coverage = fraction of catalog events preceded by a logged, matched forecast; NOT a skill claim. It rises as we alarm MORE, so it cannot distinguish a good forecast from a wide one -- see measured_skill.
Coverage - M5
Hit
173
N
187
Coverage - M55
Hit
49
N
50
Coverage - M6
Hit
12
N
12
M6 Rows
Band Max
Band Min
Band Width Mag
Date
Hash Prefix
Hit
Lead Days
Mag
Match Distance Km
Model
Place
Tightness Note
8
4.9
3.1
2026-09-11
ac5ca35c75255ef6
True
20.6
6.5
1264
tensor_eq_per_region
126 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
3.3
4.7
2026-09-03
713da8eaa76e8c3f
True
17.3
6.3
854.4
tensor_eq_per_region
84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
4.7
3.3
2026-09-02
616662d965d5bfbb
True
20.4
6.2
387.2
tensor_eq_per_region
South Sandwich Islands region
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
7
4.5
2.5
2026-08-27
9cd4e28210d8d11b
True
20.1
6
575
tensor_eq_per_region
145 km N of Caluula, Somalia
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
4.9
3.1
2026-08-24
05c1221d66158b01
True
20.4
6
1152
tensor_eq_per_region
211 km NNE of Lospalos, Timor Leste
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
5
3
2026-08-23
3afc918c8a874c29
True
20.4
6
593
tensor_eq_per_region
32 km SSW of HonchÅ, Japan
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
7
5
2
2026-08-22
04efb3e37eb76baf
True
18.5
6.2
334.7
tensor_eq_per_region
Scotia Sea
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
4.6
3.4
2026-08-20
b99ca59718bac7e3
True
20.5
6.7
1444
tensor_eq_per_region
37 km NE of Tambo, Peru
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
5
3
2026-08-16
cb281bb2af36653f
True
20.4
6.1
487.2
tensor_eq_per_region
55 km NNE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
4.9
3.1
2026-08-15
aba1d4d8c2306bca
True
20.5
6.9
2191
tensor_eq_per_region
9 km WNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
4.9
3.1
2026-08-14
aba1d4d8c2306bca
True
20
6.1
757
tensor_eq_per_region
62 km N of Ende, Indonesia
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
8
4.9
3.1
2026-08-14
aba1d4d8c2306bca
True
20
7.8
757
tensor_eq_per_region
64 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia
a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart
Measured Skill
Age Days
3.8
Area Skill Score
0.4793
Area Skill Score Is Trajectory
True
Area Skill Score Single Point
0.4939
Event Hit Rate
0.8676
Generated Utc
2026-09-09T10:04:37+00:00
Mean Model Bss Oos
0.0528
Min Mag
5
N Covered
354
N Events
408
N Models
4
N Models Positive
3
Status
ok
Tau Alarm Fraction
0.8799
Window Days
90
Measured Skill - Labels
Area Skill Score
Molchan Area Skill Score. 0.5 = NO SKILL. Cannot be improved by alarming more: tau -> 1 drives ASS -> 0.5. Integrated over the FULL trajectory when area_skill_score_is_trajectory is true; the single-point two-segment approximation is kept in area_skill_score_single_point and is OPTIMISTIC.
Honest Reading
ASS is the operator number (where to look); BSS is the pricing number (how likely). They are different products and a monotone recalibration moves BSS while leaving ASS fixed.
Mean Model Bss Oos
Brier Skill Score, OUT-OF-SAMPLE from an expanding-window walk-forward. 0 = no better than quoting the base rate. n-weighted MEAN over models -- NOT a pooled refit, which destroys resolution (29% single vs 4.56% pooled).
Tau Alarm Fraction
fraction of climatology-weighted seismicity held under alarm. Random alarming at this fraction catches this fraction of events.
when-issued rate: fraction of expired M4+ predictions whose window produced an event at or above the predicted magnitude floor, trailing 30 d
N Predictions
682
When Issued Full Mag Pct
65.4
Skill - Climatology Ref
Label
naive USGS-catalog climatology, walk-forward backtest Aug 2026
Rate Pct
28.7
Source
reports/magnitude_band_calibration_backtest_v2.md
Spatial Localization
Age Days
0
Frac Test Within 50Km Of Past
0.956
Generated Utc
2026-09-13T04:31:46.256388+00:00
Honest Label
SPATIAL localization only -- WHERE earthquakes cluster (the field-standard hazard map). This is NOT an earthquake prediction/when rate, and the ASS must NEVER be read as a percent of quakes predicted; the temporal (when) skill is measured separately and is near-zero. Reproduce: python -m earthquake.smoothed_seismicity --validate
Mean Nn Dist Km
14.5
Median Nn Dist Km
6.6
Metric
spatial localization: Molchan Area Skill Score + median epicentral distance from a real future M5+ to the nearest past-seismicity
Molchan Ass
0.9782
N Test
5039
N Train
66634
Note
spatial_auc 0.5 / ASS 0.5 = uniform (no skill); compare to current product ASS 0.48, 1442 km
Spatial Auc Vs Uniform
0.9784
Status
ok
Spatial Localization - No Skill Reference
Current Product Ass
0.48
Molchan Ass
0.5
Spatial Auc Vs Uniform
0.5
Raw JSON
{
"coverage": {
"label": "coverage = fraction of catalog events preceded by a logged, matched forecast; NOT a skill claim. It rises as we alarm MORE, so it cannot distinguish a good forecast from a wide one -- see measured_skill.",
"m5": {
"hit": 173,
"n": 187
},
"m55": {
"hit": 49,
"n": 50
},
"m6": {
"hit": 12,
"n": 12
}
},
"generated_utc": "2026-09-13T04:45:35+00:00",
"ground_truth": "USGS ComCat, global M5.0+ (misses are real misses)",
"m6_rows": [
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 4.9,
"band_width_mag": 3.1,
"date": "2026-09-11",
"hash_prefix": "ac5ca35c75255ef6",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.6,
"mag": 6.5,
"match_distance_km": 1263.8,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "126 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 3.3,
"band_width_mag": 4.7,
"date": "2026-09-03",
"hash_prefix": "713da8eaa76e8c3f",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 17.3,
"mag": 6.3,
"match_distance_km": 854.4,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "84 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 4.7,
"band_width_mag": 3.3,
"date": "2026-09-02",
"hash_prefix": "616662d965d5bfbb",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.4,
"mag": 6.2,
"match_distance_km": 387.2,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "South Sandwich Islands region",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.5,
"band_width_mag": 2.5,
"date": "2026-08-27",
"hash_prefix": "9cd4e28210d8d11b",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.1,
"mag": 6,
"match_distance_km": 575.0,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "145 km N of Caluula, Somalia",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 4.9,
"band_width_mag": 3.1,
"date": "2026-08-24",
"hash_prefix": "05c1221d66158b01",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.4,
"mag": 6,
"match_distance_km": 1152.5,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "211 km NNE of Lospalos, Timor Leste",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 5.0,
"band_width_mag": 3.0,
"date": "2026-08-23",
"hash_prefix": "3afc918c8a874c29",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.4,
"mag": 6,
"match_distance_km": 593.0,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "32 km SSW of Honch\u014d, Japan",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 5.0,
"band_width_mag": 2.0,
"date": "2026-08-22",
"hash_prefix": "04efb3e37eb76baf",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 18.5,
"mag": 6.2,
"match_distance_km": 334.7,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "Scotia Sea",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 4.6,
"band_width_mag": 3.4,
"date": "2026-08-20",
"hash_prefix": "b99ca59718bac7e3",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.5,
"mag": 6.7,
"match_distance_km": 1444.3,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "37 km NE of Tambo, Peru",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 5.0,
"band_width_mag": 3.0,
"date": "2026-08-16",
"hash_prefix": "cb281bb2af36653f",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.4,
"mag": 6.1,
"match_distance_km": 487.2,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "55 km NNE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 4.9,
"band_width_mag": 3.1,
"date": "2026-08-15",
"hash_prefix": "aba1d4d8c2306bca",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.5,
"mag": 6.9,
"match_distance_km": 2191.2,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "9 km WNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 4.9,
"band_width_mag": 3.1,
"date": "2026-08-14",
"hash_prefix": "aba1d4d8c2306bca",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.0,
"mag": 6.1,
"match_distance_km": 757.0,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "62 km N of Ende, Indonesia",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 8.0,
"band_min": 4.9,
"band_width_mag": 3.1,
"date": "2026-08-14",
"hash_prefix": "aba1d4d8c2306bca",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.0,
"mag": 7.8,
"match_distance_km": 757.0,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "64 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
}
],
"measured_skill": {
"age_days": 3.8,
"area_skill_score": 0.4792674689955836,
"area_skill_score_is_trajectory": true,
"area_skill_score_single_point": 0.49386420162057854,
"event_hit_rate": 0.8676470588235294,
"generated_utc": "2026-09-09T10:04:37+00:00",
"labels": {
"area_skill_score": "Molchan Area Skill Score. 0.5 = NO SKILL. Cannot be improved by alarming more: tau -> 1 drives ASS -> 0.5. Integrated over the FULL trajectory when area_skill_score_is_trajectory is true; the single-point two-segment approximation is kept in area_skill_score_single_point and is OPTIMISTIC.",
"honest_reading": "ASS is the operator number (where to look); BSS is the pricing number (how likely). They are different products and a monotone recalibration moves BSS while leaving ASS fixed.",
"mean_model_bss_oos": "Brier Skill Score, OUT-OF-SAMPLE from an expanding-window walk-forward. 0 = no better than quoting the base rate. n-weighted MEAN over models -- NOT a pooled refit, which destroys resolution (29% single vs 4.56% pooled).",
"tau_alarm_fraction": "fraction of climatology-weighted seismicity held under alarm. Random alarming at this fraction catches this fraction of events."
},
"mean_model_bss_oos": 0.05280220574563711,
"min_mag": 5.0,
"n_covered": 354,
"n_events": 408,
"n_models": 4,
"n_models_positive": 3,
"no_skill_reference": {
"area_skill_score": 0.5,
"bss": 0.0
},
"per_model": {
"earthquake_magnitude_predictor": {
"base_rate": 0.7328897338403042,
"bss_calibrated_best": 0.0035009870593349923,
"n_oos": 632
},
"swarm_detector_reactive": {
"base_rate": 0.748995983935743,
"bss_calibrated_best": -0.03428066178385114,
"n_oos": 299
},
"tensor_eq_per_region": {
"base_rate": 0.7864476386036962,
"bss_calibrated_best": 0.0795422296376399,
"n_oos": 2046
},
"tensor_magnitude_range_v1": {
"base_rate": 0.8326180257510729,
"bss_calibrated_best": 0.058721393169499536,
"n_oos": 420
}
},
"status": "ok",
"tau_alarm_fraction": 0.8799186555823724,
"window_days": 90
},
"regions": [
{
"cov_90d": null,
"key": "italy",
"label": "Italy",
"n_30d": 1,
"rows_30d": [
{
"band_max": 7.5,
"band_min": 2.5,
"band_width_mag": 5.0,
"date": "2026-08-16",
"hash_prefix": "1cd5fe6594cb700e",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.7,
"mag": 4.1,
"match_distance_km": 395.9,
"model": "tensor_magnitude_range_v1",
"place": "0 km NE of Casano-Dogana-Isola, Italy",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
}
]
},
{
"cov_90d": {
"hit": 12,
"min_mag": 4.5,
"n": 12,
"window_days": 91
},
"key": "greece",
"label": "Greece & Aegean",
"n_30d": 11,
"rows_30d": [
{
"band_max": 7.7,
"band_min": 4.4,
"band_width_mag": 3.3,
"date": "2026-09-12",
"hash_prefix": "c5c8889bcfaaa3a8",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.6,
"mag": 4.8,
"match_distance_km": 377.6,
"model": "earthquake_magnitude_predictor",
"place": "17 km WSW of Lixo\u00fari, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.4,
"band_width_mag": 2.6,
"date": "2026-09-08",
"hash_prefix": "99dd4b3ad30a4e63",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 19.9,
"mag": 4.6,
"match_distance_km": 300.5,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "1 km NNW of Katoch\u00ed, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.4,
"band_width_mag": 2.6,
"date": "2026-09-08",
"hash_prefix": "99dd4b3ad30a4e63",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 19.7,
"mag": 4.3,
"match_distance_km": 439.6,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "13 km ESE of Pogradec, Albania",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.4,
"band_width_mag": 2.6,
"date": "2026-09-08",
"hash_prefix": "99dd4b3ad30a4e63",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 19.7,
"mag": 4.3,
"match_distance_km": 246.7,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "5 km WSW of Antirrio, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.4,
"band_width_mag": 2.6,
"date": "2026-08-29",
"hash_prefix": "d331c5ea57c3114d",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.6,
"mag": 4.8,
"match_distance_km": 476.4,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "13 km ENE of Himar\u00eb, Albania",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.2,
"band_width_mag": 2.8,
"date": "2026-08-29",
"hash_prefix": "e049cd5a64f94cc5",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.7,
"mag": 4.5,
"match_distance_km": 763.3,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "26 km W of \u00c9mponas, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.4,
"band_width_mag": 2.6,
"date": "2026-08-28",
"hash_prefix": "d331c5ea57c3114d",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 19.6,
"mag": 4.5,
"match_distance_km": 191.2,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "2 km NNW of \u00c1stros, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.7,
"band_width_mag": 2.3,
"date": "2026-08-25",
"hash_prefix": "8fcdea5657a77d87",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.4,
"mag": 4.4,
"match_distance_km": 538.7,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "15 km W of Lushnj\u00eb, Albania",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.7,
"band_width_mag": 2.3,
"date": "2026-08-23",
"hash_prefix": "af56798bc1c9d2f9",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.1,
"mag": 4.2,
"match_distance_km": 418.4,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "81 km SW of Kastr\u00ed, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": null,
"band_min": null,
"band_width_mag": null,
"date": "2026-08-15",
"hash_prefix": null,
"hit": false,
"lead_days": null,
"mag": 4.1,
"match_distance_km": null,
"model": null,
"place": "45 km SSW of L\u00e1rdos, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.4,
"band_width_mag": 2.6,
"date": "2026-08-14",
"hash_prefix": "d331c5ea57c3114d",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 5.3,
"mag": 4.1,
"match_distance_km": 401.5,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "14 km SSW of Rodot\u00f3pi, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
}
]
},
{
"cov_90d": null,
"key": "turkey",
"label": "Turkey & Caucasus",
"n_30d": 7,
"rows_30d": [
{
"band_max": null,
"band_min": null,
"band_width_mag": null,
"date": "2026-09-03",
"hash_prefix": null,
"hit": false,
"lead_days": null,
"mag": 4.1,
"match_distance_km": null,
"model": null,
"place": "18 km NW of Sulakyurt, Turkey",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": null,
"band_min": null,
"band_width_mag": null,
"date": "2026-09-01",
"hash_prefix": null,
"hit": false,
"lead_days": null,
"mag": 4,
"match_distance_km": null,
"model": null,
"place": "16 km N of Shamakhi, Azerbaijan",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.2,
"band_width_mag": 2.8,
"date": "2026-08-29",
"hash_prefix": "e049cd5a64f94cc5",
"hit": true,
"lead_days": 20.7,
"mag": 4.5,
"match_distance_km": 763.3,
"model": "tensor_eq_per_region",
"place": "26 km W of \u00c9mponas, Greece",
"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
{
"band_max": 7.0,
"band_min": 4.6,
"band_width_mag": 2.4,
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},
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},
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},
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"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
},
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"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
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"tightness_note": "a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"
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},
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},
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