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Published so the MISSES are visible at a threshold where they actually occur; M6+ reads 6 of 6 this month, so m6_rows alone shows none.","m6_rows":[{"band_max":8.0,"band_min":4.8,"band_width_mag":3.2,"date":"2026-10-13","hash_prefix":"4269aa890e18c308","hit":true,"lead_days":6.4,"mag":6,"match_distance_km":259.8,"model":"tensor_magnitude_range_v1","place":"126 km S of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea","tightness_note":"a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"},{"band_max":7.5,"band_min":4.5,"band_width_mag":3.0,"date":"2026-10-13","hash_prefix":"72e2eaebebf569e8","hit":true,"lead_days":6.6,"mag":6.8,"match_distance_km":1392.4,"model":"tensor_eq_per_region","place":"central Mid-Atlantic Ridge","tightness_note":"a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; these two numbers are what tell them apart"},{"band_max":6.7,"band_min":4.5,"band_width_mag":2.2,"date":"2026-10-13","hash_prefix":"54001d52262eb903","hit":true,"lead_days":6.4,"mag":6.7,"match_distance_km":1527.3,"model":"earthquake_magnitude_predictor","place":"central Mid-Atlantic Ridge","tightness_note":"a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; 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Cannot be improved by alarming more: tau -> 1 drives ASS -> 0.5. Integrated over the FULL trajectory when area_skill_score_is_trajectory is true; the single-point two-segment approximation is kept in area_skill_score_single_point and is OPTIMISTIC.","area_skill_score_corrections":"Detail for the two keys above: status and reason; each value's 200-draw shuffle null (p95 and one-sided p) and 1000-draw bootstrap 95% CI over events; and the published definition recomputed in the same call, so each difference is measured on an identical window. Computed in a separate process with its own time budget; its failure nulls only these keys.","area_skill_score_full_support_floor":"A CHECK, not a replacement. Same as area_skill_score except the reference map gives every alarmed 1-degree cell a small floor weight (0.1 x the total reference weight, spread over all alarmed cells). In the published reference a zero-weight cell -- one with no M>=min_mag earthquake in the 3 years before the window -- costs nothing to alarm. If this matches area_skill_score, the alarms were not earning free credit in such cells. 0.5 = NO SKILL. null as above.","area_skill_score_lookback_declustered":"Molchan Area Skill Score, same window, trajectory and raw risk-score ranking as area_skill_score, with ONE change: aftershocks of earthquakes in the 5 years before the window are removed before scoring (Gardner-Knopoff over lookback + window; targets are the kept events inside the window). area_skill_score declusters inside the window only, so it counts aftershocks of earthquakes just before the window as targets; this one does not. 0.5 = NO SKILL; below 0.5 is worse than no skill. A score, not a percentage. null when the separate computation failed, timed out or could not be matched to the published window: see area_skill_score_corrections.","honest_reading":"ASS is the operator number (where to look); BSS is the pricing number (how likely). They are different products and a monotone recalibration moves BSS while leaving ASS fixed.","mean_model_bss_oos":"Brier Skill Score, OUT-OF-SAMPLE from an expanding-window walk-forward. 0 = no better than quoting the base rate. n-weighted MEAN over models -- NOT a pooled refit, which destroys resolution (29% single vs 4.56% pooled).","tau_alarm_fraction":"fraction of climatology-weighted seismicity held under alarm. Random alarming at this fraction catches this fraction of events."},"mean_model_bss_oos":0.06816460656682355,"min_mag":5.0,"n_covered":351,"n_events":411,"n_models":4,"n_models_positive":4,"no_skill_reference":{"area_skill_score":0.5,"area_skill_score_full_support_floor":0.5,"area_skill_score_lookback_declustered":0.5,"bss":0.0},"per_model":{"earthquake_magnitude_predictor":{"base_rate":0.770687237026648,"bss_calibrated_best":0.014248080456241041,"n_oos":856},"swarm_detector_reactive":{"base_rate":0.7112403100775194,"bss_calibrated_best":0.0019543537537275446,"n_oos":310},"tensor_eq_per_region":{"base_rate":0.8116399082568807,"bss_calibrated_best":0.11044663149042211,"n_oos":2093},"tensor_magnitude_range_v1":{"base_rate":0.8446389496717724,"bss_calibrated_best":0.028422250569786423,"n_oos":549}},"status":"ok","tau_alarm_fraction":0.8991278069506156,"window_days":90},"regions":[{"cov_90d":null,"key":"italy","label":"Italy","n_30d":2,"rows_30d":[{"band_max":7.5,"band_min":2.0,"band_width_mag":5.5,"date":"2026-10-08","hash_prefix":"5be177e1ac4712ed","hit":true,"lead_days":6.3,"mag":4.9,"match_distance_km":271.5,"model":"earthquake_magnitude_predictor","place":"81 km NNW of Malfa, Italy","tightness_note":"a wide band or a distant centroid is COVERAGE, not precision; 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