.0d early 376km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Alpine Fault (South Island NZ) 70.0% M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound B 0.9d early 57km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake China (Sichuan-Yunnan) 70.0% M4.55 Yunnan, China B 1.4d early 170km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise 70.0% M4.97 Samoa Islands B 2.2d early 130km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake New Zealand - South (Fiordland/Alpine) 70.0% M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound B 0.9d early 115km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 70.0% M3.7 OFFSHORE MICHOACAN, MEXICO C 0.1d early 154km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 50.0% M3.1 ROMANIA C 0.6d early 438km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake SW Japan (Kyushu-W Honshu / Nankai) 70.0% M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN C 1.3d early 346km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake South Sandwich Islands 85.0% M5.34 South Sandwich Islands Region B 2.0d early 233km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab) 70.0% M4.2 65 km S of Camaná, Peru C 0.1d early 247km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 100.0% M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi D 0.0d early 628km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation) 85.0% M3.9 MYANMAR B 0.7d early 156km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Nepal-Himalaya 80.7% M4.1 NEPAL C 0.4d early 205km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Italy (Apennines-Sicily) 85.0% M1.6 Costa Siciliana nord-orientale (Messina) A 2.3d early 79km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake 96 Km Ese Of Isangel, Vanuatu 70.9% M5.1 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu A 1.8d early 4km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction) 85.0% M4.6 Kermadec Islands region C 0.0d early 227km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter) 85.0% M5.28 Vanuatu Islands B 1.9d early 205km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 47.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Yellowstone Great Fountain 81.6% Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 1154 min) A 0.8d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Yellowstone Riverside 64.2% Riverside Geyser eruption (lead: 617 min) A 0.4d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Yellowstone Daisy 85.0% Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 634 min) A 0.4d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 85.0% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 448 min) A 0.3d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Earthquake Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca 85.0% M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi C 0.2d early 197km verify Replay
2026-09-06 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 85.0% M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga B 2.5d early 169km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec 85.0% M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO C 0.0d early 185km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Red Sea Rift / Yemen / Gulf of Aden 70.0% M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN B 2.3d early 440km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Juan de Fuca Ridge 70.0% M4.93 Off Coast of Oregon B 1.2d early 231km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Solar Flare Global 52.2% Solar flare B8.4 class A 0.3d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 85.0% M4.3 155 km SSW of Acajutla, El Salvador D 0.3d early 643km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey 70.0% M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece B 2.3d early 247km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 50.0% M3.8 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA B 0.1d early 83km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=7.1, z=2.6) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands 85.0% M4.63 Solomon Islands C 0.5d early 498km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake New Zealand 70.0% M3.1 20 km south of Whakatane C 0.5d early 464km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Aftershock Zone M5.6 -19.8 170.2 74.8% M5.1 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu A 2.3d early 4km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 30.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 75.7 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Swarm 19.1 -155.4 65.0% M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii A 2.7d early 8km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 8.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 78.3% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 13.0 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 73.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Mongolia (Altai-Khangai-Sayan) 70.0% M4.3 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION C 2.3d early 718km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Kuril-Kamchatka Arc 85.0% M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka B 2.6d early 298km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Swarm 69.4 -143.7 50.0% M2.8 76 km S of Kaktovik, Alaska A 2.6d early 8km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Swarm 18.0 -66.9 53.0% M3.18 7 km WNW of Maricao, Puerto Rico A 1.9d early 25km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush) 85.0% M4.0 81 km NNW of Pārūn, Afghanistan B 1.6d early 121km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca) 70.0% M4.81 Near Coast of Guerrero, Mexico A 1.4d early 37km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 70.0% M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi C 0.9d early 628km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Indonesia - Banda/W Papua 70.0% M4.39 Banda Sea C 1.3d early 559km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido) 70.0% M4.96 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan B 0.8d early 134km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Swarm -8.2 120.7 50.0% M5.25 Flores Region, Indonesia A 2.8d early 4km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Swarm 18.1 -66.9 50.0% M3.18 7 km WNW of Maricao, Puerto Rico A 1.9d early 25km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 106.6 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc 85.0% M5.55 Solomon Islands B 0.8d early 270km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Chile/Peru Subduction Zone 85.0% M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile B 2.5d early 422km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Solar Flare Global 52.2% M4.0 Solar flare C6.4 class B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Colombia-Ecuador Subduction 67.5% M4.4 21 km SW of Sipí, Colombia B 2.7d early 294km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra 81.9% M4.5 87 km NNW of Sinabang, Indonesia D 0.0d early 495km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta) 85.0% M4.8 33 km NE of Calama, Chile A 1.1d early 40km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Komandorski Islands (W Aleutian) 48.2% M4.0 KAGSR C 0.2d early 186km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo) 48.2% M2.7 HAITI REGION C 0.3d early 234km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama) 67.5% M3.9 PANAMA A 3.3d early 125km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake New Zealand - North (Hikurangi) 67.5% M3.9 12 km NNE of Rahotu, New Zealand C 0.4d early 269km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake New Zealand - South (Fiordland/Alpine) 48.2% M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound B 1.9d early 115km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap 48.2% M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO B 0.4d early 109km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Alpine Fault (South Island NZ) 79.7% M3.3 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND B 1.3d early 246km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Sumatra (Mentawai Gap) 76.9% M5.2 77 km SSW of Sibolga, Indonesia C 0.3d early 321km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake China (Sichuan-Yunnan) 73.3% M4.55 Yunnan, China B 2.4d early 170km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea) 85.0% M3.9 ROMANIA C 0.8d early 508km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Iran (Zagros-Alborz) 71.9% M4.26 Iran-Iraq Border Region C 2.1d early 807km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise 85.0% M4.97 Samoa Islands A 3.2d early 130km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Turkey (Anatolian Plate) 76.4% M4.15 Georgia-Armenia-Türkiye Border Region C 2.9d early 735km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Indonesia - Java/Sunda 70.6% M4.4 124 km S of Dampit, Indonesia C 1.8d early 303km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake SW Japan (Kyushu-W Honshu / Nankai) 67.5% M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN B 2.3d early 346km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab) 67.5% M4.2 65 km S of Camaná, Peru B 1.1d early 247km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Tien Shan / Northwest China + Western Tien Shan (S. Kazakhstan) 85.0% M3.7 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA C 0.8d early 385km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Indonesia (Sunda Arc) 96.4% M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi C 1.0d early 628km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 15.4 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction) 85.0% M4.6 Kermadec Islands region B 1.0d early 227km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter) 81.9% M4.69 Vanuatu Islands B 0.8d early 110km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Earthquake Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca 81.9% M4.44 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi C 0.2d early 179km verify Replay
2026-09-05 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.6 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Geyser Yellowstone Grand 63.4% Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 160 min) B 0.1d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 19.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 34.7 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone 85.0% M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga A 3.6d early 169km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Caucasus (Georgia + Greater Caucasus) 48.2% M4.2 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO) A 3.3d early 102km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Caribbean - Lesser Antilles 48.2% M3.41 38 km NE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands C 1.2d early 496km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Swarm 51.2 -178.4 51.1% M3.6 163 km SW of Adak, Alaska A 2.1d early 25km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec 85.0% M4.99 Near Coast of Chiapas, Mexico B 1.2d early 267km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 34.5 min) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Red Sea Rift / Yemen / Gulf of Aden 48.2% M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN B 3.3d early 440km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Solar Flare Global 52.2% M4.0 Solar flare C1.2 class B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Juan de Fuca Ridge 48.2% M4.93 Off Coast of Oregon B 2.2d early 231km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Central America (Guatemala-Panama) 85.0% M4.2 35 km S of Acajutla, El Salvador D 0.0d early 585km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey 67.5% M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece B 3.3d early 247km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua) 81.9% M4.2 35 km S of Acajutla, El Salvador C 0.0d early 169km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Earthquake Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands 85.0% M6.0 New Ireland Region, Papua New Guinea C 0.8d early 438km verify Replay
2026-09-04 Geyser Eruption Yellowstone 55.0% old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=6.6, z=2.5) B 0.0d early 0km verify Replay
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-08
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 80.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 80.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-08
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.1 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.1 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-08
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.1 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.1 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-08
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 67.6 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-09-08
M4.0 Solar flare C2.4 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C2.4 class
Earthquake D
2026-09-08
M3.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 597km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
Earthquake B
2026-09-08
M4.55 Chile-Bolivia Border Region
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 68km away verify
Confirmed: M4.55 Chile-Bolivia Border Region
Earthquake C
2026-09-08
M4.97 Samoa Islands
region: Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 130km away verify
Confirmed: M4.97 Samoa Islands
Earthquake B
2026-09-08
M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Swarm 19.3 -155.4
caught 0.1 days early
70% risk 16km away verify
Confirmed: M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
Earthquake D
2026-09-08
M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 0.0 days early
69% risk 474km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
Earthquake C
2026-09-08
M4.5 GREECE
region: Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
caught 0.0 days early
69% risk 280km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 GREECE
Earthquake D
2026-09-08
M5.2 123 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 669km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 123 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Earthquake D
2026-09-08
M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
region: Red Sea Rift / Yemen / Gulf of Aden
caught 0.1 days early
49% risk 440km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
Earthquake D
2026-09-08
M3.3 355 km north of Te Araroa
region: New Zealand
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 904km away verify
Confirmed: M3.3 355 km north of Te Araroa
Earthquake C
2026-09-08
M3.6 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 101km away verify
Confirmed: M3.6 NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA
Earthquake C
2026-09-08
M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 199km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-08
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 17.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 48.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-07
M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 169km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
Earthquake A
2026-09-07
M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Swarm 19.2 -155.4
caught 0.5 days early
67% risk 12km away verify
Confirmed: M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 52.5 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 52.5 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-07
M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 298km away verify
Confirmed: M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.6 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-07
M4.72 Venezuela
region: Venezuela (El Pilar-Bocono-San Sebastian)
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 256km away verify
Confirmed: M4.72 Venezuela
Earthquake B
2026-09-07
M3.9 PANAMA
region: Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama)
caught 0.8 days early
84% risk 125km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 PANAMA
Earthquake C
2026-09-07
M3.5 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
region: New Zealand - South (Fiordland/Alpine)
caught 0.0 days early
83% risk 114km away verify
Confirmed: M3.5 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
Geyser B
2026-09-07
Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 28 min)
region: Yellowstone Great Fountain
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 28 min)
Geyser B
2026-09-07
Beehive Geyser eruption (lead: 99 min)
region: Yellowstone Beehive
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Beehive Geyser eruption (lead: 99 min)
Earthquake D
2026-09-07
M3.03 56 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Caribbean - Lesser Antilles
caught 0.3 days early
49% risk 543km away verify
Confirmed: M3.03 56 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 99.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 99.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 42.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 42.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 1.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 36.6 min)
Solar Flare B
2026-09-07
Solar flare B7.8 class
region: Global
caught 0.2 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Solar flare B7.8 class
Earthquake C
2026-09-07
M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 422km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile
Earthquake A
2026-09-07
M4.55 Chile-Bolivia Border Region
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 1.2 days early
85% risk 68km away verify
Confirmed: M4.55 Chile-Bolivia Border Region
Earthquake B
2026-09-07
M4.97 Samoa Islands
region: Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise
caught 1.1 days early
85% risk 130km away verify
Confirmed: M4.97 Samoa Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-07
M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN
region: SW Japan (Kyushu-W Honshu / Nankai)
caught 0.3 days early
50% risk 346km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN
Earthquake D
2026-09-07
M4.0 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 675km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO
Earthquake D
2026-09-07
M4.26 Iran-Iraq Border Region
region: Iran (Zagros-Alborz)
caught 0.1 days early
76% risk 807km away verify
Confirmed: M4.26 Iran-Iraq Border Region
Earthquake B
2026-09-07
M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece
region: Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 247km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece
Earthquake A
2026-09-07
M1.6 Costa Siciliana nord-orientale (Messina)
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 1.2 days early
85% risk 80km away verify
Confirmed: M1.6 Costa Siciliana nord-orientale (Messina)
Earthquake B
2026-09-07
M5.34 South Sandwich Islands Region
region: South Sandwich Islands
caught 1.0 days early
85% risk 233km away verify
Confirmed: M5.34 South Sandwich Islands Region
Earthquake B
2026-09-07
M5.28 Vanuatu Islands
region: Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter)
caught 0.8 days early
70% risk 205km away verify
Confirmed: M5.28 Vanuatu Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-07
M4.1 INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REGION
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 1.0 days early
70% risk 564km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REGION
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 79.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 79.7 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-07
M3.8 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
region: Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 238km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 14.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-07
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 39.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 39.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 89.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 89.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 1.5 days early
85% risk 169km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.2 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO)
region: Caucasus (Georgia + Greater Caucasus)
caught 1.3 days early
50% risk 102km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 8.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 8.6 min)
Earthquake A
2026-09-06
M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Swarm 19.2 -155.4
caught 1.5 days early
54% risk 7km away verify
Confirmed: M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 38.7 min)
Earthquake A
2026-09-06
M3.02 38 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Caribbean (Puerto Rico Trench)
caught 0.6 days early
70% risk 21km away verify
Confirmed: M3.02 38 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M5.2 123 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 1.8 days early
85% risk 669km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 123 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M3.6 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 0.2 days early
70% risk 270km away verify
Confirmed: M3.6 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 1.2 days early
85% risk 298km away verify
Confirmed: M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.15 Georgia-Armenia-Türkiye Border Region
region: Turkey (Anatolian Plate)
caught 1.3 days early
50% risk 735km away verify
Confirmed: M4.15 Georgia-Armenia-Türkiye Border Region
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=8.0, z=2.8)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=8.0, z=2.8)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=7.7, z=2.6)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=7.7, z=2.6)
Geyser B
2026-09-06
Riverside Geyser eruption (lead: 126 min)
region: Yellowstone Riverside
caught 0.1 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Riverside Geyser eruption (lead: 126 min)
Geyser B
2026-09-06
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 293 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 293 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.7 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.72 Venezuela
region: Venezuela (El Pilar-Bocono-San Sebastian)
caught 1.5 days early
70% risk 256km away verify
Confirmed: M4.72 Venezuela
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
region: Caribbean (Haiti-Puerto Rico-Lesser Antilles)
caught 0.4 days early
70% risk 484km away verify
Confirmed: M3.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M3.02 38 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Caribbean - Lesser Antilles
caught 0.7 days early
70% risk 536km away verify
Confirmed: M3.02 38 km N of Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands
region: Fiji / Lau Basin deep zone
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 255km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 south of the Fiji Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M2.7 32 km S of Akhiok, Alaska
region: Alaska-Aleutian Arc
caught 1.4 days early
85% risk 353km away verify
Confirmed: M2.7 32 km S of Akhiok, Alaska
Earthquake D
2026-09-06
M4.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
region: Philippines
caught 0.7 days early
85% risk 842km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M2.6 134 km W of Dunes City, Oregon
region: Cascadia Subduction Zone
caught 0.4 days early
50% risk 109km away verify
Confirmed: M2.6 134 km W of Dunes City, Oregon
Earthquake D
2026-09-06
M4.2 BANDA SEA
region: Indonesia - Banda/W Papua
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 428km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 BANDA SEA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.4 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.4 min)
Earthquake A
2026-09-06
M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Swarm 19.1 -155.4
caught 1.7 days early
60% risk 8km away verify
Confirmed: M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 116.4 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 116.4 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.3 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.3 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.8 TAIWAN REGION
region: Taiwan
caught 0.1 days early
50% risk 118km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 TAIWAN REGION
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.4 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.4 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.3 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
region: Mongolia (Altai-Khangai-Sayan)
caught 1.3 days early
50% risk 718km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.0 81 km NNW of Pārūn, Afghanistan
region: Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush)
caught 0.6 days early
85% risk 121km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 81 km NNW of Pārūn, Afghanistan
Earthquake A
2026-09-06
M2.8 16 km WSW of Johannesburg, CA
region: Southern California (UCERF3)
caught 2.1 days early
50% risk 85km away verify
Confirmed: M2.8 16 km WSW of Johannesburg, CA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 50.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M3.9 260 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
region: Western Aleutians / Near Islands (dateline crossing)
caught 0.6 days early
50% risk 176km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 260 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska
Earthquake A
2026-09-06
M2.53 3 km SSW of Volcano, Hawaii
region: Hawaii Big Island (deep tectonic, >=15 km)
caught 1.3 days early
50% risk 26km away verify
Confirmed: M2.53 3 km SSW of Volcano, Hawaii
Solar Flare B
2026-09-06
M4.0 Solar flare C5.0 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
56% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C5.0 class
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M3.6 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
region: Colombia-Ecuador Subduction
caught 0.2 days early
70% risk 262km away verify
Confirmed: M3.6 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 1.5 days early
85% risk 422km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 45.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 45.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.8 33 km NE of Calama, Chile
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 0.1 days early
85% risk 40km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 33 km NE of Calama, Chile
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M3.9 PANAMA
region: Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama)
caught 2.3 days early
70% risk 125km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 PANAMA
Earthquake D
2026-09-06
M4.0 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND
region: New Zealand - North (Hikurangi)
caught 0.0 days early
70% risk 376km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
region: Alpine Fault (South Island NZ)
caught 0.9 days early
70% risk 57km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.55 Yunnan, China
region: China (Sichuan-Yunnan)
caught 1.4 days early
70% risk 170km away verify
Confirmed: M4.55 Yunnan, China
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.97 Samoa Islands
region: Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise
caught 2.2 days early
70% risk 130km away verify
Confirmed: M4.97 Samoa Islands
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
region: New Zealand - South (Fiordland/Alpine)
caught 0.9 days early
70% risk 115km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M3.7 OFFSHORE MICHOACAN, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 0.1 days early
70% risk 154km away verify
Confirmed: M3.7 OFFSHORE MICHOACAN, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 85.6 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M3.1 ROMANIA
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 0.6 days early
50% risk 438km away verify
Confirmed: M3.1 ROMANIA
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN
region: SW Japan (Kyushu-W Honshu / Nankai)
caught 1.3 days early
70% risk 346km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M5.34 South Sandwich Islands Region
region: South Sandwich Islands
caught 2.0 days early
85% risk 233km away verify
Confirmed: M5.34 South Sandwich Islands Region
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.2 65 km S of Camaná, Peru
region: Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab)
caught 0.1 days early
70% risk 247km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 65 km S of Camaná, Peru
Earthquake D
2026-09-06
M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 0.0 days early
100% risk 628km away verify
Confirmed: M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M3.9 MYANMAR
region: Myanmar-Bangladesh (Sunda Continuation)
caught 0.7 days early
85% risk 156km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 MYANMAR
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.1 NEPAL
region: Nepal-Himalaya
caught 0.4 days early
81% risk 205km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 NEPAL
Earthquake A
2026-09-06
M1.6 Costa Siciliana nord-orientale (Messina)
region: Italy (Apennines-Sicily)
caught 2.3 days early
85% risk 79km away verify
Confirmed: M1.6 Costa Siciliana nord-orientale (Messina)
Earthquake A
2026-09-06
M5.1 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu
region: 96 Km Ese Of Isangel, Vanuatu
caught 1.8 days early
71% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M5.1 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.6 Kermadec Islands region
region: Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction)
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 227km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 Kermadec Islands region
Earthquake B
2026-09-06
M5.28 Vanuatu Islands
region: Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter)
caught 1.9 days early
85% risk 205km away verify
Confirmed: M5.28 Vanuatu Islands
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 47.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 47.6 min)
Geyser A
2026-09-06
Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 1154 min)
region: Yellowstone Great Fountain
caught 0.8 days early
82% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Fountain Geyser eruption (lead: 1154 min)
Geyser A
2026-09-06
Riverside Geyser eruption (lead: 617 min)
region: Yellowstone Riverside
caught 0.4 days early
64% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Riverside Geyser eruption (lead: 617 min)
Geyser A
2026-09-06
Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 634 min)
region: Yellowstone Daisy
caught 0.4 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Daisy Geyser eruption (lead: 634 min)
Geyser A
2026-09-06
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 448 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.3 days early
85% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 448 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 93.6 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-06
M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca
caught 0.2 days early
85% risk 197km away verify
Confirmed: M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-06
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 21.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 2.5 days early
85% risk 169km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 185km away verify
Confirmed: M4.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 33.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
region: Red Sea Rift / Yemen / Gulf of Aden
caught 2.3 days early
70% risk 440km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.93 Off Coast of Oregon
region: Juan de Fuca Ridge
caught 1.2 days early
70% risk 231km away verify
Confirmed: M4.93 Off Coast of Oregon
Solar Flare A
2026-09-05
Solar flare B8.4 class
region: Global
caught 0.3 days early
52% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Solar flare B8.4 class
Earthquake D
2026-09-05
M4.3 155 km SSW of Acajutla, El Salvador
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 0.3 days early
85% risk 643km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 155 km SSW of Acajutla, El Salvador
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece
region: Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
caught 2.3 days early
70% risk 247km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M3.8 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 0.1 days early
50% risk 83km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=7.1, z=2.6)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=7.1, z=2.6)
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.63 Solomon Islands
region: Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands
caught 0.5 days early
85% risk 498km away verify
Confirmed: M4.63 Solomon Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M3.1 20 km south of Whakatane
region: New Zealand
caught 0.5 days early
70% risk 464km away verify
Confirmed: M3.1 20 km south of Whakatane
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 56.7 min)
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M5.1 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu
region: Aftershock Zone M5.6 -19.8 170.2
caught 2.3 days early
75% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M5.1 96 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 30.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 30.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 75.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 75.7 min)
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
region: Swarm 19.1 -155.4
caught 2.7 days early
65% risk 8km away verify
Confirmed: M2.69 2 km WSW of Pāhala, Hawaii
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 8.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 8.6 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 13.0 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
78% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 13.0 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 73.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 73.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 43.6 min)
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.3 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
region: Mongolia (Altai-Khangai-Sayan)
caught 2.3 days early
70% risk 718km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 RUSSIA-MONGOLIA BORDER REGION
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka
region: Kuril-Kamchatka Arc
caught 2.6 days early
85% risk 298km away verify
Confirmed: M4.83 Off East Coast of Kamchatka
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M2.8 76 km S of Kaktovik, Alaska
region: Swarm 69.4 -143.7
caught 2.6 days early
50% risk 8km away verify
Confirmed: M2.8 76 km S of Kaktovik, Alaska
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M3.18 7 km WNW of Maricao, Puerto Rico
region: Swarm 18.0 -66.9
caught 1.9 days early
53% risk 25km away verify
Confirmed: M3.18 7 km WNW of Maricao, Puerto Rico
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.0 81 km NNW of Pārūn, Afghanistan
region: Afghanistan-Pakistan (Hindu Kush)
caught 1.6 days early
85% risk 121km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 81 km NNW of Pārūn, Afghanistan
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 11.6 min)
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M4.81 Near Coast of Guerrero, Mexico
region: Mexico Pacific Coast (Guerrero-Oaxaca)
caught 1.4 days early
70% risk 37km away verify
Confirmed: M4.81 Near Coast of Guerrero, Mexico
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 0.9 days early
70% risk 628km away verify
Confirmed: M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.39 Banda Sea
region: Indonesia - Banda/W Papua
caught 1.3 days early
70% risk 559km away verify
Confirmed: M4.39 Banda Sea
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.96 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan
region: NE Japan (E Honshu-Tohoku-Hokkaido)
caught 0.8 days early
70% risk 134km away verify
Confirmed: M4.96 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M5.25 Flores Region, Indonesia
region: Swarm -8.2 120.7
caught 2.8 days early
50% risk 4km away verify
Confirmed: M5.25 Flores Region, Indonesia
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M3.18 7 km WNW of Maricao, Puerto Rico
region: Swarm 18.1 -66.9
caught 1.9 days early
50% risk 25km away verify
Confirmed: M3.18 7 km WNW of Maricao, Puerto Rico
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 106.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.1 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 106.6 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M5.55 Solomon Islands
region: Solomon Islands / Santa Cruz Arc
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 270km away verify
Confirmed: M5.55 Solomon Islands
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile
region: Chile/Peru Subduction Zone
caught 2.5 days early
85% risk 422km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 129 km ENE of Taltal, Chile
Solar Flare B
2026-09-05
M4.0 Solar flare C6.4 class
region: Global
caught 0.1 days early
52% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C6.4 class
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.4 21 km SW of Sipí, Colombia
region: Colombia-Ecuador Subduction
caught 2.7 days early
67% risk 294km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 21 km SW of Sipí, Colombia
Earthquake D
2026-09-05
M4.5 87 km NNW of Sinabang, Indonesia
region: Indonesia - N/Central Sumatra
caught 0.0 days early
82% risk 495km away verify
Confirmed: M4.5 87 km NNW of Sinabang, Indonesia
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M4.8 33 km NE of Calama, Chile
region: Northern Chile (Arica/Antofagasta)
caught 1.1 days early
85% risk 40km away verify
Confirmed: M4.8 33 km NE of Calama, Chile
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.0 KAGSR
region: Komandorski Islands (W Aleutian)
caught 0.2 days early
48% risk 186km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 KAGSR
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M2.7 HAITI REGION
region: Caribbean - Hispaniola (Enriquillo)
caught 0.3 days early
48% risk 234km away verify
Confirmed: M2.7 HAITI REGION
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M3.9 PANAMA
region: Central America SE (Costa Rica-Panama)
caught 3.3 days early
67% risk 125km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 PANAMA
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M3.9 12 km NNE of Rahotu, New Zealand
region: New Zealand - North (Hikurangi)
caught 0.4 days early
67% risk 269km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 12 km NNE of Rahotu, New Zealand
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
region: New Zealand - South (Fiordland/Alpine)
caught 1.9 days early
48% risk 115km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 35 km north-east of Milford Sound
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
region: Mexico Pacific - Guerrero gap
caught 0.4 days early
48% risk 109km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 OFFSHORE GUERRERO, MEXICO
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M3.3 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
region: Alpine Fault (South Island NZ)
caught 1.3 days early
80% risk 246km away verify
Confirmed: M3.3 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M5.2 77 km SSW of Sibolga, Indonesia
region: Sumatra (Mentawai Gap)
caught 0.3 days early
77% risk 321km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 77 km SSW of Sibolga, Indonesia
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.55 Yunnan, China
region: China (Sichuan-Yunnan)
caught 2.4 days early
73% risk 170km away verify
Confirmed: M4.55 Yunnan, China
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M3.9 ROMANIA
region: Ukraine (Carpathians-Crimea-Vrancea)
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 508km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 ROMANIA
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.26 Iran-Iraq Border Region
region: Iran (Zagros-Alborz)
caught 2.1 days early
72% risk 807km away verify
Confirmed: M4.26 Iran-Iraq Border Region
Earthquake A
2026-09-05
M4.97 Samoa Islands
region: Samoa-Tonga Outer Rise
caught 3.2 days early
85% risk 130km away verify
Confirmed: M4.97 Samoa Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.15 Georgia-Armenia-Türkiye Border Region
region: Turkey (Anatolian Plate)
caught 2.9 days early
76% risk 735km away verify
Confirmed: M4.15 Georgia-Armenia-Türkiye Border Region
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.4 124 km S of Dampit, Indonesia
region: Indonesia - Java/Sunda
caught 1.8 days early
71% risk 303km away verify
Confirmed: M4.4 124 km S of Dampit, Indonesia
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN
region: SW Japan (Kyushu-W Honshu / Nankai)
caught 2.3 days early
67% risk 346km away verify
Confirmed: M3.8 KYUSHU, JAPAN
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.2 65 km S of Camaná, Peru
region: Southern Peru (Arequipa/Cusco, Nazca intraslab)
caught 1.1 days early
67% risk 247km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 65 km S of Camaná, Peru
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M3.7 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
region: Tien Shan / Northwest China + Western Tien Shan (S. Kazakhstan)
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 385km away verify
Confirmed: M3.7 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia (Sunda Arc)
caught 1.0 days early
96% risk 628km away verify
Confirmed: M4.62 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 15.4 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 15.4 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.6 Kermadec Islands region
region: Kermadec Arc (Pacific-Australian subduction)
caught 1.0 days early
85% risk 227km away verify
Confirmed: M4.6 Kermadec Islands region
Earthquake B
2026-09-05
M4.69 Vanuatu Islands
region: Vanuatu Arc (New Hebrides + S Loyalty / Matthew-Hunter)
caught 0.8 days early
82% risk 110km away verify
Confirmed: M4.69 Vanuatu Islands
Earthquake C
2026-09-05
M4.44 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
region: Indonesia - Sulawesi/Molucca
caught 0.2 days early
82% risk 179km away verify
Confirmed: M4.44 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-05
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.6 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 3.6 min)
Geyser B
2026-09-04
Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 160 min)
region: Yellowstone Grand
caught 0.1 days early
63% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Grand Geyser eruption (lead: 160 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-04
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 19.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 19.7 min)
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-04
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 34.7 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 34.7 min)
Earthquake A
2026-09-04
M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
region: Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone
caught 3.6 days early
85% risk 169km away verify
Confirmed: M5.2 22 km SSE of Neiafu, Tonga
Earthquake A
2026-09-04
M4.2 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO)
region: Caucasus (Georgia + Greater Caucasus)
caught 3.3 days early
48% risk 102km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO)
Earthquake C
2026-09-04
M3.41 38 km NE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands
region: Caribbean - Lesser Antilles
caught 1.2 days early
48% risk 496km away verify
Confirmed: M3.41 38 km NE of Cruz Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands
Earthquake A
2026-09-04
M3.6 163 km SW of Adak, Alaska
region: Swarm 51.2 -178.4
caught 2.1 days early
51% risk 25km away verify
Confirmed: M3.6 163 km SW of Adak, Alaska
Earthquake B
2026-09-04
M4.99 Near Coast of Chiapas, Mexico
region: Mexico Pacific - Oaxaca/Tehuantepec
caught 1.2 days early
85% risk 267km away verify
Confirmed: M4.99 Near Coast of Chiapas, Mexico
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-04
Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 34.5 min)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 Old Faithful eruption (lead time: 34.5 min)
Earthquake B
2026-09-04
M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
region: Red Sea Rift / Yemen / Gulf of Aden
caught 3.3 days early
48% risk 440km away verify
Confirmed: M3.9 NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN
Solar Flare B
2026-09-04
M4.0 Solar flare C1.2 class
region: Global
caught 0.0 days early
52% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M4.0 Solar flare C1.2 class
Earthquake B
2026-09-04
M4.93 Off Coast of Oregon
region: Juan de Fuca Ridge
caught 2.2 days early
48% risk 231km away verify
Confirmed: M4.93 Off Coast of Oregon
Earthquake D
2026-09-04
M4.2 35 km S of Acajutla, El Salvador
region: Central America (Guatemala-Panama)
caught 0.0 days early
85% risk 585km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 35 km S of Acajutla, El Salvador
Earthquake B
2026-09-04
M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece
region: Greece-Aegean-Western Turkey
caught 3.3 days early
67% risk 247km away verify
Confirmed: M4.3 5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece
Earthquake C
2026-09-04
M4.2 35 km S of Acajutla, El Salvador
region: Central America NW (Guatemala-Nicaragua)
caught 0.0 days early
82% risk 169km away verify
Confirmed: M4.2 35 km S of Acajutla, El Salvador
Earthquake C
2026-09-04
M6.0 New Ireland Region, Papua New Guinea
region: Papua New Guinea - Solomon Islands
caught 0.8 days early
85% risk 438km away verify
Confirmed: M6.0 New Ireland Region, Papua New Guinea
Geyser Eruption B
2026-09-04
old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=6.6, z=2.5)
region: Yellowstone
caught 0.0 days early
55% risk 0km away verify
Confirmed: M0.0 old_faithful tremor anomaly (power_db=6.6, z=2.5)
Historical Backtest Results

Models backtested against 21 days of historical USGS data.

RegionTPFPFNPrecisionRecallF1
oklahoma 2 26 0 7.1% 100.0% 13.3%
samoa 1 3 0 25.0% 100.0% 40.0%
ucerf3 8 26 0 23.5% 100.0% 38.1%
cascadia 1 27 0 3.6% 100.0% 6.9%
wasatch 1 27 0 3.6% 100.0% 6.9%
new_madrid 0 24 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
central_utah 0 2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
hurricane_fault 0 2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
alaska 0 4 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Verification Methodology

Every prediction is SHA-256 hashed at creation time and added to a tamper-proof hash chain. When a real-world event occurs (confirmed by USGS, NOAA, EMSC, NASA FIRMS, or NWS), the system automatically matches it against pre-existing predictions within 300km and 7 days.

Grading: A (80+ pts) to F (<20 pts) based on distance accuracy (0-50 pts) + prediction lead time (0-50 pts). Grade A requires <50km distance accuracy AND 72+ hours of advance warning.